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Wie man die Auswirkungen eines Gasembargos berechnen könnte
[How to Compute the Economic Impact of a Sudden Stop of Gas Imports from Russia]

Author

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  • Tom Krebs

    (Universität Mannheim)

Abstract

In this essay, I outline a method to compute the economic impact of a sudden stop of natural gas imports from Russia. First, I estimate the reduction in the short-run supply of natural gas for the economy and the industry sector. Second, I use model simulations to analyse the effect of a sudden import stop on the industry sectors using natural gas and the whole economy. The model should take into account the limited short-run substitution possibilities of the industry sectors using natural gas (chemical industry) and the value chain linkages of these sectors with all other sectors of the economy. The recent analysis by Bachmann et al. (2022) does not satisfy these two methodological conditions and the results should be interpreted accordingly.

Suggested Citation

  • Tom Krebs, 2022. "Wie man die Auswirkungen eines Gasembargos berechnen könnte [How to Compute the Economic Impact of a Sudden Stop of Gas Imports from Russia]," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 102(4), pages 256-258, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:wirtsc:v:102:y:2022:i:4:d:10.1007_s10273-022-3152-1
    DOI: 10.1007/s10273-022-3152-1
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Daron Acemoglu & Vasco M. Carvalho & Asuman Ozdaglar & Alireza Tahbaz‐Salehi, 2012. "The Network Origins of Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 80(5), pages 1977-2016, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. François Geerolf, 2022. "The “Baqaee-Farhi approach” and a russian gas embargo," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(4), pages 143-165.
    2. Michael Hüther, 2022. "Das Problem des subjektiven Werturteils [The Problem of Subjective Value Judgment]," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 102(4), pages 273-278, April.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    O13; P13; Q43;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products
    • P13 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Capitalist Economies - - - Cooperative Enterprises
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

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