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Attribution Analysis of Streamflow Changes Based on Large-scale Hydrological Modeling with Uncertainties

Author

Listed:
  • Manlin Wang

    (Geological Survey of Jiangsu Province
    Key Laboratory of Earth Fissures Geological Disaster, Ministry of Natural Resources)

  • Yu Zhang

    (Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute)

  • Yan Lu

    (Geological Survey of Jiangsu Province
    Key Laboratory of Earth Fissures Geological Disaster, Ministry of Natural Resources)

  • Li Gao

    (Geological Survey of Jiangsu Province
    Key Laboratory of Earth Fissures Geological Disaster, Ministry of Natural Resources)

  • Leizhi Wang

    (Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute)

Abstract

Attribution analysis is widely used to assess the impacts of environmental change on water resources. However, the chain of uncertainty involved is often not given sufficient attention, which can lead to inaccurate assessments and poor responses. This study aims to build a framework for attribution analysis of streamflow changes considering uncertainties. Under this framework, a large-scale Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model is established and calibrated using streamflow data collected from key stations, with model parameter posterior distributions obtained from the Differential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis (DREAM) algorithm. A multi-route attribution analysis to attribute streamflow change to the influence of driving factors is performed. The developed methodology is applied to a case study of the Upper Yangtze River Basin (UYRB) in China. Results reveal that: (1) Streamflow decreases significantly in the UYRB with varying characteristics at small scale. (2) Precipitation plays the most dominate role in driving streamflow changes with the largest uncertainty, while other driving factors behave differently in various river basins. (3) Changes in precipitation, maximum temperature, wind speed and land use/ cover change (LUCC) tend to decrease streamflow, while changes in minimum temperature and relative humidity tend to increase streamflow in the UYRB. These findings can help enhance the understanding of the influence of climate change and human activities on streamflow, and provide further insights into the adaptive water resources management.

Suggested Citation

  • Manlin Wang & Yu Zhang & Yan Lu & Li Gao & Leizhi Wang, 2023. "Attribution Analysis of Streamflow Changes Based on Large-scale Hydrological Modeling with Uncertainties," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 37(2), pages 713-730, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:37:y:2023:i:2:d:10.1007_s11269-022-03396-7
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-022-03396-7
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. T. P. Barnett & J. C. Adam & D. P. Lettenmaier, 2005. "Potential impacts of a warming climate on water availability in snow-dominated regions," Nature, Nature, vol. 438(7066), pages 303-309, November.
    2. Xinyu Wan & Lijuan Hua & Shutan Yang & Hoshin V. Gupta & Ping’an Zhong, 2018. "Evaluating the Impacts of a Large-Scale Multi-Reservoir System on Flooding: Case of the Huai River in China," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 32(3), pages 1013-1033, February.
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    1. Akanksha Balha & Amit Singh & Suneel Pandey & Reetesh Kumar & Javed Mallick & Chander Kumar Singh, 2023. "Assessing the Impact of Land-Use Dynamics to Predict the Changes in Hydrological Variables Using Effective Impervious Area (EIA)," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 37(10), pages 3999-4014, August.
    2. Shanhu Jiang & Yongwei Zhu & Liliang Ren & Denghua Yan & Ying Liu & Hao Cui & Menghao Wang & Chong-Yu Xu, 2023. "A Complementary Streamflow Attribution Framework Coupled Climate, Vegetation and Water Withdrawal," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 37(12), pages 4807-4822, September.

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