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Predicting presidential election results

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  • David Walker

Abstract

The 2004 US presidential election proved again how difficult it is to predict vote shares on the basis of polls. Midday media exit polls suggested that Senator Kerry would become the 44th President. Political scientists and econometricians, led by Ray Fair, have promulgated theoretical arguments and empirical results to predict US presidential elections, using macro-economic data and political factors. Respecifying Fair's war variable to include Korea and Vietnam and removing serial correlation improves his election forecasting without public opinion poll variables. This generalized Fair model predicts President Bush's two-party vote share would be 52.3 percent, well below predictions by Fair and prestigious political scientists.

Suggested Citation

  • David Walker, 2006. "Predicting presidential election results," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(5), pages 483-490.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:38:y:2006:i:5:p:483-490
    DOI: 10.1080/00036840500391385
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Douglas Hibbs, 2000. "Bread and Peace Voting in U.S. Presidential Elections," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 104(1), pages 149-180, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Gerald T. Fox, 2009. "Partisan Divide on War and the Economy," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 53(6), pages 905-933, December.
    2. Sinha, Pankaj & Kumar, Amit & Biswas, Sumana & Gupta, Chirag, 2024. "Forecasting US Presidential Election 2024 using multiple machine learning algorithms," MPRA Paper 122490, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 22 Oct 2024.

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