IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/eei/rpaper/eeri_rp_2007_05.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

A Multivariate Causality Analysis of Export and Growth for Turkey

Author

Listed:
  • Ferda Halicioglu

Abstract

This study seeks to validity of the export-led growth hypothesis using quarterly data from 1980 to 2005. The bounds testing approach to cointegration is employed to test the causal relationship between industrial production, exports and terms of trade. An augmented form of Granger causality analysis is implemented to identify the direction of relationship among the variables both in the short-run and the long-run. The empirical findings suggest uni-directional causation from exports to industrial production.

Suggested Citation

  • Ferda Halicioglu, 2007. "A Multivariate Causality Analysis of Export and Growth for Turkey," EERI Research Paper Series EERI_RP_2007_05, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
    • Handle: RePEc:eei:rpaper:eeri_rp_2007_05
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.eeri.eu/documents/wp/EERI_RP_2007_05.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Judith Giles & Cara Williams, 2001. "Export-led growth: a survey of the empirical literature and some non-causality results. Part 2," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(4), pages 445-470.
    2. Stilianos Fountas, 2000. "Some evidence on the export-led growth hypothesis for Ireland," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(4), pages 211-214.
    3. Boriss Siliverstovs & Dierk Herzer, 2006. "Export-led growth hypothesis: evidence for Chile," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(5), pages 319-324.
    4. Titus Awokuse, 2005. "Exports, economic growth and causality in Korea," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(11), pages 693-696.
    5. Peter C. B. Phillips & Bruce E. Hansen, 1990. "Statistical Inference in Instrumental Variables Regression with I(1) Processes," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 57(1), pages 99-125.
    6. Sübidey Togan, 2004. "Turkey: Toward EU Accession," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(7), pages 1013-1045, July.
    7. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    8. Jim Love & Ramesh Chandra, 2005. "Testing export-led growth in South Asia," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 32(2), pages 132-145, May.
    9. K. A. Al Mamun & H. K. Nath, 2005. "Export-led growth in Bangladesh: a time series analysis," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(6), pages 361-364.
    10. Love, Jim & Chandra, Ramesh, 2005. "Testing export-led growth in Bangladesh in a multivarate VAR framework," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(6), pages 1155-1168, January.
    11. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    12. Jai Mah, 2005. "Export expansion, economic growth and causality in China," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(2), pages 105-107.
    13. A. F. Darrat & M. K. Hsu & M. Zhong, 2000. "Testing export exogeneity in Taiwan: further evidence," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(9), pages 563-567.
    14. M. Bahmani-Oskooee & Gour Goswami, 2003. "A disaggregated approach to test the J-Curve phenomenon: Japan versus her major trading partners," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 27(1), pages 102-113, March.
    15. Judith Giles & Cara Williams, 2001. "Export-led growth: a survey of the empirical literature and some non-causality results. Part 1," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(3), pages 261-337.
    16. Jacint Balaguer & Manuel Cantavella-Jorda, 2001. "Examining the export-led growth hypothesis for Spain in the last century," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(10), pages 681-685.
    17. Paresh Kumar Narayan & Seema Narayan & Biman Chand Prasad & Arti Prasad, 2007. "Export‐led growth hypothesis: evidence from Papua New Guinea and Fiji," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 34(4), pages 341-351, September.
    18. Bassam Abual-Foul, 2004. "Testing the export-led growth hypothesis: evidence from Jordan," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(6), pages 393-396.
    19. Titus Awokuse, 2006. "Export-led growth and the Japanese economy: evidence from VAR and directed acyclic graphs," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(5), pages 593-602.
    20. Abdulnasser Hatemi-J & Manuchehr Irandoust, 2000. "Export performance and economic growth causality: An empirical analysis," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 28(4), pages 412-426, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Halicioglu, Ferda, 2011. "A dynamic econometric study of income, energy and exports in Turkey," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 3348-3354.
    2. Tafirenyika Sunde & Cyril Ayetuoma Ogbokor, 2018. "The Effects of Exports in SACU Countries: An Empirical Analysis Using Panel Data," Acta Universitatis Danubius. OEconomica, Danubius University of Galati, issue 14(4), pages 142-155, AUGUST.
    3. Ousama Ben-Salha & Abir Abid & Ghassen El Montasser, 2023. "Linear and Nonlinear Causal Linkages Between Exports and Growth in Next Eleven Economies," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 14(2), pages 1194-1226, June.
    4. Yahya Can DURA & Mustafa Kemal BESER & Hakan ACAROGLU, 2017. "Türkiye’nin Ihracata Dayali Buyumesinin Ekonometrik Analizi," Ege Academic Review, Ege University Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, vol. 17(2), pages 295-310.
    5. M. Adetunji Babatunde, 2011. "A bound testing analysis of Wagner's law in Nigeria: 1970-2006," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(21), pages 2843-2850.
    6. Ranjan Kumar Nayak, 2022. "Performance of Odisha State Co-operative Bank: An ARDL Approach," Arthaniti: Journal of Economic Theory and Practice, , vol. 21(1), pages 7-26, June.
    7. masron, Tajul arrifin & Mohd naseem niaz, Ahmad, 2008. "Export, Economic Integration and Exchange Rate Volatility in Turkey and Malaysia," MPRA Paper 41519, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Akbay O. S., 2011. "Trade-Growth Nexus: Turkish Case," EuroEconomica, Danubius University of Galati, issue 28, pages 108-114, May.
    9. Ferda HALICIOGLU, 2012. "The Demand for Calories in Turkey," Iktisat Isletme ve Finans, Bilgesel Yayincilik, vol. 27(316), pages 93-108.
    10. Hasan Comert & Selman Colak, 2014. "The Impacts of the Global Crisis on the Turkish Economy and Policy Responses," ERC Working Papers 1417, ERC - Economic Research Center, Middle East Technical University, revised Dec 2014.
    11. Ferda Halıcıoğlu & Kasım Eren, 2017. "Testing Twin Deficits and Saving-Investment Nexus in Turkey," Yildiz Social Science Review, Yildiz Technical University, vol. 3(1), pages 35-46.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Muhammad Shahbaz & Pervaz Azim & Khalil Ahmad, 2011. "Exports-Led Growth Hypothesis in Pakistan: Further Evidence," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 1(3), pages 182-197.
    2. Qazi Muhammad Adnan Hye & Houda Ben Haj Boubaker, 2011. "Exports, Imports and Economic Growth: An Empirical Analysis of Tunisia," The IUP Journal of Monetary Economics, IUP Publications, vol. 0(1), pages 6-21, February.
    3. Isabel Cortes-Jimenez & Manuela Pulina, 2006. "Tourism and Growth: Evidence for Spain and Italy," ERSA conference papers ersa06p128, European Regional Science Association.
    4. Fugarolas, Guadalupe & Mañalich, Isis & Matesanz, David, 2007. "Are Exports Causing Growth? Evidence On International Trade Expansion In Cuba, 1960-2004," MPRA Paper 6323, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Adeel Saleem & Maqbool H. Sial & Ahmed Raza Cheema, 2023. "Does an asymmetric nexus exist between exports and economic growth in Pakistan? Recent evidence from a nonlinear ARDL approach," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 56(1), pages 297-326, February.
    6. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Mohammad, Mafizur Rahman, 2014. "The Dynamics of Exports, Financial Development and Economic Growth in Pakistan: New Extensions from Cointegration and Causality Analysis," MPRA Paper 53225, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 19 Jan 2014.
    7. Cortes-Jimenez, Isabel & Pulina, Manuela, 2006. "A further step into the ELGH and TLGH for Spain and Italy," Natural Resources Management Working Papers 12137, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    8. Byoungki Kim & Phouphet Kyophilavong & Kenji Nozaki & Teerawat Charoenrat, 2022. "Does the Export-led Growth Hypothesis Hold for Myanmar?," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 23(1), pages 48-60, February.
    9. Halicioglu, Ferda, 2011. "A dynamic econometric study of income, energy and exports in Turkey," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 3348-3354.
    10. Kalaitzi, Athanasia Stylianou & Chamberlain, Trevor William, 2021. "The validity of the export-led growth hypothesis: some evidence from the GCC," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 106586, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    11. Ritu Rani & Naresh Kumar, 2018. "Is There an Export- or Import-led Growth in BRICS Countries? An Empirical Investigation," Jindal Journal of Business Research, , vol. 7(1), pages 13-23, June.
    12. Oladapo FAPETU & Segun Daniel OWOEYE, 2017. "Testing the validity of the export-led growth hypothesis in Nigeria: Evidence from non-oil and oil exports," Computational Methods in Social Sciences (CMSS), "Nicolae Titulescu" University of Bucharest, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 5(2), pages 41-48, December.
    13. Shiok Ye Lim & Ricky Chee-Jiun Chia & Chong Mun Ho, 2010. "Long-run Validity of Export-Led Growth: An Empirical Reinvestigation from Linear and Nonlinear Cointegration Test," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 30(2), pages 1182-1190.
    14. Fakhri J. Hasanov & Muhammad Javid & Frederick L. Joutz, 2022. "Saudi Non-Oil Exports before and after COVID-19: Historical Impacts of Determinants and Scenario Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(4), pages 1-38, February.
    15. Mohammad Mafizur Rahman & Muhammad Shahbaz, 2013. "Do Imports and Foreign Capital Inflows Lead Economic Growth? Cointegration and Causality Analysis in Pakistan," South Asia Economic Journal, Institute of Policy Studies of Sri Lanka, vol. 14(1), pages 59-81, March.
    16. Ferda Halicioglu, 2010. "An Econometric Analysis of the Aggregate Outbound Tourism Demand of Turkey," Tourism Economics, , vol. 16(1), pages 83-97, March.
    17. Audrey Liwan & Evan Lau, 2007. "Managing Growth: The Role of Export, Inflation and Investment in Three ASEAN Neighboring Countries," The IUP Journal of Managerial Economics, IUP Publications, vol. 0(4), pages 7-16, November.
    18. Angeliki N. Menegaki, 2019. "The ARDL Method in the Energy-Growth Nexus Field; Best Implementation Strategies," Economies, MDPI, vol. 7(4), pages 1-16, October.
    19. Muhammad Shahbaz & Mohammad Mafizur Rahman, 2012. "The Dynamic of Financial Development, Imports, Foreign Direct Investment and Economic Growth: Cointegration and Causality Analysis in Pakistan," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 13(2), pages 201-219, June.
    20. Halicioglu, Ferda, 2009. "An econometric study of CO2 emissions, energy consumption, income and foreign trade in Turkey," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 1156-1164, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Export-led growth; causality; cointegration; Turkey;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eei:rpaper:eeri_rp_2007_05. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Julia van Hove (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/eeriibe.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.