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Bootstrap and fast double bootstrap tests of cointegration rank with financial time series

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  • Ahlgren, N.
  • Antell, J.

Abstract

The likelihood ratio test of cointegration rank is the most widely used test for cointegration. Many studies have shown that its finite sample distribution is not well approximated by the limiting distribution. Bootstrap and fast double bootstrap (FDB) algorithms for the likelihood ratio test are introduced and evaluated by Monte Carlo simulation experiments. It is found that the performance of the ordinary (single) bootstrap test is in most cases good in terms of the size of the test. The FDB produces a further improvement in cases where the performance of the asymptotic test is unsatisfactory and the single bootstrap test overrejects noticeably. The FDBÂ is shown to be a useful supplement to the single bootstrap as a tool for determining the cointegration rank. The tests are applied to US interest rates and international stock prices series. By simulating the data assuming that the cointegration rank is known, it is found that the asymptotic test tends to overestimate the cointegration rank, while the bootstrap and FDB tests choose the correct cointegration rank.

Suggested Citation

  • Ahlgren, N. & Antell, J., 2008. "Bootstrap and fast double bootstrap tests of cointegration rank with financial time series," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(10), pages 4754-4767, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:csdana:v:52:y:2008:i:10:p:4754-4767
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    1. Ahlgren, Niklas & Antell, Jan, 2008. "Cobreaking of Stock Prices and Contagion," Working Papers 537, Hanken School of Economics.
    2. Kascha, Christian & Trenkler, Carsten, 2011. "Bootstrapping the likelihood ratio cointegration test in error correction models with unknown lag order," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 1008-1017, February.
    3. Kulp-Tåg, Sofie, 2007. "An Empirical Comparison of Linear and Nonlinear Volatility Models for Nordic Stock Returns," Working Papers 525, Hanken School of Economics.
    4. Strandvik, Tore & Holmlund, Maria & Edvardsson, Bo, 2008. "Customer Needing - Conceptualising Industrial Service from a Customer Perspective," Working Papers 536, Hanken School of Economics.
    5. Niklas Ahlgren & Jan Antell, 2013. "The power of bootstrap tests of cointegration rank," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 28(6), pages 2719-2748, December.
    6. Ren, Tongxian & Long, Zhihe & Zhang, Rengui & Chen, Qingqing, 2014. "Moran's I test of spatial panel data model — Based on bootstrap method," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 9-14.
    7. Wägar, Karolina & Björk, Peter & Ravald, Annika & West, Björn, 2007. "Exploring Marketing in Micro Firms," Working Papers 531, Hanken School of Economics.
    8. Ahlgren, Niklas & Antell, Jan, 2010. "Stock market linkages and financial contagion: A cobreaking analysis," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(2), pages 157-166, May.
    9. Ahlgren, Niklas & Antell, Jan, 2009. "The Power of Bootstrap Tests of Cointegration Rank with Financial Time Series," Working Papers 541, Hanken School of Economics.
    10. Ou Bianling & Long Zhihe & Li Wenqian, 2019. "Bootstrap LM Tests for Spatial Dependence in Panel Data Models with Fixed Effects," Journal of Systems Science and Information, De Gruyter, vol. 7(4), pages 330-343, August.
    11. Niklas Ahlgren & Mikael Juselius, 2012. "Tests for cointegration rank and the initial condition," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 42(3), pages 667-691, June.
    12. Niklas Ahlgren & Paul Catani, 2017. "Wild bootstrap tests for autocorrelation in vector autoregressive models," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 58(4), pages 1189-1216, December.
    13. Ekholm, Bo-Göran & Wallin, Jan, 2006. "Flexible Budgeting under Uncertainty: A Real Options Perspective," Working Papers 520, Hanken School of Economics.
    14. Nicoleta ISAC & Cosmin DOBRIN & Mehmood HUSSAN & Asad ul Islam KHAN & Alina- Andreea MARIN, 2020. "On The Ranks Of Tests Having Null Of Cointegration: A Monte Carlo Comparison," Management Research and Practice, Research Centre in Public Administration and Public Services, Bucharest, Romania, vol. 12(2), pages 58-69, June.
    15. Segercrantz, Beata, 2007. "Constructing Stability in Software Product Development during Organizational Restructurings," Working Papers 527, Hanken School of Economics.

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