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A note on unemployment rates and the paper-bill spread

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  • Christian Weber

Abstract

This paper reports a significant causal relationship from the paper-bill spread to the civilian unemployment rate even after accounting for the importance of output growth in explaining the unemployment rate. However, this relationship apparently vanished in the 1970s. Adding the paper-bill spread to the unemployment rate autoregression causes three key nominal variables, money growth, inflation, and a detrended interest rate to become jointly insignificant in all samples which include the 1980s.

Suggested Citation

  • Christian Weber, 1996. "A note on unemployment rates and the paper-bill spread," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(1), pages 49-51.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:3:y:1996:i:1:p:49-51
    DOI: 10.1080/758525516
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Friedman, Benjamin M. & Kuttner, Kenneth N., 1993. "Another look at the evidence on money-income causality," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 57(1-3), pages 189-203.
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    3. Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 1989. "Interpreting the evidence on money-income causality," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 161-181, January.
    4. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1993. "Business Cycles, Indicators, and Forecasting," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number stoc93-1, June.
    5. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1993. "Introduction to "Business Cycles, Indicators and Forecasting"," NBER Chapters, in: Business Cycles, Indicators, and Forecasting, pages 1-10, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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