IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/amerec/v48y2004i2p67-73.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Monthly Effect in Stock Returns and Conditional Heteroscedasticity

Author

Listed:
  • Menahem Rosenberg

Abstract

This paper analyzes the end-of-month (or monthly) effect in stock returns using a conditional GARCH variance model. Many researchers who have studied seasonal anomalies in stock returns have tried to explain these phenomena by looking at the stock market in isolation. In this paper, we relate the end-of-month effect to macroeconomic variables. Furthermore, we improve the efficiency of our statistical tests by including heteroscedasticity in the model. As a result, we present evidence that there is indeed an end-of-month effect distinct from the Mondays in the end-of-month effect documented by previous researchers. We show a link between this end-of-month effect and the economic business cycle, and present evidence that the end-of-month anomaly exists only during business cycle expansions; this anomaly disappears during business cycle contractions.

Suggested Citation

  • Menahem Rosenberg, 2004. "The Monthly Effect in Stock Returns and Conditional Heteroscedasticity," The American Economist, Sage Publications, vol. 48(2), pages 67-73, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:amerec:v:48:y:2004:i:2:p:67-73
    DOI: 10.1177/056943450404800206
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/056943450404800206
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1177/056943450404800206?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Wang, Ko & Li, Yuming & Erickson, John, 1997. "A New Look at the Monday Effect," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(5), pages 2171-2186, December.
    2. Josef Lakonishok, Seymour Smidt, 1988. "Are Seasonal Anomalies Real? A Ninety-Year Perspective," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(4), pages 403-425.
    3. Rozeff, Michael S. & Kinney, William Jr., 1976. "Capital market seasonality: The case of stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 379-402, October.
    4. French, Kenneth R. & Schwert, G. William & Stambaugh, Robert F., 1987. "Expected stock returns and volatility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 3-29, September.
    5. Jeffrey Jaffe & R. Westerfield, "undated". "The Week-End Effect in Common Stock Returns: The International Evidence," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 3-85, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
    6. Jaffe, Jeffrey F & Westerfield, Randolph, 1985. "The Week-End Effect in Common Stock Returns: The International Evidence," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(2), pages 433-454, June.
    7. French, Kenneth R., 1980. "Stock returns and the weekend effect," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 55-69, March.
    8. Connolly, Robert A., 1989. "An Examination of the Robustness of the Weekend Effect," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 24(2), pages 133-169, June.
    9. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
    10. Jeffrey Jaffe & R. Westerfield, "undated". "The Week-End Effect in Common Stock Returns: The International Evidence," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 03-85, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
    11. Engle, Robert F. & Mustafa, Chowdhury, 1992. "Implied ARCH models from options prices," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 289-311.
    12. Ariel, Robert A., 1987. "A monthly effect in stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 161-174, March.
    13. Jaffe, Jeffrey F. & Westerfield, Randolph & Ma, Christopher, 1989. "A twist on the Monday effect in stock prices: Evidence from the U.S. and foreign stock markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(4-5), pages 641-650, September.
    14. Bollerslev, Tim & Chou, Ray Y. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1992. "ARCH modeling in finance : A review of the theory and empirical evidence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 5-59.
    15. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Lobão, Júlio, 2019. "Seasonal anomalies in the market for American depository receipts," Journal of Economics, Finance and Administrative Science, Universidad ESAN, vol. 24(48), pages 241-265.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Chowdhury, Anup & Uddin, Moshfique & Anderson, Keith, 2022. "Trading behaviour and market sentiment: Firm-level evidence from an emerging Islamic market," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    2. Mostafa Saidur Rahim Khan & Naheed Rabbani, 2019. "Market Conditions and Calendar Anomalies in Japanese Stock Returns," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 26(2), pages 187-209, June.
    3. Kiymaz, Halil & Berument, Hakan, 2003. "The day of the week effect on stock market volatility and volume: International evidence," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 363-380.
    4. Mehmet Dicle & John Levendis, 2014. "The day-of-the-week effect revisited: international evidence," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 38(3), pages 407-437, July.
    5. Sullivan, Ryan & Timmermann, Allan & White, Halbert, 2001. "Dangers of data mining: The case of calendar effects in stock returns," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 249-286, November.
    6. Sullivan, Ryan & Timmermann, Allan & White, Halbert, 1998. "The dangers of data-driven inference: the case of calender effects in stock returns," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 119142, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    7. Dumitriu, Ramona & Stefanescu, Razvan, 2013. "DOW effects in returns and in volatility of stock markets during quiet and turbulent times," MPRA Paper 47218, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 02 Apr 2013.
    8. Boynton, Wentworth & Oppenheimer, Henry R. & Reid, Sean F., 2009. "Japanese day-of-the-week return patterns: New results," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 1-12.
    9. Terence Mills & J. Andrew Coutts, 1995. "Calendar effects in the London Stock Exchange FT-SE indices," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(1), pages 79-93.
    10. Chen, Gongmeng & Kwok, Chuck C. Y. & Rui, Oliver M., 2001. "The day-of-the-week regularity in the stock markets of China," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 139-163, April.
    11. Sumra Abbas & Attiya Yasmin Javid, 2015. "The Day-of-the-Week Anomaly in Market Returns, Volume and Volatility in SAARC Countries," PIDE-Working Papers 2015:129, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics.
    12. Meher Shiva Tadepalli & Ravi Kumar Jain, 2018. "Persistence of calendar anomalies: insights and perspectives from literature," American Journal of Business, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 33(1/2), pages 18-60, May.
    13. Adam Zaremba & Jacob Koby Shemer, 2018. "Price-Based Investment Strategies," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-3-319-91530-2, June.
    14. Subadar Agathee Ushad, 2009. "Seasonality, returns and volatility on the Stock Exchange of Mauritius," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(5), pages 545-548.
    15. Brailsford, Timothy J. & Faff, Robert W., 1996. "An evaluation of volatility forecasting techniques," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 419-438, April.
    16. Khalil Jebran & Shihua Chen, 2017. "Examining anomalies in Islamic equity market of Pakistan," Journal of Sustainable Finance & Investment, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(3), pages 275-289, July.
    17. Paul Alagidede & Theodore Panagiotidis, 2006. "Calendar Anomalies in an Emerging African Market: Evidence from the Ghana Stock Exchange," Discussion Paper Series 2006_13, Department of Economics, Loughborough University, revised Jun 2006.
    18. Diego Winkelried & Luis A. Iberico, 2018. "Calendar effects in Latin American stock markets," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 54(3), pages 1215-1235, May.
    19. Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Cunado, Juncal & de Gracia, Fernando Perez, 2013. "Salient features of dependence in daily US stock market indices," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 392(15), pages 3198-3212.
    20. Kim, Jae H. & Shamsuddin, Abul, 2023. "Stock market anomalies: An extreme bounds analysis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:amerec:v:48:y:2004:i:2:p:67-73. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SAGE Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://journals.sagepub.com/home/aex .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.