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Tax revenues estimation and forecast for state tax audit

Author

Listed:
  • Madina Serikova

    (L. N. Gumilyov Eurasian National University, Kazakhstan)

  • Lyazzat Sembiyeva

    (L. N. Gumilyov Eurasian National University, Kazakhstan)

  • Kuralay Balginova

    (Baishev University, Kazakhstan)

  • Gulzhan Alina

    (Kazakh University of Economy, Finance and International Trade, Kazakhstan)

  • Aliya Shakharova

    (L. N. Gumilyov Eurasian National University, Kazakhstan)

  • Anar Kurmanalina

    (Karaganda Economic University of Kazpotrebsoyuz, Kazakhstan)

Abstract

The forecast model analysis of dependence of tax revenues of the state budget on macroeconomic indicators is presented. For example, the hypothesis of the impact of total retail trade on domestic taxes on goods, works and services through correlation and regression analysis is studied. Moreover, the influence of nominal income per capita, the volume of industrial products (goods and services), and investments in fixed capital on income tax was assessed. In the course of the study, the indicator of crude oil and natural gas production was selected and its impact on tax revenues from international trade and foreign operations of the country was analyzed. Thus, the importance of methods of forecasting tax revenues in the context of state tax audit and budget planning is substantiated.

Suggested Citation

  • Madina Serikova & Lyazzat Sembiyeva & Kuralay Balginova & Gulzhan Alina & Aliya Shakharova & Anar Kurmanalina, 2020. "Tax revenues estimation and forecast for state tax audit," Entrepreneurship and Sustainability Issues, VsI Entrepreneurship and Sustainability Center, vol. 7(3), pages 2419-2435, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:ssi:jouesi:v:7:y:2020:i:3:p:2419-2435
    DOI: 10.9770/jesi.2020.7.3(64)
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ball, R & Foster, G, 1982. "Corporate Financial-Reporting - A Methodological Review Of Empirical-Research," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20, pages 161-234.
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    3. Krol, Robert, 2013. "Evaluating state revenue forecasting under a flexible loss function," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 282-289.
    4. Gatot Sasongko & Andrian Dolfriandra Huruta & Anita Wardani, 2019. "Does the Wagner's Law exist in a strategic national area? An evidence from Kedungsepur - Indonesia," Insights into Regional Development, VsI Entrepreneurship and Sustainability Center, vol. 1(2), pages 99-117, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Genifera Banica & Maria Dana Banica, 2024. "The Results of the Fiscal Control Activity in the Member States of the European Union in the field of VAT," Economic Alternatives, University of National and World Economy, Sofia, Bulgaria, issue 4, pages 701-721, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    tax; state budget; tax audit; tax revenues; income tax; modeling; planning; forecasting; macroeconomic indicators; scenario method;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H25 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Business Taxes and Subsidies
    • H30 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - General
    • H32 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - Firm
    • O23 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - Fiscal and Monetary Policy in Development

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