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Are commodity prices mean reverting?

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  • Henrik Andersson

Abstract

Are commodity prices mean reverting or do they follow a random walk? As traditional unit root tests lack power, this article proposes using the ability to hedge option contracts as a measure of the most appropriate stochastic process. A misspecified price process will, quite naturally, result in larger hedging errors. The hedging errors, therefore, give an economic as opposed to statistical measure of mean reversion. Market prices of almost 300 different commodities from 1970 and onwards are studied. In line with the low power of statistical unit root tests, we are only able to reject a unit root for some 15% of the commodity price series and mean reversion is accepted for even fewer series. Hedging errors are, however, smaller for the mean reverting process, supporting the intuition that commodity prices are mean reverting.

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  • Henrik Andersson, 2007. "Are commodity prices mean reverting?," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(10), pages 769-783.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:apfiec:v:17:y:2007:i:10:p:769-783
    DOI: 10.1080/09603100600749204
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    10. Armstrong, Margaret & Langrené, Nicolas & Petter, Renato & Chen, Wen & Petter, Carlos, 2019. "Accounting for tailings dam failures in the valuation of mining projects," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 1-1.

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