IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/apfiec/v17y2007i2p119-138.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Banks' riskiness over the business cycle: a panel analysis on Italian intermediaries

Author

Listed:
  • Mario Quagliariello

Abstract

A comprehensive investigation is provided on the issue of the possible cyclical nature of banks' behaviour using a large panel of Italian intermediaries over the period 1985 to 2002. Estimating both static and dynamic models, the article investigates whether loan loss provisions and non-performing loans show a cyclical pattern. The econometric results confirm that business cycle affects banks' loan loss provisions and new bad debts. The impact of recessionary conditions is significant and long-lasting. Moreover, the empirical evidence provides some support for the income-smoothing hypothesis. The estimated relations may be employed to carry out stress tests to assess the effects of macroeconomic shocks on banks' balance sheets.

Suggested Citation

  • Mario Quagliariello, 2007. "Banks' riskiness over the business cycle: a panel analysis on Italian intermediaries," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(2), pages 119-138.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:apfiec:v:17:y:2007:i:2:p:119-138
    DOI: 10.1080/09603100500486501
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/09603100500486501
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1080/09603100500486501?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Laeven, Luc & Majnoni, Giovanni, 2003. "Loan loss provisioning and economic slowdowns: too much, too late?," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 178-197, April.
    2. Giancarlo Bruno & Edoardo Otranto, 2003. "Dating the Italian Business Cycle: A Comparison of Procedures," Econometrics 0312003, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
    4. Vicente Salas & Jesús Saurina, 2002. "Credit Risk in Two Institutional Regimes: Spanish Commercial and Savings Banks," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 22(3), pages 203-224, December.
    5. Ahmed, Anwer S. & Takeda, Carolyn & Thomas, Shawn, 1999. "Bank loan loss provisions: a reexamination of capital management, earnings management and signaling effects," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 1-25, November.
    6. Manuel Arellano & Stephen Bond, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 58(2), pages 277-297.
    7. Markus Arpa & Irene Giulini & Andreas Ittner & Franz Pauer, 2001. "The influence of macroeconomic developments on Austrian banks: implications for banking supervision," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Marrying the macro- and micro-prudential dimensions of financial stability, volume 1, pages 91-116, Bank for International Settlements.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mario Quagliariello, 2006. "Banks� Riskiness Over the Business Cicle: a Panel Analysis on Italian Intermediaries," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 599, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    2. Vasiliki Makri, 2015. "What Triggers Loan Losses? An Empirical Investigation of Greek Financial Sector," SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, University of Piraeus, vol. 65(3-4), pages 119-143, july-Dece.
    3. Mario Quagliariello, "undated". "Banks' Performance over the Business Cycle: A Panel Analysis on Italian Intermediaries," Discussion Papers 04/17, Department of Economics, University of York.
    4. Davis, E. Philip & Zhu, Haibin, 2009. "Commercial property prices and bank performance," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(4), pages 1341-1359, November.
    5. Vincent Bouvatier & Laetitia Lepetit, 2006. "Banks' procyclicality behavior: does provisioning matter?," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00115622, HAL.
    6. Vasiliki Makri, 2016. "Towards an Investigation of Credit Risk Determinants in Eurozone Countries," Journal of Accounting and Management Information Systems, Faculty of Accounting and Management Information Systems, The Bucharest University of Economic Studies, vol. 15(1), pages 27-57, March.
    7. Anton Belgrave & Kester Guy & Mahalia Jackman, 2012. "Industry Specific Shocks and Non-Performing Loans in Barbados," The Review of Finance and Banking, Academia de Studii Economice din Bucuresti, Romania / Facultatea de Finante, Asigurari, Banci si Burse de Valori / Catedra de Finante, vol. 4(2), pages 123-133, December.
    8. Vasiliki MAKRI & Konstantinos PAPADATOS, 2016. "Determinants Of Loan Quality: Lessons From Greek Cooperative Banks," Review of Economic and Business Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, issue 17, pages 115-140, June.
    9. Bouvatier, Vincent & Lepetit, Laetitia, 2008. "Banks' procyclical behavior: Does provisioning matter?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 18(5), pages 513-526, December.
    10. Ozili, Peterson K, 2015. "Loan Loss Provisioning, Income Smoothing, Signaling, Capital Management and Procyclicality: Does IFRS Matter? Empirical Evidence from Nigeria," MPRA Paper 68350, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Gabriel Jiménez & Jesús Saurina, 2006. "Credit Cycles, Credit Risk, and Prudential Regulation," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 2(2), May.
    12. Juan Amador & José Gómez-González & Andrés Pabón, 2013. "Loan growth and bank risk: new evidence," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 27(4), pages 365-379, December.
    13. Emrah Arbak, 2017. "Identifying the provisioning policies of Belgian banks," Working Paper Research 326, National Bank of Belgium.
    14. Wahyoe Soedarmono & Amine Tarazi & Agusman Agusman & Gary S. Monroe & Dominic Gasbarro, 2016. "Loan Loss Provisions and Lending Behavior of Banks: Do Information Sharing and Borrower Legal Rights Matter?," Working Papers hal-01316717, HAL.
    15. Bornemann, Sven & Kick, Thomas & Memmel, Christoph & Pfingsten, Andreas, 2012. "Are banks using hidden reserves to beat earnings benchmarks? Evidence from Germany," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(8), pages 2403-2415.
    16. Hegde, Shantaram P. & Kozlowski, Steven E., 2021. "Discretionary loan loss provisioning and bank stock returns: The Role of economic booms and busts," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    17. Balla, Eliana & Rose, Morgan J., 2015. "Loan loss provisions, accounting constraints, and bank ownership structure," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 92-117.
    18. Avignone, Giuseppe & Altunbas, Yener & Polizzi, Salvatore & Reghezza, Alessio, 2021. "Centralised or decentralised banking supervision? Evidence from European banks," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    19. Antonio Miguel Martins & Ana Paula Serra & Francisco Vitorino Martins & Simon Stevenson, 2019. "Residential Property Loans and Bank Performance during Property Price Booms: Evidence from Europe," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 20(1), pages 247-295, May.
    20. Kurt Hess & Arthur Grimes & Mark Holmes, 2009. "Credit Losses in Australasian Banking," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 85(270), pages 331-343, September.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:apfiec:v:17:y:2007:i:2:p:119-138. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/RAFE20 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.