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Interest rate spreads between Italy and Germany: 1995-1997

Author

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  • Marcello D'Amato
  • Barbara Pistoresi

Abstract

In this paper the determinants of the long term yield spread between Italian and German government bonds are studied using daily observations for a period 1 January 1995-28 October 1997. Total spread is split into two main factors: an exchange rate factor, that is approximated by a differential on swap contracts (same maturity) and a default risk factor, that is considered as a residual. Cointegration analysis is used to test if the interest rates parity condition holds in the period considered and also the dynamic adjustment of total spread and its components is studied using impulse response analysis. The main result is that an uncovered parity condition cannot be rejected in the sample only if the relationship is augmented by the German short term interest rate. Impulse response analysis shows that this latter variable permanently affects the default risk. The main conclusion is that the reduction of the total spread in the period studied was due both to credibility gains and to favourable dynamics in the German interest rate.

Suggested Citation

  • Marcello D'Amato & Barbara Pistoresi, 2001. "Interest rate spreads between Italy and Germany: 1995-1997," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(6), pages 603-612.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:apfiec:v:11:y:2001:i:6:p:603-612
    DOI: 10.1080/096031001753266894
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Canova, Fabio & Nicoló, Gianni De, 2000. "Stock Returns, Term Structure, Inflation, And Real Activity: An International Perspective," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 4(3), pages 343-372, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Stefanescu, Razvan & Dumitriu, Ramona & Nistor, Costel, 2009. "Analysis of the dynamic relation between the currency rates and the interest rates from Romania and euro area before and during the financial crisis," MPRA Paper 41744, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 04 Mar 2010.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • O52 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Europe

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