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Synergistic Effects of Changes in Climate and Vegetation on Basin Runoff

Author

Listed:
  • Cheng Zhang

    (North China Electric Power University)

  • Chuansen Wu

    (North China Electric Power University)

  • Zedong Peng

    (North China Electric Power University)

  • Shengyang Kuai

    (North China Electric Power University)

  • Shanghong Zhang

    (North China Electric Power University)

Abstract

Climate and vegetation are important components of a changing environment that have synergistic effects on surface runoff. To date, few researchers have included the synergistic effects of changes in climate and vegetation in runoff simulation studies. In this study, a water-heat balance model based on the Budyko hypothesis was established, and an empirical formula for estimating model parameters based on the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index was proposed. This Normalized Difference Vegetation Index-climate relationship model allowed the synergistic effects of changes in climate and vegetation on runoff trends to be analyzed. The model was tested in the Fen River Basin, China. The results showed that the annual runoff would be 15.4%–39.5% (between 2020 and 2100) higher under two climate change scenarios than in the baseline period (2006–2015). Climate-driven change in the vegetation cover accounted for 8.0%–19.6% of the total variation in the runoff. The change in the vegetation cover inhibited the increase in runoff. To improve the accuracy of models and avoid overestimates, synergistic changes in vegetation and climate should be included in model simulations.

Suggested Citation

  • Cheng Zhang & Chuansen Wu & Zedong Peng & Shengyang Kuai & Shanghong Zhang, 2022. "Synergistic Effects of Changes in Climate and Vegetation on Basin Runoff," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(9), pages 3265-3281, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:36:y:2022:i:9:d:10.1007_s11269-022-03199-w
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-022-03199-w
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Guangxing Ji & Leying Wu & Liangdong Wang & Dan Yan & Zhizhu Lai, 2021. "Attribution Analysis of Seasonal Runoff in the Source Region of the Yellow River Using Seasonal Budyko Hypothesis," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(5), pages 1-14, May.
    2. Xiaoming Feng & Bojie Fu & Shilong Piao & Shuai Wang & Philippe Ciais & Zhenzhong Zeng & Yihe Lü & Yuan Zeng & Yue Li & Xiaohui Jiang & Bingfang Wu, 2016. "Revegetation in China’s Loess Plateau is approaching sustainable water resource limits," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 6(11), pages 1019-1022, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. Larissa S. Melo & Veber A. F. Costa & Wilson S. Fernandes, 2023. "Assessing the Anthropogenic and Climatic Components in Runoff Changes of the São Francisco River Catchment," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 37(9), pages 3615-3629, July.

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