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Cointegration for market forecast in the Spanish stock market

Author

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  • Carmen Ansotegui
  • Maria Victoria Esteban

Abstract

This study is interested in empirically testing the existence of a long-run relationship between the Spanish stock market and its fundamentals, and in checking to which extent this relationship helps in forecasting. This study is concerned with the behaviour of the aggregate Madrid Stock Exchange in a macroeconomic context. It also identifies as macroeconomic fundamentals: industrial production as a proxy for real activity, inflation and interest rates. This study tests the existence of cointegration by Johansen's procedure. The long-run relationships among the variables implied by the existence of cointegration do not allow inference to the interrelations among the variables. To get some insight into the short-run interactions among the variables, an impulse response analysis was performed. This study compares the forecasting ability of its model with respect to alternative multivariate specifications in terms of RMSE. Also measured is the value of the forecast for the financial agents assessing the extent to which it helps improve asset allocation.

Suggested Citation

  • Carmen Ansotegui & Maria Victoria Esteban, 2002. "Cointegration for market forecast in the Spanish stock market," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(7), pages 843-857.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:34:y:2002:i:7:p:843-857
    DOI: 10.1080/00036840110058932
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Johansen, Soren, 1992. "Determination of Cointegration Rank in the Presence of a Linear Trend," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 383-397, August.
    2. Shmuel Kandel & Robert F. Stambaugh, "undated". "Modeling Expected Stock Returns for Long and Short Horizons," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 42-88, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
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    Cited by:

    1. Nicolás Magner Pulgar & Esteban José Antonio Terán Sánchez & Vicente Alfonso Guzmán Muñoz, 2022. "Stock Market Synchronization and Stock Volatility: The Case of an Emerging Market," Remef - Revista Mexicana de Economía y Finanzas Nueva Época REMEF (The Mexican Journal of Economics and Finance), Instituto Mexicano de Ejecutivos de Finanzas, IMEF, vol. 17(3), pages 1-22, Julio - S.
    2. Zouheir Mighri & Faysal Mansouri, 2016. "Asymmetric price transmission within the Argentinean stock market: an asymmetric threshold cointegration approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 51(3), pages 1115-1149, November.
    3. Keun-Yeob Oh & Bonghan Kim & Honkee Kim, 2006. "An empirical study of the relation between stock price and EPS in panel data: Korea case," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(20), pages 2361-2369.
    4. Chung-Hua Shen & Chien-Fu Chen & Li-Hsueh Chen, 2007. "An empirical study of the asymmetric cointegration relationships among the Chinese stock markets," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(11), pages 1433-1445.
    5. Andreas Andrikopoulos & Aristeidis Samitas & Konstantinos Kougepsakis, 2014. "Volatility transmission across currencies and stock markets: GIIPS in crisis," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(19), pages 1261-1283, October.

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