IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/apfiec/v19y2009i8p595-610.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Momentum trading, disposition effects and prediction of future share prices: an experimental study of multiple reference points in responses to short- and long-run return trends

Author

Listed:
  • Henrik Svedsater
  • Niklas Karlsson
  • Tommy Garling

Abstract

Returns of equities tend to exhibit momentum in the short to medium term and reversals in the longer term. While presenting results partly supporting such findings, we demonstrate that investors rely on multiple reference points in their trading behaviour. In particular it is shown that the interaction between long- and short-run returns may have important explanatory value for investment decisions. Predictions of future stock prices furthermore tend to be positively biased when evaluated against trading patterns, while loss aversion may drive investors to sometimes act against their beliefs about market sentiments. Implications for market responses to price movements are discussed.

Suggested Citation

  • Henrik Svedsater & Niklas Karlsson & Tommy Garling, 2009. "Momentum trading, disposition effects and prediction of future share prices: an experimental study of multiple reference points in responses to short- and long-run return trends," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(8), pages 595-610.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:apfiec:v:19:y:2009:i:8:p:595-610
    DOI: 10.1080/09603100801982620
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/09603100801982620
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1080/09603100801982620?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mark Grinblatt & Matti Keloharju, 2001. "What Makes Investors Trade?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(2), pages 589-616, April.
    2. Matthew Rabin, 2002. "Inference by Believers in the Law of Small Numbers," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 117(3), pages 775-816.
    3. repec:bla:jfinan:v:53:y:1998:i:1:p:267-284 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Eun, Cheol S. & Sabherwal, Sanjiv, 2002. "Forecasting exchange rates: Do banks know better?," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 195-215.
    5. David M. Cutler & James M. Poterba & Lawrence H. Summers, 1991. "Speculative Dynamics," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 58(3), pages 529-546.
    6. repec:bla:jfinan:v:53:y:1998:i:5:p:1775-1798 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. De Bondt, Werner P. M., 1993. "Betting on trends: Intuitive forecasts of financial risk and return," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 355-371, November.
    8. Harrison Hong & Jeremy C. Stein, 1999. "A Unified Theory of Underreaction, Momentum Trading, and Overreaction in Asset Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(6), pages 2143-2184, December.
    9. Henrik Andersson, 2007. "Are commodity prices mean reverting?," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(10), pages 769-783.
    10. Amir, Eli & Ganzach, Yoav, 1998. "Overreaction and underreaction in analysts' forecasts," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 333-347, November.
    11. Daniel Kahneman & Amos Tversky, 2013. "Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision Under Risk," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Leonard C MacLean & William T Ziemba (ed.), HANDBOOK OF THE FUNDAMENTALS OF FINANCIAL DECISION MAKING Part I, chapter 6, pages 99-127, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    12. Shefrin, Hersh & Statman, Meir, 1985. "The Disposition to Sell Winners Too Early and Ride Losers Too Long: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(3), pages 777-790, July.
    13. Weber, Martin & Camerer, Colin F., 1998. "The disposition effect in securities trading: an experimental analysis," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 167-184, January.
    14. repec:bla:jfinan:v:53:y:1998:i:6:p:1839-1885 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Andreassen, Paul B., 1988. "Explaining the price-volume relationship: The difference between price changes and changing prices," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 371-389, June.
    16. Bernard, Victor L. & Thomas, Jacob K., 1990. "Evidence that stock prices do not fully reflect the implications of current earnings for future earnings," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 305-340, December.
    17. Jegadeesh, Narasimhan & Titman, Sheridan, 1993. "Returns to Buying Winners and Selling Losers: Implications for Stock Market Efficiency," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(1), pages 65-91, March.
    18. La Porta, Rafael, 1996. "Expectations and the Cross-Section of Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(5), pages 1715-1742, December.
    19. Nicholas Barberis & Ming Huang & Tano Santos, 2001. "Prospect Theory and Asset Prices," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 116(1), pages 1-53.
    20. De Bondt, Werner F M & Thaler, Richard, 1985. "Does the Stock Market Overreact?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(3), pages 793-805, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Cheng-Po Lai, 2019. "Personality Traits and Stock Investment of Individuals," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(19), pages 1-20, October.
    2. Liao, Li-Chuan & Chou, Ray Yeutien & Chiu, Banghan, 2013. "Anchoring effect on foreign institutional investors’ momentum trading behavior: Evidence from the Taiwan stock market," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 72-91.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Daniel, Kent & Hirshleifer, David & Teoh, Siew Hong, 2002. "Investor psychology in capital markets: evidence and policy implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 139-209, January.
    2. Adam Zaremba & Jacob Koby Shemer, 2018. "Price-Based Investment Strategies," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-3-319-91530-2, December.
    3. Grinblatt, Mark & Han, Bing, 2005. "Prospect theory, mental accounting, and momentum," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(2), pages 311-339, November.
    4. Alexander Ludwig & Alexander Zimper, 2013. "A decision-theoretic model of asset-price underreaction and overreaction to dividend news," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 9(4), pages 625-665, November.
    5. John Y. Campbell, 2000. "Asset Pricing at the Millennium," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(4), pages 1515-1567, August.
    6. Bing NMI1 Han & Mark Grinblatt, 2001. "The Disposition Effect and Momentum," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm239, Yale School of Management.
    7. David Hirshleifer, 2001. "Investor Psychology and Asset Pricing," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(4), pages 1533-1597, August.
    8. Weber, Martin & Welfens, Frank, 2007. "How do markets react to fundamental shocks? : An experimental analysis on underreaction and momentum," Papers 07-42, Sonderforschungsbreich 504.
    9. Chakravarty, Sugato & Ray, Rina, 2020. "On short-term institutional trading skill, behavioral biases, and liquidity need," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    10. Mirjam Lehenkari & Jukka Perttunen, 2010. "Holding on to the Losers: Finnish Evidence," Chapters, in: Brian Bruce (ed.), Handbook of Behavioral Finance, chapter 17, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    11. Bouteska, Ahmed & Kabir Hassan, M. & Gider, Zeynullah & Bataineh, Hassan, 2024. "The role of investor sentiment and market belief in forecasting V-shaped disposition effect: Evidence from a Bayesian learning process with DSSW model," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    12. Daniela Vesselinova Balkanska, 2018. "Disposition effect and analyst forecast dispersion," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 50(3), pages 837-859, April.
    13. Ormos, Mihály & Joó, István, 2011. "Diszpozíciós hatás a magyar tőkepiacon [Disposition effect in the Hungarian capital market]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(9), pages 743-758.
    14. Shi, Leilei & Wang, Binghong & Guo, Xinshuai & Li, Honggang, 2021. "A price dynamic equilibrium model with trading volume weights based on a price-volume probability wave differential equation," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    15. Pereira Reichhardt, Joaquín & Iqbal, Tabassum, 2014. "Investment Decisions: Are we fully-Rational?," MPRA Paper 57686, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Grosshans, Daniel & Zeisberger, Stefan, 2018. "All’s well that ends well? On the importance of how returns are achieved," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 397-410.
    17. Avanidhar Subrahmanyam, 2008. "Behavioural Finance: A Review and Synthesis," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 14(1), pages 12-29, January.
    18. Arkes, Hal R. & Hirshleifer, David & Jiang, Danling & Lim, Sonya, 2008. "Reference point adaptation: Tests in the domain of security trading," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 67-81, January.
    19. Massa, Massimo & von Beschwitz, Bastian, 2015. "Biased Shorts: Stock Market Implications of Short Sellers? Disposition Effect," CEPR Discussion Papers 10535, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    20. Barberis, Nicholas & Xiong, Wei, 2012. "Realization utility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(2), pages 251-271.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:apfiec:v:19:y:2009:i:8:p:595-610. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/RAFE20 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.