IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/finana/v63y2019icp58-68.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Are cash-flow betas really bad? Evidence from the Greater Chinese stock markets

Author

Listed:
  • Wu, Ming
  • Ohk, Kiyool
  • Ko, Kwangsoo

Abstract

This study evaluates the relative importance of cash-flow news and discount-rate news using the log-linear model for the Greater Chinese stock markets (i.e., China, Hong Kong, and Taiwan). Although they belong to the same cultural region, these countries have different capital market regulations and practices. In this context, we find that only the discount-rate beta is priced in Hong Kong; thus, the discount-rate beta is labeled as a ‘bad beta’ in Hong Kong. However, the cash-flow beta is ‘bad’ in China and both betas are ‘bad’ in Taiwan. These findings are consistent with each market's ownership structure, dividend policy, and tax system. However, as in the United States, risk premiums are significantly higher in down markets than in up markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Wu, Ming & Ohk, Kiyool & Ko, Kwangsoo, 2019. "Are cash-flow betas really bad? Evidence from the Greater Chinese stock markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 58-68.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finana:v:63:y:2019:i:c:p:58-68
    DOI: 10.1016/j.irfa.2019.03.004
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1057521918307063
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.irfa.2019.03.004?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Deng, Lu & Li, Sifei & Liao, Mingqing, 2017. "Dividends and earnings quality: Evidence from China," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 255-268.
    2. Li, Ke & Lu, Lei & Mittoo, Usha R. & Zhang, Zhou, 2015. "Board independence, ownership concentration and corporate performance—Chinese evidence," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 162-175.
    3. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1992. "The Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(2), pages 427-465, June.
    4. Tuomo Vuolteenaho, 2002. "What Drives Firm‐Level Stock Returns?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(1), pages 233-264, February.
    5. Campbell, John Y & Ammer, John, 1993. "What Moves the Stock and Bond Markets? A Variance Decomposition for Long-Term Asset Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(1), pages 3-37, March.
    6. Miller, Merton H & Rock, Kevin, 1985. "Dividend Policy under Asymmetric Information," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(4), pages 1031-1051, September.
    7. Pettengill, Glenn N. & Sundaram, Sridhar & Mathur, Ike, 1995. "The Conditional Relation between Beta and Returns," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 30(1), pages 101-116, March.
    8. Cenedese, Gino & Mallucci, Enrico, 2016. "What moves international stock and bond markets?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 94-113.
    9. Kalok Chan & Albert J. Menkveld & Zhishu Yang, 2008. "Information Asymmetry and Asset Prices: Evidence from the China Foreign Share Discount," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(1), pages 159-196, February.
    10. Reinganum, Marc R., 1981. "A New Empirical Perspective on the CAPM," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(4), pages 439-462, November.
    11. Cheung, Yan-Leung & Stouraitis, Aris & Wong, Anita W.S., 2005. "Ownership concentration and executive compensation in closely held firms: Evidence from Hong Kong," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 511-532, September.
    12. Domowitz, Ian & Glen, Jack & Madhavan, Ananth, 1997. "Market Segmentation and Stock Prices: Evidence from an Emerging Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(3), pages 1059-1085, July.
    13. repec:bla:jfinan:v:43:y:1988:i:3:p:661-76 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Campbell, J.Y. & Shiller, R.J., 1988. "Stock Prices, Earnings And Expected Dividends," Papers 334, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
    15. Hung, Pi-Hsia, 2016. "Investor sentiment, order submission, and investment performance on the Taiwan Stock Exchange," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 124-140.
    16. Liao, Li & Liu, Bibo & Wang, Hao, 2014. "China׳s secondary privatization: Perspectives from the Split-Share Structure Reform," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(3), pages 500-518.
    17. Michail Koubouros & Dimitrios Malliaropulos & Ekaterini Panopoulou, 2010. "Long-run cash flow and discount-rate risks in the cross-section of US returns," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(3), pages 227-244.
    18. Botshekan, Mahmoud & Kraeussl, Roman & Lucas, Andre, 2012. "Cash Flow and Discount Rate Risk in Up and Down Markets: What Is Actually Priced?," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 47(6), pages 1279-1301, December.
    19. Daniel Kahneman & Amos Tversky, 2013. "Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision Under Risk," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Leonard C MacLean & William T Ziemba (ed.), HANDBOOK OF THE FUNDAMENTALS OF FINANCIAL DECISION MAKING Part I, chapter 6, pages 99-127, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    20. Stulz, René M, 1995. "Foreign Equity Investment Restrictions, Capital Flight, and Shareholder Wealth Maximization," CEPR Discussion Papers 1208, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    21. Hoang, Edward C. & Hoxha, Indrit, 2016. "Corporate payout smoothing: A variance decomposition approach," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 1-13.
    22. Nguyen, Tuan & Locke, Stuart & Reddy, Krishna, 2015. "Ownership concentration and corporate performance from a dynamic perspective: Does national governance quality matter?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 148-161.
    23. Zhenhua Su & Jun Ma & Mark E. Wohar, 2014. "Sources of the stock price fluctuations in Chinese equity market," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(7-9), pages 829-846, September.
    24. Campbell, John Y, 1991. "A Variance Decomposition for Stock Returns," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 101(405), pages 157-179, March.
    25. Firth, Michael & Lin, Chen & Zou, Hong, 2010. "Friend or Foe? The Role of State and Mutual Fund Ownership in the Split Share Structure Reform in China," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 45(3), pages 685-706, June.
    26. Ko, Hin-cheung Annie & Tong, Yixing (Jamie) & Zhang, Feida (Frank) & Zheng, Guojian, 2016. "Corporate governance, product market competition and managerial incentives: Evidence from four Pacific Basin countries," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 40(PB), pages 491-502.
    27. John Campbell & Jianping Mei, 1993. "Where do Betas Come From? Asset Price Dynamics and the Sources of Systematic Risk," NBER Working Papers 4329, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    28. Feng, Xunan & Hu, Na & Johansson, Anders C., 2016. "Ownership, analyst coverage, and stock synchronicity in China," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 79-96.
    29. Li, Changhong & Shi, Yulin & Wu, Cong & Wu, Zhenyu & Zheng, Li, 2016. "Policies of promoting entrepreneurship and Angel Investment: Evidence from China," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 154-167.
    30. Lie, Erik & Lie, Heidi J., 1999. "The Role of Personal Taxes in Corporate Decisions: An Empirical Analysis of Share Repurchases and Dividends," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 34(4), pages 533-552, December.
    31. Rafael La Porta & Florencio Lopez-de-Silanes & Andrei Shleifer & Robert W. Vishny, 1998. "Law and Finance," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 106(6), pages 1113-1155, December.
    32. John Y. Campbell & Christopher Polk & Tuomo Vuolteenaho, 2010. "Growth or Glamour? Fundamentals and Systematic Risk in Stock Returns," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(1), pages 305-344, January.
    33. Rafael La Porta & Florencio Lopez‐De‐Silanes & Andrei Shleifer, 1999. "Corporate Ownership Around the World," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(2), pages 471-517, April.
    34. Diallo, Boubacar, 2017. "Corporate governance, bank concentration and economic growth," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 28-37.
    35. Bodnaruk, Andriy & Massa, Massimo & Yadav, Vijay, 2017. "Family ownership, country governance, and foreign portfolio investment," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 96-115.
    36. Bilinski, Pawel & Lyssimachou, Danielle, 2018. "Dividend guidance to manage analyst dividend expectations," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 53-68.
    37. John Y. Campbell, Robert J. Shiller, 1988. "The Dividend-Price Ratio and Expectations of Future Dividends and Discount Factors," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(3), pages 195-228.
    38. Brawn, Derek A. & Šević, Aleksandar, 2018. "“Firm size matters: Industry sector, firm age and volatility do too in determining which publicly-listed US firms pay a dividend”," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 132-152.
    39. Peter Hecht & Tuomo Vuolteenaho, 2006. "Explaining Returns with Cash-Flow Proxies," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 19(1), pages 159-194.
    40. Calomiris, Charles W. & Fisman, Raymond & Wang, Yongxiang, 2010. "Profiting from government stakes in a command economy: Evidence from Chinese asset sales," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(3), pages 399-412, June.
    41. Engsted, Tom & Pedersen, Thomas Q. & Tanggaard, Carsten, 2012. "Pitfalls in VAR based return decompositions: A clarification," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 1255-1265.
    42. Khan, Mozaffar, 2008. "Are accruals mispriced Evidence from tests of an Intertemporal Capital Asset Pricing Model," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 55-77, March.
    43. John Y. Campbell & Tuomo Vuolteenaho, 2004. "Bad Beta, Good Beta," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(5), pages 1249-1275, December.
    44. Ma, Liangbo & Ma, Shiguang & Tian, Gary, 2016. "Family control, accounting misstatements, and market reactions to restatements: Evidence from China," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 1-27.
    45. Zhao, Yu Fang & Xia, Xin Ping & Tang, Xiang Xi & Cao, Wei & Liu, Xiao Yuan & Fan, Ying Han, 2015. "Private placements, cash dividends and interests transfer: Empirical evidence from Chinese listed firms," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 107-118.
    46. Lo, Huai-Chun & Ting, Irene Wei Kiong & Kweh, Qian Long & Yang, Ming Jing, 2016. "Nonlinear association between ownership concentration and leverage: The role of family control," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 113-123.
    47. Wang, Kun Tracy & Shailer, Greg, 2017. "Family ownership and financial performance relations in emerging markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 82-98.
    48. Fama, Eugene F & MacBeth, James D, 1973. "Risk, Return, and Equilibrium: Empirical Tests," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 607-636, May-June.
    49. Stulz, Rene M & Wasserfallen, Walter, 1995. "Foreign Equity Investment Restrictions, Capital Flight, and Shareholder Wealth Maximization: Theory and Evidence," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 8(4), pages 1019-1057.
    50. Chi, Ching Wen & Hung, Ken & Cheng, Hui Wen & Tien Lieu, Pang, 2015. "Family firms and earnings management in Taiwan: Influence of corporate governance," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 88-98.
    51. Khimich, Natalya, 2017. "A comparison of alternative cash flow and discount rate news proxies," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 31-52.
    52. Lakonishok, Josef & Shapiro, Alan C., 1986. "Systematic risk, total risk and size as determinants of stock market returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 115-132, March.
    53. Long Chen & Xinlei Zhao, 2009. "Return Decomposition," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(12), pages 5213-5249, December.
    54. Jeffrey L. Callen & Dan Segal, 2004. "Do Accruals Drive Firm‐Level Stock Returns? A Variance Decomposition Analysis," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(3), pages 527-560, June.
    55. Dong, Yan & Liu, Zhentao & Shen, Zhe & Sun, Qian, 2016. "Does State Ownership Really Matter in Determining Access to Bank Loans? Evidence from China's Partial Privatization," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 40(PA), pages 73-85.
    56. Andres, Christian & Betzer, André & Goergen, Marc & Renneboog, Luc, 2009. "Dividend policy of German firms: A panel data analysis of partial adjustment models," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 175-187, March.
    57. John, Kose & Williams, Joseph, 1985. "Dividends, Dilution, and Taxes: A Signalling Equilibrium," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(4), pages 1053-1070, September.
    58. Maio, Paulo & Philip, Dennis, 2015. "Macro variables and the components of stock returns," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 287-308.
    59. repec:wyi:journl:002183 is not listed on IDEAS
    60. Shailer, Greg & Wang, Kun, 2015. "Government ownership and the cost of debt for Chinese listed corporations," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 1-17.
    61. Chemmanur, Thomas J. & He, Jie & Hu, Gang & Liu, Helen, 2010. "Is dividend smoothing universal?: New insights from a comparative study of dividend policies in Hong Kong and the U.S," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 413-430, September.
    62. Franklin Allen, 2001. "Do Financial Institutions Matter?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(4), pages 1165-1175, August.
    63. Campbell, John Y & Mei, Jianping, 1993. "Where Do Betas Come From? Asset Price Dynamics and the," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(3), pages 567-592.
    64. Qian, Meifen & Sun, Ping-Wen & Yu, Bin, 2018. "Top managerial power and stock price efficiency: Evidence from China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 20-38.
    65. Long Chen & Zhi Da & Xinlei Zhao, 2013. "What Drives Stock Price Movements?," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 26(4), pages 841-876.
    66. Kent Wang & Li Miao & Jiawei Li, 2013. "Two-Factor Decomposition Analysis for Correlation between Mainland C hina and H ong K ong Stock Markets," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 13(1), pages 93-110, March.
    67. Vickery, James, 2008. "How and why do small firms manage interest rate risk," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(2), pages 446-470, February.
    68. Jeffrey L. Callen & Ole‐Kristian Hope & Dan Segal, 2005. "Domestic and Foreign Earnings, Stock Return Variability, and the Impact of Investor Sophistication," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(3), pages 377-412, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Wu, Ming & Ohk, Kiyool & Ko, Kwangsoo, 2021. "Does cash-flow news play a better role than discount-rate news? Evidence from global regional stock markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    2. Nie, Jing & Yin, Libo, 2022. "Do dividends signal safety? Evidence from China," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Wu, Ming & Ohk, Kiyool & Ko, Kwangsoo, 2021. "Does cash-flow news play a better role than discount-rate news? Evidence from global regional stock markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    2. Maio, Paulo & Philip, Dennis, 2015. "Macro variables and the components of stock returns," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 287-308.
    3. Cenesizoglu, Tolga, 2011. "Size, book-to-market ratio and macroeconomic news," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 248-270, March.
    4. Khimich, Natalya, 2017. "A comparison of alternative cash flow and discount rate news proxies," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 31-52.
    5. Botshekan, Mahmoud & Kraeussl, Roman & Lucas, Andre, 2012. "Cash Flow and Discount Rate Risk in Up and Down Markets: What Is Actually Priced?," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 47(6), pages 1279-1301, December.
    6. Paulo Maio, 2014. "Another Look at the Stock Return Response to Monetary Policy Actions," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 18(1), pages 321-371.
    7. Mohsen Jafarian & Fauzias Mat Nor & Izani Ibrahim, 2018. "The Relative Importance of Cash Flow News and Discount Rate News at Driving Stock Price Change," Capital Markets Review, Malaysian Finance Association, vol. 26(1), pages 56-72.
    8. Khan, Mozaffar, 2008. "Are accruals mispriced Evidence from tests of an Intertemporal Capital Asset Pricing Model," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 55-77, March.
    9. Cenesizoglu, Tolga, 2022. "Return decomposition over the business cycle," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    10. John Y. Campbell & Christopher Polk & Tuomo Vuolteenaho, 2010. "Growth or Glamour? Fundamentals and Systematic Risk in Stock Returns," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(1), pages 305-344, January.
    11. Engsted, Tom & Pedersen, Thomas Q. & Tanggaard, Carsten, 2012. "Pitfalls in VAR based return decompositions: A clarification," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 1255-1265.
    12. Ketterer, Simeon & Dionysiou, Dionysia & Eierle, Brigitte & Tsalavoutas, Ioannis, 2023. "Validating implied cost of capital with realized returns by using alternative measures of cash-flow news," The British Accounting Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(6).
    13. Carmelo Giaccotto & Alain Krapl, 2014. "Good News and Bad News about Firm-Level Stock Returns of Internationally Exposed Firms," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 14(4), pages 523-550, December.
    14. Julio Sarmiento & Mehdi Sadeghi & Juan S. Sandoval & Edgardo Cayon, 2021. "The application of proxy methods for estimating the cost of equity for unlisted companies: evidence from listed firms," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 57(3), pages 1009-1031, October.
    15. Lof, Matthijs & Nyberg, Henri, 2024. "Discount rates and cash flows: A local projection approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).
    16. Jiang, Junhua, 2017. "Discount rate or cash flow contagion? Evidence from the recent financial crises," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(PA), pages 315-326.
    17. Atif Ellahie, 2021. "Earnings beta," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 26(1), pages 81-122, March.
    18. Engsted, Tom & Pedersen, Thomas Q., 2014. "Housing market volatility in the OECD area: Evidence from VAR based return decompositions," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 91-103.
    19. Wei, Peihwang & Yang, Xiaolou, 2012. "Do investors value REITs and Non-REITs differently?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 295-302.
    20. Kausar, Rabia & Qayyum, Abdul, 2018. "How Cash Flow News and Discount Rate News Impact the Unexpected Stock Returns of Energy Firms of Pakistan," MPRA Paper 91165, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Log-linear model; Greater China; Cash-flow beta; Discount-rate beta; Market status;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:finana:v:63:y:2019:i:c:p:58-68. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620166 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.