IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/waterr/v37y2023i2d10.1007_s11269-022-03396-7.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Attribution Analysis of Streamflow Changes Based on Large-scale Hydrological Modeling with Uncertainties

Author

Listed:
  • Manlin Wang

    (Geological Survey of Jiangsu Province
    Key Laboratory of Earth Fissures Geological Disaster, Ministry of Natural Resources)

  • Yu Zhang

    (Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute)

  • Yan Lu

    (Geological Survey of Jiangsu Province
    Key Laboratory of Earth Fissures Geological Disaster, Ministry of Natural Resources)

  • Li Gao

    (Geological Survey of Jiangsu Province
    Key Laboratory of Earth Fissures Geological Disaster, Ministry of Natural Resources)

  • Leizhi Wang

    (Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute)

Abstract

Attribution analysis is widely used to assess the impacts of environmental change on water resources. However, the chain of uncertainty involved is often not given sufficient attention, which can lead to inaccurate assessments and poor responses. This study aims to build a framework for attribution analysis of streamflow changes considering uncertainties. Under this framework, a large-scale Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model is established and calibrated using streamflow data collected from key stations, with model parameter posterior distributions obtained from the Differential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis (DREAM) algorithm. A multi-route attribution analysis to attribute streamflow change to the influence of driving factors is performed. The developed methodology is applied to a case study of the Upper Yangtze River Basin (UYRB) in China. Results reveal that: (1) Streamflow decreases significantly in the UYRB with varying characteristics at small scale. (2) Precipitation plays the most dominate role in driving streamflow changes with the largest uncertainty, while other driving factors behave differently in various river basins. (3) Changes in precipitation, maximum temperature, wind speed and land use/ cover change (LUCC) tend to decrease streamflow, while changes in minimum temperature and relative humidity tend to increase streamflow in the UYRB. These findings can help enhance the understanding of the influence of climate change and human activities on streamflow, and provide further insights into the adaptive water resources management.

Suggested Citation

  • Manlin Wang & Yu Zhang & Yan Lu & Li Gao & Leizhi Wang, 2023. "Attribution Analysis of Streamflow Changes Based on Large-scale Hydrological Modeling with Uncertainties," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 37(2), pages 713-730, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:37:y:2023:i:2:d:10.1007_s11269-022-03396-7
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-022-03396-7
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11269-022-03396-7
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11269-022-03396-7?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. T. P. Barnett & J. C. Adam & D. P. Lettenmaier, 2005. "Potential impacts of a warming climate on water availability in snow-dominated regions," Nature, Nature, vol. 438(7066), pages 303-309, November.
    2. Xinyu Wan & Lijuan Hua & Shutan Yang & Hoshin V. Gupta & Ping’an Zhong, 2018. "Evaluating the Impacts of a Large-Scale Multi-Reservoir System on Flooding: Case of the Huai River in China," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 32(3), pages 1013-1033, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Shanhu Jiang & Yongwei Zhu & Liliang Ren & Denghua Yan & Ying Liu & Hao Cui & Menghao Wang & Chong-Yu Xu, 2023. "A Complementary Streamflow Attribution Framework Coupled Climate, Vegetation and Water Withdrawal," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 37(12), pages 4807-4822, September.
    2. Akanksha Balha & Amit Singh & Suneel Pandey & Reetesh Kumar & Javed Mallick & Chander Kumar Singh, 2023. "Assessing the Impact of Land-Use Dynamics to Predict the Changes in Hydrological Variables Using Effective Impervious Area (EIA)," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 37(10), pages 3999-4014, August.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Molini, A. & Talkner, P. & Katul, G.G. & Porporato, A., 2011. "First passage time statistics of Brownian motion with purely time dependent drift and diffusion," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 390(11), pages 1841-1852.
    2. Xiuchen Wu & Hongyan Liu & Dali Guo & Oleg A Anenkhonov & Natalya K Badmaeva & Denis V Sandanov, 2012. "Growth Decline Linked to Warming-Induced Water Limitation in Hemi-Boreal Forests," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 7(8), pages 1-12, August.
    3. Hengzhou Xu & Chuanrong Zhang & Weidong Li & Wenjing Zhang & Hongchun Yin, 2018. "Economic growth and carbon emission in China:a spatial econometric Kuznets curve?," Zbornik radova Ekonomskog fakulteta u Rijeci/Proceedings of Rijeka Faculty of Economics, University of Rijeka, Faculty of Economics and Business, vol. 36(1), pages 11-28.
    4. S . K. Oni & F. Mieres & M. N. Futter & H. Laudon, 2017. "Soil temperature responses to climate change along a gradient of upland–riparian transect in boreal forest," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 143(1), pages 27-41, July.
    5. Dalei Hao & Gautam Bisht & Hailong Wang & Donghui Xu & Huilin Huang & Yun Qian & L. Ruby Leung, 2023. "A cleaner snow future mitigates Northern Hemisphere snowpack loss from warming," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-10, December.
    6. Diana R. Gergel & Bart Nijssen & John T. Abatzoglou & Dennis P. Lettenmaier & Matt R. Stumbaugh, 2017. "Effects of climate change on snowpack and fire potential in the western USA," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 141(2), pages 287-299, March.
    7. Alvaro Calzadilla & Katrin Rehdanz & Richard Betts & Pete Falloon & Andy Wiltshire & Richard Tol, 2013. "Climate change impacts on global agriculture," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 120(1), pages 357-374, September.
    8. Leiwen Jiang & Karen Hardee, 2011. "How do Recent Population Trends Matter to Climate Change?," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 30(2), pages 287-312, April.
    9. Schaefli, Bettina & Manso, Pedro & Fischer, Mauro & Huss, Matthias & Farinotti, Daniel, 2017. "The role of glacier retreat for Swiss hydropower production," Earth Arxiv 7z96d, Center for Open Science.
    10. Haiyan Fang & Zemeng Fan, 2021. "Impacts of climate and land use changes on water and sediment yields for the black soil region, northeastern China," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 23(4), pages 6259-6278, April.
    11. Hanjra, Munir A. & Qureshi, M. Ejaz, 2010. "Global water crisis and future food security in an era of climate change," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(5), pages 365-377, October.
    12. Chen, Zi-yue & Huang, Zhen-hai & Nie, Pu-yan, 2018. "Industrial characteristics and consumption efficiency from a nexus perspective – Based on Anhui’s Empirical Statistics," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 281-290.
    13. R. R. McCrary & L. O. Mearns & M. R. Abel & S. Biner & M. S. Bukovsky, 2022. "Projections of North American snow from NA-CORDEX and their uncertainties, with a focus on model resolution," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 170(3), pages 1-25, February.
    14. Donna, Javier & Espin-Sanchez, Jose, 2014. "The Illiquidity of Water Markets," MPRA Paper 55078, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Xiaofeng Ren & Erwen Xu & C. Ken Smith & Michael Vrahnakis & Wenmao Jing & Weijun Zhao & Rongxin Wang & Xin Jia & Chunming Yan & Ruiming Liu, 2024. "Changes in Surface Runoff and Temporal Dispersion in a Restored Montane Watershed on the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau," Land, MDPI, vol. 13(5), pages 1-22, April.
    16. Donna, Javier D. & Espin-Sanchez, Jose, 2018. "Are Water Markets Liquid? Evidence from Southeastern Spain," MPRA Paper 117032, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Wu, Hao & Xu, Min & Peng, Zhuoyue & Chen, Xiaoping, 2022. "Quantifying the potential impacts of meltwater on cotton yields in the Tarim River Basin, Central Asia," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 269(C).
    18. Shakil Ahmad Romshoo & Jasia Bashir & Irfan Rashid, 2020. "Twenty-first century-end climate scenario of Jammu and Kashmir Himalaya, India, using ensemble climate models," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 162(3), pages 1473-1491, October.
    19. Muhammad Arfan & Jewell Lund & Daniyal Hassan & Maaz Saleem & Aftab Ahmad, 2019. "Assessment of Spatial and Temporal Flow Variability of the Indus River," Resources, MDPI, vol. 8(2), pages 1-17, May.
    20. Erickson, Adam & Nitschke, Craig & Coops, Nicholas & Cumming, Steven & Stenhouse, Gordon, 2015. "Past-century decline in forest regeneration potential across a latitudinal and elevational gradient in Canada," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 313(C), pages 94-102.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:37:y:2023:i:2:d:10.1007_s11269-022-03396-7. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.