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Dynamic price integration in the global gold market

Author

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  • Chang, Chia-Lin
  • Della Chang, Jui-Chuan
  • Huang, Yi-Wei

Abstract

This paper examines the inter-relationships among gold prices in five global gold markets, namely London, New York, Japan, Hong Kong (since 1 July 1997, a Special Administrative Region (SAR) of China), and Taiwan. We investigate the linkages between Taiwan and the other global gold markets to provide insights for useful investment strategies. The augmenting level-VAR models proposed by Toda and Yamamoto (1995) show that the empirical results find bi-directional causality between the London and New York gold markets, and uni-directional causality from New York to the other markets. In this sense, the New York market has gained a leading role in affecting global gold markets. This empirical finding serves as a predictor for the gold price in global markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Chang, Chia-Lin & Della Chang, Jui-Chuan & Huang, Yi-Wei, 2013. "Dynamic price integration in the global gold market," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 227-235.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecofin:v:26:y:2013:i:c:p:227-235
    DOI: 10.1016/j.najef.2013.02.002
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    1. Kanjilal, Kakali & Ghosh, Sajal, 2017. "Dynamics of crude oil and gold price post 2008 global financial crisis – New evidence from threshold vector error-correction model," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 358-365.
    2. Marei Elbadri & Eralp Bektaş, 2022. "Dynamic relationship among the bank stability, oil, and gold prices: Evidence from the Islamic banks operating in the Gulf Cooperation Council countries," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(2), pages 2153-2168, April.
    3. Chia-Lin Chang & Allen, David & McAleer, Michael, 2013. "Recent developments in financial economics and econometrics: An overview," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 217-226.
    4. Golitsis, Petros & Gkasis, Pavlos & Bellos, Sotirios K., 2022. "Dynamic spillovers and linkages between gold, crude oil, S&P 500, and other economic and financial variables. Evidence from the USA," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    5. Zhu, Xuehong & Zhang, Shishi & Ding, Qian, 2024. "Does extreme climate change drive the connectedness among global gold markets? Evidence from TVP-VAR and causality-in-quantiles techniques," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    6. Guo Jianhua & Xu Songjin, 2014. "The Relationship and Spillover Effects between Chinese and Foreign Gold Markets an Empirical Study based on Var-Mvgarch-Bekk Model," Journal of Empirical Economics, Research Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 3(1), pages 25-30.
    7. Zhang, Chuanguo & Liu, Feng & Yu, Danlin, 2018. "Dynamic jumps in global oil price and its impacts on China's bulk commodities," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 297-306.
    8. Wang, Gang-Jin & Xie, Chi & Jiang, Zhi-Qiang & Stanley, H. Eugene, 2016. "Extreme risk spillover effects in world gold markets and the global financial crisis," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 55-77.
    9. Antunes, João Marques & Fuinhas, José Alberto & Marques, António Cardoso, 2014. "Modelização VAR da volatilidade dos preços do ouro e dos índices dos mercados financeiros [Modelling the volatility of gold prices and financial stock indexes: a VAR approach]," MPRA Paper 57017, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Lin, Min & Wang, Gang-Jin & Xie, Chi & Stanley, H. Eugene, 2018. "Cross-correlations and influence in world gold markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 490(C), pages 504-512.
    11. Ntim, Collins G. & English, John & Nwachukwu, Jacinta & Wang, Yan, 2015. "On the efficiency of the global gold markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 218-236.
    12. P.K. Mishra, 2014. "Gold Price and Capital Market Movement in India: The Toda–Yamamoto Approach," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 15(1), pages 37-45, March.
    13. Zhang, Guangyong & Jiang, Le & Tian, Lixin & Fu, Min, 2021. "Analysis of the gold fixing price fluctuation in different times based on the directed weighted networks," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    14. Jose Arreola Hernandez & Mazin A.M. Al Janabi, 2020. "Forecasting of dependence, market, and investment risks of a global index portfolio," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(3), pages 512-532, April.
    15. Sobti, Neharika & Sehgal, Sanjay & Ilango, Balakrishnan, 2021. "How do macroeconomic news surprises affect round-the-clock price discovery of gold?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    16. Katarzyna Mamcarz, 2019. "Gold Market and Selected Stock Markets–Granger Causality Analysis," Springer Proceedings in Business and Economics, in: Waldemar Tarczyński & Kesra Nermend (ed.), Effective Investments on Capital Markets, chapter 0, pages 405-422, Springer.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Global gold market; Dynamic price integration; Toda–Yamamoto procedure; Augmenting level-VAR models;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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