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A cointegration analysis of annual tourism demand by Malaysia for Australia

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  • Lim, Christine
  • McAleer, Michael

Abstract

This paper investigates the long-run relationship between the demand for international travel to Australia from Malaysia and a group of leading macroeconomic variables, including Malaysian income, tourism prices in Australia, transportation costs between Malaysia and Australia, and the exchange rate between the two countries. The Augmented Dickey–Fuller (ADF) procedure is used to test for unit roots, while Johansen’s maximum likelihood procedure is used to test for cointegration and to estimate the number of cointegrating vectors. A single cointegrating relationship is found among the set of non-stationary macroeconomic variables, and is compared with the ordinary least squares estimates. It is found that lagged changes in real airfares, and the extent to which the system is out of equilibrium, are statistically significant. Surprisingly, real income does not seem to have a significant effect on tourism demand from Malaysia to Australia when the cointegration technique is used. However, real income (as measured by the logarithm of real private consumption expenditures per capita) is significant when ordinary least squares estimation is used.

Suggested Citation

  • Lim, Christine & McAleer, Michael, 2002. "A cointegration analysis of annual tourism demand by Malaysia for Australia," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 197-205.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:matcom:v:59:y:2002:i:1:p:197-205
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. repec:cfe:wpcefa:2016_04 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Chia-Lin Chang & Hui-Kuang Hsu & Michael McAleer, 2017. "A Tourism Financial Conditions Index for Tourism Finance," Challenges, MDPI, vol. 8(2), pages 1-17, September.
    3. Guizzardi, Andrea & Mazzocchi, Mario, 2010. "Tourism demand for Italy and the business cycle," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 367-377.
    4. Gabriela Mordecki & Ana Leiva & Nathalie Desplas, 2016. "Tourism demand for Mexico and Uruguay," Documentos de Trabajo (working papers) 16-09, Instituto de Economía - IECON.
    5. Paresh Kumar Narayan, 2011. "Are shocks to tourism transitory at business cycle horizons?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(16), pages 2071-2077.
    6. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Chien, Mei-Se, 2008. "Structural breaks, tourism development, and economic growth: Evidence from Taiwan," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 77(4), pages 358-368.
    7. Ambachew Mekonnen Sisay, 2011. "Determinants of private investment in Ethiopia: a time series study," Ethiopian Journal of Economics, Ethiopian Economics Association, vol. 19(1), September.
    8. Nanthakumar Loganathan & Ang Shy Han & Mori Kogid, 2013. "Demand for Indonesia, Singapore and Thailand Tourist to Malaysia:Seasonal Unit Root and Multivariate Analysis," International Journal of Economics and Empirical Research (IJEER), The Economics and Social Development Organization (TESDO), vol. 1(2), pages 15-23, Februray.
    9. KETENCI, Natalya, 2010. "Cointegration Analysis Of Tourism Demand For Turkey," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 10(1).
    10. Andraz, Jorge M. & Rodrigues, Paulo M.M., 2016. "Monitoring tourism flows and destination management: Empirical evidence for Portugal," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 1-7.
    11. Ronald Kumar & Nanthakumar Loganathan & Arvind Patel & Radika Kumar, 2015. "Nexus between tourism earnings and economic growth: a study of Malaysia," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 49(3), pages 1101-1120, May.
    12. Muhammad Shafiullah & Luke Emeka Okafor & Usman Khalid, 2019. "Determinants of international tourism demand: Evidence from Australian states and territories," Tourism Economics, , vol. 25(2), pages 274-296, March.
    13. Ambachew, Mekonnen Sisay, 2011. "Determinants of Private Investment in Ethiopia: a Time Series Study," Ethiopian Journal of Economics, Ethiopian Economics Association, vol. 19(1), pages 180-180, September.
    14. Seetaram, Neelu, 2012. "Immigration and international inbound tourism: Empirical evidence from Australia," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 1535-1543.

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