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Peacock and Wiseman's displacement hypothesis: some new long-run evidence for the UK

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  • O. Henry
  • N. Olekalns

Abstract

This article presents new evidence on the ability of Peacock and Wiseman's displacement hypothesis to explain temporal increases in the ratio of government expenditure to Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the UK. Using univariate modelling techniques that are robust to structural changes in the underlying data generating process and a data set extending back to 1836, we find four instances where the ratio of expenditure to GDP displays an evidence of a structural break. Two of these breaks coincide with major social upheavals as predicted by the displacement hypothesis.

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  • O. Henry & N. Olekalns, 2010. "Peacock and Wiseman's displacement hypothesis: some new long-run evidence for the UK," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(11), pages 1455-1460.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:42:y:2010:i:11:p:1455-1460
    DOI: 10.1080/00036841003668873
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    Cited by:

    1. ANDREI, Dalina & Andrei, Liviu Catalin, 2020. "The generic economic entity types. A critical analysis of basics of the Keynesian Macro-Model," MPRA Paper 109886, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 10 May 2020.
    2. Manuel Jaén-García, 2021. "Displacement Effect and Ratchet Effect: Testing of Two Alternative Hypotheses," SAGE Open, , vol. 11(1), pages 21582440211, March.
    3. Nicholas Crafts, 2016. "Reducing High Public Debt Ratios: Lessons from UK Experience," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 37, pages 201-223, June.

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