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Point and interval nowcasts of the Euro area IPI

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  • Laurent Ferrara

Abstract

Opinion surveys are an important element in the analysis of the short-term economic situation because of the timeliness and nature of the information they convey. The aim of this article is to propose a procedure to nowcast in real-time the fluctuations of the industrial production indices (IPI) for the aggregated euro area, by incorporating the information contained in the industrial opinion surveys. We present a pooling procedure, each nowcasted value stemming from a calibration model. The confidence intervals for IPI nowcasts are computed by bootstrap.

Suggested Citation

  • Laurent Ferrara, 2007. "Point and interval nowcasts of the Euro area IPI," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(2), pages 115-120.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:14:y:2007:i:2:p:115-120
    DOI: 10.1080/13504850500425998
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ken Holden & John Thompson, 1997. "Combining forecasts, encompassing and the properties of UK macroeconomic forecasts," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(11), pages 1447-1458.
    2. Lorenzo Pascual & Juan Romo & Esther Ruiz, 2004. "Bootstrap predictive inference for ARIMA processes," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(4), pages 449-465, July.
    3. Clemen, Robert T., 1989. "Combining forecasts: A review and annotated bibliography," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 5(4), pages 559-583.
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    Cited by:

    1. Laurent Ferrara & Cl�ment Marsilli, 2013. "Financial variables as leading indicators of GDP growth: Evidence from a MIDAS approach during the Great Recession," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(3), pages 233-237, February.
    2. Laurent Ferrara & Dominique Guégan, 2008. "Business surveys modelling with Seasonal-Cyclical Long Memory models," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 3(29), pages 1-10.
    3. Laurent Ferrara & Thomas Raffinot, 2008. "A non-parametric method to nowcast the Euro Area IPI," Post-Print halshs-00275769, HAL.
    4. Laurent Ferrara & Dominique Guegan, 2008. "Business surveys modelling with Seasonal-Cyclical Long Memory models," Post-Print halshs-00283710, HAL.
    5. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:3:y:2008:i:29:p:1-10 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Laurent Ferrara & Dominique Guegan, 2008. "Business surveys modelling with Seasonal-Cyclical Long Memory models," Post-Print halshs-00277379, HAL.
    7. Ferrara, Laurent, 2006. "A real-time recession indicator for the Euro area," MPRA Paper 4042, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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