IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/apeclt/v30y2023i1p7-13.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

COVID-19 effects on the S&P 500 index

Author

Listed:
  • Hakan Yilmazkuday

Abstract

This paper investigates the effects of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases in the US on the S&P 500 Index using daily data covering the period between 21st January, 2020 and 10th August, 2021. The investigation is achieved by using a structural vector autoregression model, where a measure of the global economic activity and the spread between 10-year treasury constant maturity and the federal funds rate are also included. The empirical results suggest that having $$1\% $$1% of an increase in cumulative daily COVID-19 cases in the US results in about $$0.01\% $$0.01% of a cumulative reduction in the S&P 500 Index after 1 day and about $$0.03\% $$0.03% of a reduction after 1 week. Historical decomposition of the S&P 500 Index further suggests that the negative effects of COVID-19 cases in the US on the S&P 500 Index have been mostly observed during March 2020.

Suggested Citation

  • Hakan Yilmazkuday, 2023. "COVID-19 effects on the S&P 500 index," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(1), pages 7-13, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:30:y:2023:i:1:p:7-13
    DOI: 10.1080/13504851.2021.1971607
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/13504851.2021.1971607
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1080/13504851.2021.1971607?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fan, Ying & Xu, Jin-Hua, 2011. "What has driven oil prices since 2000? A structural change perspective," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 1082-1094.
    2. Josue Cox & Daniel L. Greenwald & Sydney C. Ludvigson, 2020. "What Explains the COVID-19 Stock Market?," NBER Working Papers 27784, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Fama, Eugene F, 1981. "Stock Returns, Real Activity, Inflation, and Money," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(4), pages 545-565, September.
    4. Graham, Michael & Peltomäki, Jarkko & Piljak, Vanja, 2016. "Global economic activity as an explicator of emerging market equity returns," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 424-435.
    5. Qiu, Cheng & Colson, Gregory & Escalante, Cesar & Wetzstein, Michael, 2012. "Considering macroeconomic indicators in the food before fuel nexus," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 2021-2028.
    6. Lutz Kilian, 2009. "Not All Oil Price Shocks Are Alike: Disentangling Demand and Supply Shocks in the Crude Oil Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(3), pages 1053-1069, June.
    7. Ralitsa Petkova, 2006. "Do the Fama–French Factors Proxy for Innovations in Predictive Variables?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(2), pages 581-612, April.
    8. Unknown, 1986. "Letters," Choices: The Magazine of Food, Farm, and Resource Issues, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 1(4), pages 1-9.
    9. Huang, Roger D & Kracaw, William A, 1984. "Stock Market Returns and Real Activity: A Note," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 39(1), pages 267-273, March.
    10. Sharif, Arshian & Aloui, Chaker & Yarovaya, Larisa, 2020. "COVID-19 pandemic, oil prices, stock market, geopolitical risk and policy uncertainty nexus in the US economy: Fresh evidence from the wavelet-based approach," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    11. Camillo Lento & Nikola Gradojevic, 2021. "S&P 500 Index Price Spillovers around the COVID-19 Market Meltdown," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(7), pages 1-13, July.
    12. Spyros Makridakis & Andreas Merikas & Anna Merika & Mike G. Tsionas & Marwan Izzeldin, 2020. "A novel forecasting model for the Baltic dry index utilizing optimal squeezing," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(1), pages 56-68, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Li Chen & Guang Zhang, 2022. "COVID-19 Effects on Arbitrage Trading in the Energy Market," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(13), pages 1-13, June.
    2. Melike Bildirici & Işıl Şahin Onat & Özgür Ömer Ersin, 2023. "Forecasting BDI Sea Freight Shipment Cost, VIX Investor Sentiment and MSCI Global Stock Market Indicator Indices: LSTAR-GARCH and LSTAR-APGARCH Models," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(5), pages 1-27, March.
    3. Marek Nagy & Katarina Valaskova & Erika Kovalova & Marcel Macura, 2024. "Drivers of S&P 500’s Profitability: Implications for Investment Strategy and Risk Management," Economies, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-24, March.
    4. Chen, Song Xi & Guo, Bin & Qiu, Yumou, 2023. "Testing and signal identification for two-sample high-dimensional covariances via multi-level thresholding," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 235(2), pages 1337-1354.
    5. Li, Zhao-Chen & Xie, Chi & Zeng, Zhi-Jian & Wang, Gang-Jin & Zhang, Ting, 2023. "Forecasting global stock market volatilities in an uncertain world," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    6. Zeravan Abdulmuhsen Asaad & Amjad Saber Al-Delawi & Omed Rafiq Fatah & Awaz Mohamed Saleem, 2023. "Oil Exports, Political Issues, and Stock Market Nexus," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 13(1), pages 362-373, January.
    7. Salisu, Afees A. & Shaik, Muneer, 2022. "Islamic Stock indices and COVID-19 pandemic," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 282-293.
    8. Mehmet Ali Balcı & Larissa M. Batrancea & Ömer Akgüller & Lucian Gaban & Mircea-Iosif Rus & Horia Tulai, 2022. "Fractality of Borsa Istanbul during the COVID-19 Pandemic," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(14), pages 1-33, July.
    9. Alam, Md Shabbir & Murshed, Muntasir & Manigandan, Palanisamy & Pachiyappan, Duraisamy & Abduvaxitovna, Shamansurova Zilola, 2023. "Forecasting oil, coal, and natural gas prices in the pre-and post-COVID scenarios: Contextual evidence from India using time series forecasting tools," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Md. Bokhtiar Hasan & Masnun Mahi & Tapan Sarker & Md. Ruhul Amin, 2021. "Spillovers of the COVID-19 Pandemic: Impact on Global Economic Activity, the Stock Market, and the Energy Sector," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(5), pages 1-18, May.
    2. Yilmazkuday, Hakan, 2022. "Coronavirus disease 2019 and the global economy," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 40-46.
    3. Lin, Arthur J. & Chang, Hai Yen & Hsiao, Jung Lieh, 2019. "Does the Baltic Dry Index drive volatility spillovers in the commodities, currency, or stock markets?," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 265-283.
    4. Charalampos Basdekis & Apostolos Christopoulos & Ioannis Katsampoxakis & Vasileios Nastas, 2022. "The Impact of the Ukrainian War on Stock and Energy Markets: A Wavelet Coherence Analysis," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(21), pages 1-15, November.
    5. Ahundjanov, Behzod B. & Akhundjanov, Sherzod B. & Okhunjanov, Botir B., 2021. "Risk perception and oil and gasoline markets under COVID-19," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    6. Jin‐Yu Chen & Xue‐Hong Zhu & Mei‐Rui Zhong, 2021. "Time‐varying effects and structural change of oil price shocks on industrial output: Evidence from China's oil industrial chain," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(3), pages 3460-3472, July.
    7. Aharon, David Y. & Azman Aziz, Mukhriz Izraf & Kallir, Ido, 2023. "Oil price shocks and inflation: A cross-national examination in the ASEAN5+3 countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    8. Yuliya Lovcha & Alejandro Perez-Laborda, 2017. "Structural shocks and dynamic elasticities in a long memory model of the US gasoline retail market," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 53(2), pages 405-422, September.
    9. Dalheimer, Bernhard & Herwartz, Helmut & Lange, Alexander, 2021. "The threat of oil market turmoils to food price stability in Sub-Saharan Africa," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    10. Drachal, Krzysztof, 2021. "Forecasting crude oil real prices with averaging time-varying VAR models," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    11. Qi Shi & Bin Li & Adrian (Wai Kong) Cheung & Richard Chung, 2017. "Augmenting the intertemporal CAPM with inflation: Further evidence from alternative models," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 42(4), pages 653-672, November.
    12. Chen, Long & Petkova, Ralitsa & Zhang, Lu, 2008. "The expected value premium," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(2), pages 269-280, February.
    13. Kumeka, Terver Theophilus & Uzoma-Nwosu, Damian Chidozie & David-Wayas, Maria Onyinye, 2022. "The effects of COVID-19 on the interrelationship among oil prices, stock prices and exchange rates in selected oil exporting economies," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    14. Yudong Wang & Li Liu, 2016. "Crude oil and world stock markets: volatility spillovers, dynamic correlations, and hedging," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 50(4), pages 1481-1509, June.
    15. Valenti, Daniele & Bastianin, Andrea & Manera, Matteo, 2023. "A weekly structural VAR model of the US crude oil market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    16. Gong, Yuting & Li, Kevin X. & Chen, Shu-Ling & Shi, Wenming, 2020. "Contagion risk between the shipping freight and stock markets: Evidence from the recent US-China trade war," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    17. Umar M. Mustapha, 2012. "The Role of Speculation in the Determination of Energy Prices," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 2(4), pages 279-291.
    18. Caporin, Massimiliano & Naeem, Muhammad Abubakr & Arif, Muhammad & Hasan, Mudassar & Vo, Xuan Vinh & Hussain Shahzad, Syed Jawad, 2021. "Asymmetric and time-frequency spillovers among commodities using high-frequency data," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    19. Ling He & Joseph McGarrity, 2005. "A Reexamination of the Wealth Effect and Uncertainty Effect," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 11(4), pages 379-398, November.
    20. Cooper, Michael J. & Gubellini, Stefano, 2011. "The critical role of conditioning information in determining if value is really riskier than growth," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 289-305, March.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F44 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Business Cycles
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • I10 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:30:y:2023:i:1:p:7-13. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/RAEL20 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.