IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eso/journl/v47y2016i1p69-103.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Wagner in Ireland: An Econometric Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Stephen Moore

    (University College Cork, Ireland)

Abstract

This paper presents an econometric analysis of Wagner’s Law in Ireland for the period 1970-2012. To estimate the long run relationship between government expenditure and gross national product per capita the bounds testing procedure of Pesaran and Shin (2001) is employed. The analysis is performed using both real and nominal variables. The paper finds that although government expenditure has been rising over the period in question the rate of growth has not outpaced growth in GDP per capita, thus weighing against Wagner’s Law. Results are robust across a selection of the most prominent model specifications in the literature, and to the volatility in government spending during the recent crisis. Some policy considerations are also explored.

Suggested Citation

  • Stephen Moore, 2016. "Wagner in Ireland: An Econometric Analysis," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 47(1), pages 69-103.
    • Handle: RePEc:eso:journl:v:47:y:2016:i:1:p:69-103
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.esr.ie/article/view/506/126
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kojo Menyah & Yemane Wolde-Rufael, 2012. "Wagner'S Law Revisited: A Note From South Africa," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 80(2), pages 200-208, June.
    2. Durevall, Dick & Henrekson, Magnus, 2011. "The futile quest for a grand explanation of long-run government expenditure," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(7-8), pages 708-722, August.
    3. Tsangyao Chang & WenRong Liu & Steven Caudill, 2004. "A re-examination of Wagner's law for ten countries based on cointegration and error-correction modelling techniques," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(8), pages 577-589.
    4. V. Chandran Govindaraju & Ramesh Rao & Sajid Anwar, 2011. "Economic growth and government spending in Malaysia: a re-examination of Wagner and Keynesian views," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 44(3), pages 203-219, August.
    5. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    6. Bharat Kolluri & Michael Panik & Mahmoud Wahab, 2000. "Government expenditure and economic growth: evidence from G7 countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(8), pages 1059-1068.
    7. Chiung-Ju Huang, 2006. "Government Expenditures In China And Taiwan: Do They Follow Wagner¡¯S Law?," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 31(2), pages 139-148, December.
    8. Serena Lamartina & Andrea Zaghini, 2011. "Increasing Public Expenditure: Wagner's Law in OECD Countries," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 12(2), pages 149-164, May.
    9. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Nielsen, Ingrid & Smyth, Russell, 2008. "Panel data, cointegration, causality and Wagner's law: Empirical evidence from Chinese provinces," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 297-307, June.
    10. Loizides, John & Vamvoukas, George, 2005. "Government Expenditure and Economic Growth: Evidence from Trivariate Causality Testing," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 8(1), pages 1-28, May.
    11. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    12. Alan T. Peacock & Jack Wiseman, 1961. "The Growth of Public Expenditure in the United Kingdom," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number peac61-1.
    13. Beck, Morris, 1985. "Public Expenditure, Relative Prices, and Resource Allocation," Public Finance = Finances publiques, , vol. 40(1), pages 17-34.
    14. Perron, Pierre, 1989. "The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November.
    15. Anisul Islam, 2001. "Wagner's law revisited: cointegration and exogeneity tests for the USA," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(8), pages 509-515.
    16. Mohammed MoosaAgeli, 2013. "Wagner’s Law in Saudi Arabia 1970 - 2012: An Econometric Analysis," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 3(5), pages 647-659, May.
    17. Muthi Samudram & Mahendhiran Nair & Santha Vaithilingam, 2009. "Keynes and Wagner on government expenditures and economic development: the case of a developing economy," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 36(3), pages 713-713, June.
    18. Asuman Oktayer & Nagihan Oktayer, 2013. "Testing Wagner's Law for Turkey: Evidence from a Trivariate Causality Analysis," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2013(2), pages 284-301.
    19. Oxley, Les, 1994. "Cointegration, Causality and Wagner's Law: A Test for Britain 1870-1913," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 41(3), pages 286-298, August.
    20. Paresh Kumar Narayan & Arti Prasad & Baljeet Singh, 2008. "A test of the Wagner's hypothesis for the Fiji islands," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(21), pages 2793-2801.
    21. Facchini, Francois, 2014. "The determinants of public spending: a survey in a methodological perspective," MPRA Paper 53006, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    22. Kojo Menyah & Yemane Wolde-Rufael, 2013. "Government expenditure and economic growth: the ethiopian experience, 1950–2007," Journal of Developing Areas, Tennessee State University, College of Business, vol. 47(1), pages 263-280, January-J.
    23. M. Adetunji Babatunde, 2011. "A bound testing analysis of Wagner's law in Nigeria: 1970-2006," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(21), pages 2843-2850.
    24. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Smyth, Russell, 2005. "The residential demand for electricity in Australia: an application of the bounds testing approach to cointegration," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 467-474, March.
    25. Hassan Mohammadi & Murat Cak & Demet Cak, 2008. "Wagner's hypothesis," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 35(1), pages 94-106, January.
    26. Hondroyiannis, George & Papapetrou, Evangelia, 1995. "An Examination of Wagner's Law for Greece: A Cointegration Analysis," Public Finance = Finances publiques, , vol. 50(1), pages 67-79.
    27. Henning, John A & Tussing, A Dale, 1974. "Income Elasticity of the Demand for Public Expenditures in the United States," Public Finance = Finances publiques, , vol. 29(3-4), pages 325-341.
    28. Gould, Frank, 1983. "The Development of Public Expenditures in Western, Industrialised Countries: A Comparative Analysis," Public Finance = Finances publiques, , vol. 38(1), pages 38-69.
    29. Sinha, Dipendra, 2007. "Does the Wagner’s Law hold for Thailand? A Time Series Study," MPRA Paper 2560, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    30. Saten Kumar & Don J. Webber & Scott Fargher, 2012. "Wagner's Law revisited: cointegration and causality tests for New Zealand," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(5), pages 607-616, February.
    31. Christian Richter & Dimitrios Paparas, 2012. "The Validity of Wagner’s Law in the United Kingdom for the Period 1850-2010," Working Papers 2012.9, International Network for Economic Research - INFER.
    32. Ram, Rati, 1986. "Causality between Income and Government Expenditure: A Broad International Perspective," Public Finance = Finances publiques, , vol. 41(3), pages 393-414.
    33. Johann Bröthaler & Michael Getzner, 2011. "Fiscal Autonomy and Total Government Expenditure: An Austrian Case-study," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 17(2), pages 134-156, May.
    34. Kalam Mohammad Abul & Aziz Nusrate, 2009. "Growth of Government Expenditure in Bangladesh: An Empirical Enquiry into the Validity of Wagner's Law," Global Economy Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 9(2), pages 1-20, June.
    35. Muthi Samudram & Mahendhiran Nair & Santha Vaithilingam, 2009. "Keynes and Wagner on government expenditures and economic development: the case of a developing economy," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 36(3), pages 697-712, June.
    36. Rudra Prakash Pradhan, 2007. "Wagner’s Law: Is It Valid in India?," The IUP Journal of Public Finance, IUP Publications, vol. 0(2), pages 7-20, May.
    37. Henrekson, Magnus, 1993. "Wagner's Law--A Spurious Relationship?," Public Finance = Finances publiques, , vol. 48(3), pages 406-415.
    38. Clement A.U. Ighodaro & Dickson E. Oriakhi, 2010. "Does The Relationship Between Government Expenditure And Economic Growth Follow Wagner’s Law In Nigeria?," Annals of the University of Petrosani, Economics, University of Petrosani, Romania, vol. 10(2), pages 185-198.
    39. Dluhosch, Barbara & Zimmermann, Klaus W., 2006. "Some Second Thoughts on Wagner's Law," Working Paper 54/2006, Helmut Schmidt University, Hamburg.
    40. Ageli, Mohammed Moosa, 2013. "Wagner’s Law in Saudi Arabia 1970 - 2012: An Econometric Analysis," MPRA Paper 46594, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    41. Michas, Nicholas A, 1975. "Wagner's Law of Public Expenditures: What Is the Appropriate Measurement for a Valid Test?," Public Finance = Finances publiques, , vol. 30(1), pages 77-85.
    42. Dimitrios Paparas & Christian Richter & Dimitrios Paparas & Anthoula Avloniti, 2012. "The validity of Wagner’s Law in United Kingdom for the period 1850-2010," EcoMod2012 4131, EcoMod.
    43. Dollery, Brian & Singh, Sukhvinder, 1998. "A Note on the Empirical Analysis of Wagner's Law," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 245-257, September.
    44. Halicioglu Ferda, 2003. "Testing Wagner's Law for Turkey, 1960-2000," Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, De Gruyter, vol. 1(2), pages 31-42, August.
    45. Jan Kuckuck, 2012. "Testing Wagner's Law at Different Stages of Economic Development - A Historical Analysis of Five Western European Countries," IEER Working Papers 91, Institute of Empirical Economic Research, Osnabrueck University.
    46. Stephen Kirchner, 2012. "Federal legislative activism in Australia: a new approach to testing Wagner’s law," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 153(3), pages 375-392, December.
    47. Ganti, Subrahmanyam & Kolluri, Bharat R, 1979. "Wagner's Law of Public Expenditures: Some Efficient Results for the United States," Public Finance = Finances publiques, , vol. 34(2), pages 225-233.
    48. repec:kap:iaecre:v:17:y:2011:i:2:p:134-156 is not listed on IDEAS
    49. Chor Foon Tang, 2008. "Wagner’s Law versus Keynesian Hypothesis: New Evidence from Recursive Regression-Based Causality Approaches," The IUP Journal of Public Finance, IUP Publications, vol. 0(4), pages 29-38, November.
    50. Pluta, Joseph E, 1981. "Real Public Sector Growth and Decline in Developing Countries," Public Finance = Finances publiques, , vol. 36(3), pages 439-454.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Irandoust, Manuchehr, 2019. "Wagner on government spending and national income: A new look at an old relationship," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 41(4), pages 636-646.
    2. Fedotenkov, Igor & Idrisov, Georgy, 2021. "A supply-demand model of public sector size," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 45(2).
    3. Fedotenkov, Igor & Idrisov, Georgy, 2019. "A supply-demand model of the size of public sector and Wagner's law," MPRA Paper 94973, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Mustapha JOBARTEH, 2020. "Testing Wagner’s Law for sub-Saharan Africa: A panel cointegration and causality approach," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(1(622), S), pages 125-136, Spring.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Omoshoro-Jones, Oyeyinka Sunday, 2016. "A Cointegration and Causality Test on Government Expenditure –Economic Growth Nexus: Empirical Evidence from a South African Province," MPRA Paper 102085, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 17 Oct 2017.
    2. Ali, Wajid & Munir, Kashif, 2016. "Testing Wagner versus Keynesian Hypothesis for Pakistan: The Role of Aggregate and Disaggregate Expenditure," MPRA Paper 74570, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Philip Arestis & Hüseyin Şen & Ayşe Kaya, 2021. "On the linkage between government expenditure and output: empirics of the Keynesian view versus Wagner’s law," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 54(2), pages 265-303, May.
    4. Magazzino, Cosimo, 2012. "Wagner versus Keynes: Public spending and national income in Italy," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 890-905.
    5. Burak Sencer Atasoy & Timur Han Gür, 2016. "Does the Wagner’s Hypothesis Hold for China? Evidence from Static and Dynamic Analyses," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 63(1), pages 45-60, March.
    6. Dimitrios Paparas & Christian Richter & Ioannis Kostakis, 2019. "The validity of Wagner’s Law in the United Kingdom during the Last Two Centuries," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 16(2), pages 269-291, April.
    7. Magazzino, Cosimo, 2010. "Wagner's law and augmented Wagner's law in EU-27. A time-series analysis on stationarity, cointegration and causality," MPRA Paper 26668, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. László Kónya & Bekzod Abdullaev, 2018. "An attempt to restore Wagner’s law of increasing state activity," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 55(4), pages 1569-1583, December.
    9. Irandoust, Manuchehr, 2019. "Wagner on government spending and national income: A new look at an old relationship," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 41(4), pages 636-646.
    10. Nicholas Odhiambo, 2015. "Government Expenditure and Economic Growth in South Africa: an Empirical Investigation," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 43(3), pages 393-406, September.
    11. Thabane, Kanono & Lebina, Sello, 2016. "Economic Growth and Government Spending Nexus: Empirical Evidence from Lesotho," African Journal of Economic Review, African Journal of Economic Review, vol. 4(1), January.
    12. Sheilla Nyasha & Nicholas M. Odhiambo, 2019. "Government Size and Economic Growth: A Review of International Literature," SAGE Open, , vol. 9(3), pages 21582440198, September.
    13. Ebaid Ali & Bahari Zakaria, 2019. "The Nexus between Government Expenditure and Economic Growth: Evidence of the Wagner’s Law in Kuwait," Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, De Gruyter, vol. 15(1), pages 1-9, April.
    14. Ampah Isaac Kwesi & Kotosz Balázs, 2016. "Wagner versus Keynes: the causal nexus between Government Expenditures and Economic Growth: An Empirical study of Burkina Faso," Journal of Heterodox Economics, Sciendo, vol. 3(2), pages 74-101, December.
    15. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Nielsen, Ingrid & Smyth, Russell, 2008. "Panel data, cointegration, causality and Wagner's law: Empirical evidence from Chinese provinces," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 297-307, June.
    16. Christian Richter & Dimitrios Paparas, 2012. "The validity of Wagner’s Law in Greece during the last 2 centuries," Working Papers 2012.2, International Network for Economic Research - INFER.
    17. Magazzino, Cosimo, 2010. "Wagner's law and Italian disaggregated public spending: some empirical evidences," MPRA Paper 26662, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Haider Hassan Itoo & Mohammad Asif & Nazim Ali & Md Abusaad, 2024. "Wagner’s law revisited: investigating the asymmetric relationship between national income and public expenditure in India," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 4(10), pages 1-20, October.
    19. Asuman Oktayer & Nagihan Oktayer, 2013. "Testing Wagner's Law for Turkey: Evidence from a Trivariate Causality Analysis," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2013(2), pages 284-301.
    20. Kashif MUNIR & Wajid ALI, 2019. "Wagner versus Keynesian Hypothesis: Role of aggregate and disaggregate expenditure in Pakistan," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(4(621), W), pages 181-200, Winter.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eso:journl:v:47:y:2016:i:1:p:69-103. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Aedin Doris (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.esr.ie .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.