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Prequential analysis of stock market returns

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  • David Bessler
  • Robert Ruffley

Abstract

The Brier score and a covariance partition due to Yates are considered to study the probabilistic forecasts of a vector autoregression on stock market returns. Probabilistic forecasts from a model and data developed by Campbell (1991) are studied with ordinary least squares. Calibration measures and the Brier score and its partition are used for model assessment. The partitions indicate that the ordinary least squares version of Campbell's model does not forecast stock market returns particularly well. While the model offers honest probabilistic forecasts (they are well-calibrated), the model shows little ability to sort events that occur into different groups from events that do not occur. The Yates-partition demonstrates this shortcoming. Calibration metrics do not.

Suggested Citation

  • David Bessler & Robert Ruffley, 2004. "Prequential analysis of stock market returns," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(5), pages 399-412.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:36:y:2004:i:5:p:399-412
    DOI: 10.1080/00036840410001682115
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Kyle E. Binder & Mohsen Pourahmadi & James W. Mjelde, 2020. "The role of temporal dependence in factor selection and forecasting oil prices," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(3), pages 1185-1223, March.
    3. Duangnate, Kannika & Mjelde, James W., 2017. "Comparison of data-rich and small-scale data time series models generating probabilistic forecasts: An application to U.S. natural gas gross withdrawals," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 411-423.
    4. Yi-Mien Lin & Yun-Sheng Hsu & Shieh-Liang Chen, 2009. "Cash-flow news, market liquidity and liquidity risk," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(9), pages 1137-1156.
    5. Kannika Duangnate & James W. Mjelde, 2020. "Prequential forecasting in the presence of structure breaks in natural gas spot markets," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 59(5), pages 2363-2384, November.
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    9. Huong Dang, 2014. "A Competing Risks Dynamic Hazard Approach to Investigate the Insolvency Outcomes of Property-Casualty Insurers," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice, Palgrave Macmillan;The Geneva Association, vol. 39(1), pages 42-76, January.

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