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A Reexamination of the Wealth Effect and Uncertainty Effect

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  • Ling He
  • Joseph McGarrity

Abstract

In an influential article, [Romer, C. “The Great Crash and the Onset of the Great Depression,” Quarterly Journal of Economics, 105, 1990, pp. 597–624.] estimates the magnitudes of the uncertainty and wealth effects. She reports that before and after the Great Depression, the uncertainty effect has a large and statistically significant influence on durable good production, while the wealth effect is negative but negligible. When the authors of this paper change the specification of the model with respect to the amount of time necessary for stock returns to translate into changes in consumption, they reach the exact opposite conclusions that Romer does. Specifically, when the authors allow consumers 12 or more months to alter consumption behavior, rather than Romer's three, stock price uncertainty did not significantly affect the durable goods production before, during, or after the Great Depression. The authors also find that stock market returns from the previous year have a positive and statistically significant impact on the durable goods production, indicating the importance of the wealth effect. Copyright International Atlantic Economic Society 2005

Suggested Citation

  • Ling He & Joseph McGarrity, 2005. "A Reexamination of the Wealth Effect and Uncertainty Effect," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 11(4), pages 379-398, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:iaecre:v:11:y:2005:i:4:p:379-398:10.1007/s11294-005-2276-6
    DOI: 10.1007/s11294-005-2276-6
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. repec:bla:jfinan:v:53:y:1998:i:6:p:2243-2257 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Christina D. Romer, 1990. "The Great Crash and the Onset of the Great Depression," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 105(3), pages 597-624.
    3. Fama, Eugene F, 1981. "Stock Returns, Real Activity, Inflation, and Money," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(4), pages 545-565, September.
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    3. Moawia Alghalith & Tracy Polius, 2013. "The Relationship between the Stock Market and Consumption," Economic Papers, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 32(1), pages 135-138, March.

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    • D10 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - General

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