IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/apeclt/v10y2003i6p373-376.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Short-run and long-run interaction between inflation and unemployment in the USA

Author

Listed:
  • Antonio Ribba

Abstract

The aim of this study is to investigate both the short-run and long-run relationship between inflation and unemployment characterizing the US economy in the last 30 years. To this end a cointegrated structural VAR vs built. Since unemployment does not cause inflation at frequency zero a recursive structure, with inflation ordered first, allows the identification of a permanent and a transitory shock (cf. Ribba, Economics Letters 56, pp. 253-6, 1997). The main conclusions of the investigation are that: (i) in the short run, the existence of a tradeoff induced by the transitory shock is confirmed; (ii) in the long run, the two variables move one-for-one in the same direction driven by a permanent supply shock.

Suggested Citation

  • Antonio Ribba, 2003. "Short-run and long-run interaction between inflation and unemployment in the USA," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(6), pages 373-376.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:10:y:2003:i:6:p:373-376
    DOI: 10.1080/1350485032000081983
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.informaworld.com/openurl?genre=article&doi=10.1080/1350485032000081983&magic=repec&7C&7C8674ECAB8BB840C6AD35DC6213A474B5
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1080/1350485032000081983?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mankiw, N Gregory, 2001. "The Inexorable and Mysterious Tradeoff between Inflation and Unemployment," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 111(471), pages 45-61, May.
    2. Robert G. King & Mark W. Watson, 1997. "Testing long-run neutrality," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Sum, pages 69-101.
    3. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
    4. Laurence Ball, 1999. "Aggregate demand and Long-Run Unemployment," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 30(2), pages 189-252.
    5. King, Robert G. & Plosser, Charles I. & Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 1991. "Stochastic Trends and Economic Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(4), pages 819-840, September.
    6. Clive, W.J. & Lin, Jin-Lung, 1995. "Causality in the Long Run," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(3), pages 530-536, June.
    7. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-1580, November.
    8. Ribba, Antonio, 1997. "A note on the equivalence of long-run and short-run identifying restrictions in cointegrated systems," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 56(3), pages 273-276, November.
    9. Fisher, Lance A. & Huh, Hyeon-seung, 1999. "Weak exogeneity and long-run and contemporaneous identifying restrictions in VEC models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 63(2), pages 159-165, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Brüggemann, Ralf, 2006. "Finite sample properties of impulse response intervals in SVECMs with long-run identifying restrictions," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2006-021, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    2. Antonio Ribba, 2017. "What Drives US Inflation and Unemployment in the Long Run?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 37(2), pages 765-777.
    3. repec:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2006-021 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Antonio Ribba, 2015. "What Drives US Inflation and Unemployment in the Long Run?," Department of Economics 0053, University of Modena and Reggio E., Faculty of Economics "Marco Biagi".
    5. Antonio Ribba, 2016. "Productivity Growth Shocks and Unemployment in the Postwar US Economy," Department of Economics 0077, University of Modena and Reggio E., Faculty of Economics "Marco Biagi".
    6. Mehmet Balcilar & Shinhye Chang & Rangan Gupta & Stephen M. Miller, 2018. "The relationship between the inflation rate and inequality across U.S. states: a semiparametric approach," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 52(5), pages 2413-2425, September.
    7. Sima Siami‐Namini & Conrad Lyford & A. Alexandre Trindade, 2020. "The Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks on Income Inequality Across U.S. States," Economic Papers, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 39(3), pages 204-221, September.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ribba, Antonio, 2007. "Permanent disinflationary effects on unemployment in a small open economy: Italy 1979-1995," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 66-81, January.
    2. Fisher, Lance A. & Huh, Hyeon-seung & Tallman, Ellis W., 2003. "Permanent income and transitory variation in investment and output," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 149-168, June.
    3. Fisher, Lance A. & Huh, Hyeon-seung, 1999. "Weak exogeneity and long-run and contemporaneous identifying restrictions in VEC models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 63(2), pages 159-165, May.
    4. Antonio Ribba, 2011. "On some neglected implications of the Fisher effect," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 40(2), pages 451-470, April.
    5. Swanson, Norman R., 1998. "Money and output viewed through a rolling window," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 455-474, May.
    6. Anthony Garratt & Kevin Lee & M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin, 2003. "A Long run structural macroeconometric model of the UK," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 113(487), pages 412-455, April.
    7. Fisher, Lance A. & Huh, Hyeon-Seung & Summers, Peter M., 2000. "Structural Identification of Permanent Shocks in VEC Models: A Generalization," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 53-68, January.
    8. Kenneth F. Wallis & Jan P. A. M. Jacobs, 2005. "Comparing SVARs and SEMs: two models of the UK economy," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(2), pages 209-228.
    9. Ericsson, Neil R & Hendry, David F & Mizon, Grayham E, 1998. "Exogeneity, Cointegration, and Economic Policy Analysis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(4), pages 370-387, October.
    10. S Shahnawaz, 2004. "Market Power and Unites States Sectoral Textile Imports," Economic Issues Journal Articles, Economic Issues, vol. 9(2), pages 69-84, September.
    11. Pedro José Pérez Vázquez, 2003. "Fuentes de variabilidad en las principales economías occidentales," Investigaciones Economicas, Fundación SEPI, vol. 27(3), pages 565-591, September.
    12. Becker, Torbjorn, 1997. "An investigation of Ricardian equivalence in a common trends model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 405-431, August.
    13. Binder, Michael & Hsiao, Cheng & Pesaran, M. Hashem, 2005. "Estimation And Inference In Short Panel Vector Autoregressions With Unit Roots And Cointegration," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(4), pages 795-837, August.
    14. Cochrane, John H., 1994. "Shocks," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 295-364, December.
    15. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 1996. "Cointegration and speed of convergence to equilibrium," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1-2), pages 117-143.
    16. Ribba, Antonio, 1997. "A note on the equivalence of long-run and short-run identifying restrictions in cointegrated systems," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 56(3), pages 273-276, November.
    17. Dennis L. Hoffman & Robert H. Rasche, 1997. "STLS/US-VECM6.1: a vector error-correction forecasting model of the U. S. economy," Working Papers 1997-008, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    18. Philippe Andrade & Catherine Bruneau & Stephane Gregoir, 2000. "Testing for the Cointegration Rank when Some Cointegrating Directions are Shifting," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1605, Econometric Society.
    19. Davidson, James, 1998. "Structural relations, cointegration and identification: some simple results and their application," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 87-113, August.
    20. Norman J. Morin, 2006. "Likelihood ratio tests on cointegrating vectors, disequilibrium adjustment vectors, and their orthogonal complements," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2006-21, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:10:y:2003:i:6:p:373-376. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/RAEL20 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.