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Testing for cointegration between international stock prices

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  • Niklas Ahlgren
  • Jan Antell

Abstract

This paper re-examines the evidence for cointegration between international stock prices. It applies Johansen's maximum likelihood (ML) cointegration method and likelihood ratio (LR) tests for cointegration to stock prices. In monthly data it finds at most one cointegrating vector and in quarterly data finds no cointegrating vectors. Using the small-sample corrections or the small-sample critical values it finds no evidence of cointegration. Johansen's LR tests for cointegration are sensitive to the lag length specification in the VAR model. In general it finds more evidence of cointegration in higher order VAR models. The paper shows that some of the previous empirical results can be explained by the small-sample bias and size distortion of Johansen's LR tests for cointegration. It finds that international stock prices are not cointegrated.

Suggested Citation

  • Niklas Ahlgren & Jan Antell, 2002. "Testing for cointegration between international stock prices," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(12), pages 851-861.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:apfiec:v:12:y:2002:i:12:p:851-861
    DOI: 10.1080/09603100110050743
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    Cited by:

    1. al Bdiwy, Feras & Masih, Mansur, 2017. "The lead-lag relationship among select regional islamic equity markets," MPRA Paper 104973, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Phengpis, Chanwit, 2006. "Market efficiency and cointegration of spot exchange rates during periods of economic turmoil: Another look at European and Asian currency crises," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 58(4), pages 323-342.
    3. Christos Floros, 2005. "Price Linkages Between the US, Japan and UK Stock Markets," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 19(2), pages 169-178, August.
    4. Taher, Sumaiyah & Masih, Mansur, 2018. "Which market is the driver of the Asian stock markets ?," MPRA Paper 107975, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Ahlgren, Niklas & Antell, Jan, 2008. "Cobreaking of Stock Prices and Contagion," Working Papers 537, Hanken School of Economics.
    6. Chancharat,Surachai & Valadkhani, Abbas, 2007. "An Empirical Analysis of the Thai and Major International Stock Markets," Economics Working Papers wp07-13, School of Economics, University of Wollongong, NSW, Australia.
    7. Vítor Manuel de Sousa Gabriel & David Rodeiro‐Pazos, 2018. "Do Short‐ and Long‐Term Environmental Investments Follow the Same Path?," Corporate Social Responsibility and Environmental Management, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 25(1), pages 14-28, January.
    8. Marcel Aloy & Mohamed Boutahar & Karine Gente & Anne P駵in-Feissolle, 2013. "Long-run relationships between international stock prices: further evidence from fractional cointegration tests," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(7), pages 817-828, March.
    9. Ahlgren, N. & Antell, J., 2008. "Bootstrap and fast double bootstrap tests of cointegration rank with financial time series," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(10), pages 4754-4767, June.
    10. Bank for International Settlements, 2008. "Integration of India's stock market with global and major regional markets," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Regional financial integration in Asia: present and future, volume 42, pages 202-236, Bank for International Settlements.
    11. Nasir, Nur Alissa & Masih, Mansur, 2018. "Are the stock indices of FTSE Malaysia, China and USA causally linked together ?," MPRA Paper 98782, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Yan Zhang, 2018. "China, Japan and the US Stock Markets and the Global Financial Crisis," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 25(1), pages 23-45, March.
    13. Ahlgren, Niklas & Antell, Jan, 2010. "Stock market linkages and financial contagion: A cobreaking analysis," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(2), pages 157-166, May.
    14. Moinak Maiti & Darko Vukovic & Yaroslav Vyklyuk & Zoran Grubisic, 2022. "BRICS Capital Markets Co-Movement Analysis and Forecasting," Risks, MDPI, vol. 10(5), pages 1-13, April.
    15. Laopodis, Nikiforos T., 2005. "Portfolio diversification benefits within Europe: Implications for a US investor," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 455-476.
    16. Tsutsui, Yoshiro & Hirayama, Kenjiro, 2005. "Estimation of the common and country-specific shock to stock prices," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 322-337, September.
    17. Marco Corazza & A. Malliaris & Elisa Scalco, 2010. "Nonlinear Bivariate Comovements of Asset Prices: Methodology, Tests and Applications," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 35(1), pages 1-23, January.
    18. Miller, J. Isaac & Ratti, Ronald A., 2009. "Crude oil and stock markets: Stability, instability, and bubbles," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 559-568, July.
    19. Alex YiHou Huang, 2009. "A value-at-risk approach with kernel estimator," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(5), pages 379-395.
    20. Bank for International Settlements & Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research, 2008. "Regional financial integration in Asia: present and future," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 42, October –.
    21. Kasilingam Lingaraja & Murugesan Selvam & Vinayagamoorthi Vasanth & Ramachandran Rajesh Ramkumar, 2015. "Long-run Overseas Portfolio Diversification Benefits and Opportunities of Asian Emerging Stock Markets and Developed Markets," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 5(2), pages 324-333.
    22. repec:ehu:cuader:30018 is not listed on IDEAS
    23. Meshach Jesse Aziakpono, 2008. "Financial And Monetary Autonomy And Interdependence Between South Africa And The Other Sacu Countries," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 76(2), pages 189-211, June.
    24. Sanidas, Elias & Jayanthakumaran, Kankesu, 2006. "The Consequences of Trade Liberalisation on the Australian Passenger Motor Vehicle Industry," Economics Working Papers wp06-01, School of Economics, University of Wollongong, NSW, Australia.
    25. Sant’Anna, Leonardo R. & Filomena, Tiago P. & Caldeira, João F., 2017. "Index tracking and enhanced indexing using cointegration and correlation with endogenous portfolio selection," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 146-157.

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