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Hedge funds, exchange rates and causality: evidence from Thailand and Malaysia

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  • W. N. W. Azman-Saini
  • Evan Lau
  • Zulkefly Abdul Karim

Abstract

This article contributes to the debate on hedge funds and exchange rates in Thailand and Malaysia. It provides the first empirical evidence on causal relation between hedge funds and exchange rates. Using a new Granger noncausality procedure proposed by Toda and Yamamoto (1995) and monthly data for the January 1994 to April 2002 period, two important findings emerge. First, hedge funds lead Thai baht during the 1997 crisis. Second, there is a bidirectional causality between hedge funds and Malaysian ringgit for the pre-crisis period. In all other cases, no causal relation can be established.

Suggested Citation

  • W. N. W. Azman-Saini & Evan Lau & Zulkefly Abdul Karim, 2010. "Hedge funds, exchange rates and causality: evidence from Thailand and Malaysia," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(4), pages 393-397.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:17:y:2010:i:4:p:393-397
    DOI: 10.1080/13504850701748883
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    1. repec:bla:intfin:v:4:y:2001:i:2:p:161-87 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Zapata, Hector O & Rambaldi, Alicia N, 1997. "Monte Carlo Evidence on Cointegration and Causation," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 59(2), pages 285-298, May.
    3. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    4. Fung, William & Hsieh, David A., 2000. "Measuring the market impact of hedge funds," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 1-36, May.
    5. Mrs. Anne C Jansen & Mr. Donald J Mathieson & Mr. Barry J. Eichengreen & Ms. Laura E. Kodres & Mr. Bankim Chadha & Mr. Sunil Sharma, 1998. "Hedge Funds and Financial Market Dynamics," IMF Occasional Papers 1998/009, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Toda, Hiro Y. & Yamamoto, Taku, 1995. "Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1-2), pages 225-250.
    7. Richard A. Brealey & Evi Kaplanis, 2001. "Hedge Funds and Financial Stability: An Analysis of their Factor Exposures," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 4(2), pages 161-187.
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    Cited by:

    1. Li, Kui-Wai, 2011. "Identifying the Signs of Currency Speculation in Hong Kong's Linked exchange Rate," MPRA Paper 35279, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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