IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/apfiec/v11y2001i3p261-268.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A note on testing the monetary model of the exchange rate

Author

Listed:
  • Mathias Moersch
  • Dieter Nautz

Abstract

In this note an alternative to the widely used reduced - form tests of the monetary model of the exchange rate is proposed. It is shown that the reduced form approach rests on implausible parameter restrictions which can be easily avoided by estimating the long-run money demand functions separately. Moreover, the resulting 'structural' forecast equation allows an economic interpretation of the various channels affecting the exchange rate in the monetary model. This approach is illustrated with reference to the DM/Dollar exchange rate where the structural model outperforms several alternative forecasting strategies out-of-sample.

Suggested Citation

  • Mathias Moersch & Dieter Nautz, 2001. "A note on testing the monetary model of the exchange rate," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(3), pages 261-268.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:apfiec:v:11:y:2001:i:3:p:261-268
    DOI: 10.1080/096031001300138654
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/096031001300138654
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1080/096031001300138654?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Steigerwald, Douglas G., 1996. "Purchasing power parity, unit roots, and dynamic structure," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 2(4), pages 343-357, February.
    2. Toru Konishi & Valerie A. Ramey & Clive W.J. Granger, 1993. "Stochastic Trends and Short-Run Relationships Between Financial Variables and Real Activity," NBER Working Papers 4275, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Kim, Benjamin J. C. & Mo, Soowon, 1995. "Cointegration and the long-run forecast of exchange rates," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 48(3-4), pages 353-359, June.
    4. Campbell, John Y & Shiller, Robert J, 1987. "Cointegration and Tests of Present Value Models," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(5), pages 1062-1088, October.
    5. Meese, Richard A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies : Do they fit out of sample?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 3-24, February.
    6. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    7. MacDonald, Ronald & Taylor, Mark P., 1994. "The monetary model of the exchange rate: long-run relationships, short-run dynamics and how to beat a random walk," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 276-290, June.
    8. Ronald MacDonald & Mark P. Taylor (ed.), 1991. "Exchange Rate Economics," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, volume 0, number 569.
    9. Nautz, Dieter, 1998. "Banks' demand for reserves when future monetary policy is uncertain," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 161-183, June.
    10. Phillips, Peter C B, 1994. "Some Exact Distribution Theory for Maximum Likelihood Estimators of Cointegrating Coefficients in Error Correction Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(1), pages 73-93, January.
    11. Stock, James H, 1987. "Asymptotic Properties of Least Squares Estimators of Cointegrating Vectors," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(5), pages 1035-1056, September.
    12. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501.
    13. Fritsche, Charmaine Pereira & Wallace, Myles, 1997. "Forecasting the exchange rate PPP versus a random walk," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 69-74, January.
    14. Choudhry, Taufiq & Lawler, Phillip, 1997. "The Monetary Model of Exchange Rates: Evidence from the Canadian Float of the 1950s," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 349-362, April.
    15. Engsted, Tom & Tanggaard, Carsten, 1994. "Cointegration and the US term structure," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 167-181, January.
    16. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Beckmann, Joscha & Czudaj, Robert, 2014. "Regime shifts and the Canada/US exchange rate in a multivariate framework," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 123(2), pages 206-211.
    2. Joscha Beckmann, 2013. "Nonlinear Exchange Rate Adjustment and the Monetary Model," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(4), pages 654-670, September.
    3. Bruce Morley, 2007. "The monetary model of the exchange rate and equities: an ARDL bounds testing approach," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(5), pages 391-397.
    4. Dieter Nautz & Karsten Ruth, 2008. "Monetary disequilibria and the euro/dollar exchange rate," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(8), pages 701-716.
    5. Ioannis Litsios & Keith Pilbeam, 2019. "The Role Of National Debts In The Determination Of The Yen‐Dollar Exchange Rate," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 57(2), pages 1182-1195, April.
    6. Enzo Weber, 2013. "Economic integration and the foreign exchange," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 10(2), pages 201-215, June.
    7. Kari Heimonen, 2006. "Time-Varying Fundamentals of the Euro-Dollar Exchange Rate," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(4), pages 385-407.
    8. Kuzmin, Anton, 1971. "A Structural Model of Exchange Rate Dynamics," MPRA Paper 64614, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Nautz, Dieter & Offermanns, Christian J., 2006. "Does the Euro follow the German Mark? Evidence from the monetary model of the exchange rate," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 50(5), pages 1279-1295, July.
    10. Carlos Eduardo Castillo-Maldonado & Fidel Pérez-Macal, 2013. "Assessment of models to forecast exchange rates: The quetzal–U.S. dollar exchange rate," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 16, pages 71-99, May.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Moersch, Mathias & Nautz, Dieter, 1998. "The monetary model of the exchange rate: A structural interpretation," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 1998,6, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
    2. W A Razzak & Thomas Grennes, 1998. "The long-run nominal exchange rate: specification and estimation issues," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series G98/5, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    3. Bekiros, Stelios D., 2014. "Exchange rates and fundamentals: Co-movement, long-run relationships and short-run dynamics," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 117-134.
    4. Adawo, Monday A. & Effiong, Ekpeno L., 2013. "Monetary exchange rate model as a long-run phenomenon: evidence from Nigeria," MPRA Paper 46407, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Works, Richard Floyd, 2016. "Econometric modeling of exchange rate determinants by market classification: An empirical analysis of Japan and South Korea using the sticky-price monetary theory," MPRA Paper 76382, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Håvard Hungnes & Hilde C. Bjørnland, 2006. "The importance of interest rates for forecasting the exchange rate," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(3), pages 209-221.
    7. Luis A. Gil‐Alana, 2003. "Testing of Fractional Cointegration in Macroeconomic Time Series," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 65(4), pages 517-529, September.
    8. Venus Khim-Sen Liew & Ahmad Zubaidi Baharumshah & Chin-Hong Puah, 2009. "Monetary Model of Exchange Rate for Thailand: Long-run Relationship and Monetary Restrictions," Global Economic Review, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(4), pages 385-395.
    9. Peter Rowland, 2003. "Forecasting the USD/COP Exchange Rate: A Random Walk a Variable Drift," Borradores de Economia 253, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    10. Committee, Nobel Prize, 2003. "Time-series Econometrics: Cointegration and Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity," Nobel Prize in Economics documents 2003-1, Nobel Prize Committee.
    11. George Tawadros, 2001. "The predictive power of the monetary model of exchange rate determination," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(3), pages 279-286.
    12. Ekpeno L. Effiong, 2014. "Exchange Rate Dynamics and Monetary Fundamentals: A Cointegrated SVAR Approach for Nigeria," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 15(2), pages 205-221, June.
    13. M. Faizul Islam & Mohammad S. Hasan, 2006. "The Monetary Model of the Dollar-Yen Exchange Rate Determination: A Cointegration Approach," International Journal of Business and Economics, School of Management Development, Feng Chia University, Taichung, Taiwan, vol. 5(2), pages 129-145, August.
    14. Peter Rowland, 2003. "Forecasting The Usd/Cop Exchange Rate: A Random Walk With A Variable Drift," Borradores de Economia 2736, Banco de la Republica.
    15. Sylviane GUILLAUMONT JEANNENEY & Emmanuelle ROUMEGOUS, 2003. "Exchange Rate Dynamics with Currency Substitution: the Case of Ghana, Paraguay and Uruguay," Working Papers 200302, CERDI.
    16. Charles S. Morris & Robert Neal & Doug Rolph, 1998. "Credit spreads and interest rates : a cointegration approach," Research Working Paper 98-08, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    17. Hansen, Peter Reinhard, 2003. "Structural changes in the cointegrated vector autoregressive model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 114(2), pages 261-295, June.
    18. Neil R. Ericsson & James G. MacKinnon, 2002. "Distributions of error correction tests for cointegration," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 5(2), pages 285-318, June.
    19. Levent KORAP, 2008. "Exchange Rate Determination Of Tl/Us$:A Co-Integration Approach," Istanbul University Econometrics and Statistics e-Journal, Department of Econometrics, Faculty of Economics, Istanbul University, vol. 7(1), pages 24-50, May.
    20. Martin D. Evans & Karen K. Lewis, 1992. "Peso Problems and Heterogeneous Trading: Evidence from Excess Returns in Foreign Exchange and Euromarkets," Working Papers 92-13, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:apfiec:v:11:y:2001:i:3:p:261-268. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/RAFE20 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.