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A bound testing analysis of Wagner's law in Nigeria: 1970-2006

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  • M. Adetunji Babatunde

Abstract

This study tests Wagner's law (the tendency for government activities to expand along with economic expansion) for Nigeria using annual time series data between 1970 and 2006. It adopts the bounds test approach proposed by Pesaran et al. (2001) based on unrestricted error correction model (UECM) and Toda and Yamamoto's (1995) Granger noncausality tests. Empirical results from the bounds test indicate that there exists no long-run relationship between government expenditure and output in Nigeria. In addition, Toda and Yamamoto's (1995) causality test results show that Wagner's law does not hold for more than the period being tested. Rather we found a weak empirical support in the proposition by Keynes that public expenditure is an exogenous factor and a policy instrument for increasing national income.

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  • M. Adetunji Babatunde, 2011. "A bound testing analysis of Wagner's law in Nigeria: 1970-2006," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(21), pages 2843-2850.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:43:y:2011:i:21:p:2843-2850
    DOI: 10.1080/00036840903425012
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ferda Halicioglu, 2007. "A Multivariate Causality Analysis of Export and Growth for Turkey," EERI Research Paper Series EERI_RP_2007_05, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
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    1. Nayak, Dinesh Kumar & Hazarika, Bhabesh, 2022. "Linkage between Income and Government Expenditure at Indian Sub-nationals: A Second Generation Panel Co-integration Techniques," Working Papers 22/374, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
    2. E. Chuke Nwude & Tarila Boloupremo, 2018. "Public Expenditure and National Income: Time Series Evidence from Nigeria," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 8(1), pages 71-76.
    3. Ampofo, Gideon Kwaku Minua & Cheng, Jinhua & Asante, Daniel Akwasi & Bosah, Philip, 2020. "Total natural resource rents, trade openness and economic growth in the top mineral-rich countries: New evidence from nonlinear and asymmetric analysis," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    4. Samad Bashirli & Ilkin Sabiroglu, 2013. "Testing Wagner’s Law in an Oil-Exporting Economy: the Case of Azerbaijan," Transition Studies Review, Springer;Central Eastern European University Network (CEEUN), vol. 20(3), pages 295-307, November.
    5. Philip Arestis & Hüseyin Şen & Ayşe Kaya, 2021. "On the linkage between government expenditure and output: empirics of the Keynesian view versus Wagner’s law," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 54(2), pages 265-303, May.
    6. Selim Demez, 2021. "Validity of Wagner’s Law in EU Member Transition Economies: Panel Causality Analysis," Journal of Economic Policy Researches, Istanbul University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 8(2), pages 199-210, July.
    7. Dongmin Yao & Yijing Chen & Yixuan Xu, 2021. "How Public Expenditure and Bank Credit Affect Growth: Provincial and Enterprise Level Causal Evidence from China's 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 22(1), pages 195-231, May.
    8. Ayad Hicham, 2020. "Government Expenditure and Economic Growth Nexus in Mena Countries: Frequency Domain Spectral Causality Analysis," Economics and Business, Sciendo, vol. 34(1), pages 60-77, January.
    9. Rambeli, Norimah & Awang Marikan, Dayang Affizah & Hashim, Emilda & Mohd. Ariffin, Siti Zubaidah & Hashim, Asmawi & M. Podivinsky, Jan, 2021. "The Determinants of Carbon Dioxide Emissions in Malaysia and Singapore," Jurnal Ekonomi Malaysia, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, vol. 55(2), pages 107-119.
    10. Hiroshi Ono, 2014. "The government expenditure-economic growth relation in Japan: an analysis by using the ADL test for threshold cointegration," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(28), pages 3523-3531, October.
    11. Hassan Mohammadi & Rati Ram, 2015. "Economic Development and Government Spending: An Exploration of Wagner’s Hypothesis during Fifty Years of Growth in East Asia," Economies, MDPI, vol. 3(4), pages 1-11, October.
    12. Ampah Isaac Kwesi & Kotosz Balázs, 2016. "Wagner versus Keynes: the causal nexus between Government Expenditures and Economic Growth: An Empirical study of Burkina Faso," Journal of Heterodox Economics, Sciendo, vol. 3(2), pages 74-101, December.
    13. Stephen Moore, 2016. "Wagner in Ireland: An Econometric Analysis," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 47(1), pages 69-103.
    14. Narayan, Seema & Rath, Badri Narayan & Narayan, Paresh Kumar, 2012. "Evidence of Wagner's law from Indian states," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 1548-1557.
    15. Olayiwola, Saheed O. & Bakare-Aremu, Tunde Abubakar & Abiodun, S.O., 2021. "Public Health Expenditure and Economic Growth in Nigeria: Testing of Wagner's Hypothesis," African Journal of Economic Review, African Journal of Economic Review, vol. 9(2), April.
    16. Ali, Wajid & Munir, Kashif, 2016. "Testing Wagner versus Keynesian Hypothesis for Pakistan: The Role of Aggregate and Disaggregate Expenditure," MPRA Paper 74570, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Ebrahim Merza & Noorah Alhasan, 2016. "Public Spending and Economic Growth in the Rentier State: The Case of Kuwait," Asian Social Science, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 12(8), pages 160-160, August.
    18. Megbowon Ebenezer* & Saul Ngarava & Nsikak-Abasi Etim & Oluwabunmi Popoola, 2019. "Impact of Government Expenditure on Agricultural Productivity in South Africa," The Journal of Social Sciences Research, Academic Research Publishing Group, vol. 5(12), pages 1734-1742, 12-2019.
    19. Omoshoro-Jones, Oyeyinka Sunday, 2016. "A Cointegration and Causality Test on Government Expenditure –Economic Growth Nexus: Empirical Evidence from a South African Province," MPRA Paper 102085, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 17 Oct 2017.
    20. Ibrahim Sahabi Muhammad & Muhammad Sabir Ibrahim, 2023. "Examining the Relationship between Government Spending and Economic Growth in Nigeria: An Application of Wagner’s Law Hypothesis," International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science, International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science (IJRISS), vol. 7(11), pages 125-133, November.

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