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Does unauthorized school absenteeism accelerates the dropout decision? - Evidence from a Bayesian duration model

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  • Sofie J. Cabus
  • Kristof De Witte

Abstract

School absenteeism (or truancy) may be a signal of an ongoing process of student attrition that eventually leads to early school leaving. This article estimates how unauthorized school absenteeism accelerates the dropout decision. In particular, the timing of the dropout decision of truants is compared with the timing of regular school attendees using administrative data with insights into wrongly specified truancy spells. We correct in a Bayesian duration model for issues on data uncertainty and show that only a Bayesian structure on the data yields insightful and consistent results. The results indicate that the risk of truants to leave school early before the end of the compulsory education age increases with as much as 37.4%.

Suggested Citation

  • Sofie J. Cabus & Kristof De Witte, 2015. "Does unauthorized school absenteeism accelerates the dropout decision? - Evidence from a Bayesian duration model," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(4), pages 266-271, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:22:y:2015:i:4:p:266-271
    DOI: 10.1080/13504851.2014.937031
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    Cited by:

    1. Santa Lázaro & Belén Urosa & Rosalía Mota & Eva Rubio, 2020. "Primary Education Truancy and School Performance in Social Exclusion Settings: The Case of Students in Cañada Real Galiana," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(20), pages 1-27, October.
    2. Enrico Ripamonti & Stefano Barberis, 2018. "The Effect of Cultural Capital on High School Dropout: An Investigation in the Italian Provinces," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 139(3), pages 1257-1279, October.
    3. Tassew Woldehanna & Kefyalew Endale & Joan Hamory & Sarah Baird, 2021. "Absenteeism, Dropout, and On-Time School Completion of Vulnerable Primary School Students in Ethiopia: Exploring the Role of Adolescent Decision-Making Power in the Household, Exposure to Violence, an," The European Journal of Development Research, Palgrave Macmillan;European Association of Development Research and Training Institutes (EADI), vol. 33(5), pages 1349-1389, October.
    4. Skedgell, Kyleigh & Kearney, Christopher A., 2018. "Predictors of school absenteeism severity at multiple levels: A classification and regression tree analysis," Children and Youth Services Review, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 236-245.
    5. Brent, Daniel A. & Ren, Yongwang & Wrenn, Douglas H., 2024. "Flood Risk and Property Market," 2024 Annual Meeting, July 28-30, New Orleans, LA 343651, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.

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