IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/waterr/v35y2021i8d10.1007_s11269-021-02854-y.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Middle- and Long-Term Streamflow Forecasting and Uncertainty Analysis Using Lasso-DBN-Bootstrap Model

Author

Listed:
  • Haibo Chu

    (Tsinghua University
    Beijing University of Technology)

  • Jiahua Wei

    (Tsinghua University
    Qinghai University)

  • Yuan Jiang

    (Beijing Institute of Geology)

Abstract

Middle-term and long-term streamflow forecasting is of great significance for water resources planning and management, cascade reservoirs optimal operation, agriculture and hydro-power generation. In this work, a framework was proposed which integrates least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (lasso), DBN and bootstrap to improve the performance and the stability of streamflow forecasting with the lead-time of one month. Lasso helps to screen the appropriate predictors for the DBN model, and the DBN model simulates the complex relationship between the selection predictors and streamflow, and then bootstrap with the DBN model contributes to evaluate the uncertainty. The Three-River Headwaters Region (TRHR) was taken as a case study. The results indicated that lasso-DBN-bootstrap model produced significantly more accurate forecasting results than the other three models and provides reliable information on the forecasting uncertainty, which will be valuable for water resources management and planning.

Suggested Citation

  • Haibo Chu & Jiahua Wei & Yuan Jiang, 2021. "Middle- and Long-Term Streamflow Forecasting and Uncertainty Analysis Using Lasso-DBN-Bootstrap Model," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 35(8), pages 2617-2632, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:35:y:2021:i:8:d:10.1007_s11269-021-02854-y
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-021-02854-y
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11269-021-02854-y
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11269-021-02854-y?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Wang, H.Z. & Wang, G.B. & Li, G.Q. & Peng, J.C. & Liu, Y.T., 2016. "Deep belief network based deterministic and probabilistic wind speed forecasting approach," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 182(C), pages 80-93.
    2. Yuan Jiang & Yunxiao He & Heping Zhang, 2016. "Variable Selection With Prior Information for Generalized Linear Models via the Prior LASSO Method," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 111(513), pages 355-376, March.
    3. Vinit Sehgal & Mukesh Tiwari & Chandranath Chatterjee, 2014. "Wavelet Bootstrap Multiple Linear Regression Based Hybrid Modeling for Daily River Discharge Forecasting," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(10), pages 2793-2811, August.
    4. Wang, Kejun & Qi, Xiaoxia & Liu, Hongda & Song, Jiakang, 2018. "Deep belief network based k-means cluster approach for short-term wind power forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 165(PA), pages 840-852.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Lili Wang & Yanlong Guo & Manhong Fan, 2022. "Improving Annual Streamflow Prediction by Extracting Information from High-frequency Components of Streamflow," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(12), pages 4535-4555, September.
    2. Zhuoqi Wang & Yuan Si & Haibo Chu, 2022. "Daily Streamflow Prediction and Uncertainty Using a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) Network Coupled with Bootstrap," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(12), pages 4575-4590, September.
    3. Uttam Singh & Pramod Kumar Sharma, 2022. "Seasonal Uncertainty Estimation of Surface Nuclear Magnetic Resonance Water Content using Bootstrap Statistics," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(7), pages 2493-2508, May.
    4. Jin Hyuck Kim & Jang Hyun Sung & Shamsuddin Shahid & Eun-Sung Chung, 2022. "Future Hydrological Drought Analysis Considering Agricultural Water Withdrawal Under SSP Scenarios," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(9), pages 2913-2930, July.
    5. Bao-Jian Li & Guo-Liang Sun & Yan Liu & Wen-Chuan Wang & Xu-Dong Huang, 2022. "Monthly Runoff Forecasting Using Variational Mode Decomposition Coupled with Gray Wolf Optimizer-Based Long Short-term Memory Neural Networks," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(6), pages 2095-2115, April.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Wang, Yun & Zou, Runmin & Liu, Fang & Zhang, Lingjun & Liu, Qianyi, 2021. "A review of wind speed and wind power forecasting with deep neural networks," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 304(C).
    2. Ahmad, Tanveer & Chen, Huanxin, 2019. "Deep learning for multi-scale smart energy forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 175(C), pages 98-112.
    3. Zhang, Yu & Li, Yanting & Zhang, Guangyao, 2020. "Short-term wind power forecasting approach based on Seq2Seq model using NWP data," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 213(C).
    4. Ghimire, Sujan & Deo, Ravinesh C. & Raj, Nawin & Mi, Jianchun, 2019. "Deep solar radiation forecasting with convolutional neural network and long short-term memory network algorithms," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 253(C), pages 1-1.
    5. Nathan Oaks Farrar & Mohd Hasan Ali & Dipankar Dasgupta, 2023. "Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning in Grid Connected Wind Turbine Control Systems: A Comprehensive Review," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(3), pages 1-25, February.
    6. Sharifzadeh, Mahdi & Sikinioti-Lock, Alexandra & Shah, Nilay, 2019. "Machine-learning methods for integrated renewable power generation: A comparative study of artificial neural networks, support vector regression, and Gaussian Process Regression," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 513-538.
    7. Liu, Hui & Yu, Chengqing & Wu, Haiping & Duan, Zhu & Yan, Guangxi, 2020. "A new hybrid ensemble deep reinforcement learning model for wind speed short term forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 202(C).
    8. Yin, Hao & Ou, Zuhong & Fu, Jiajin & Cai, Yongfeng & Chen, Shun & Meng, Anbo, 2021. "A novel transfer learning approach for wind power prediction based on a serio-parallel deep learning architecture," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 234(C).
    9. Wang, Huaizhi & Ruan, Jiaqi & Ma, Zhengwei & Zhou, Bin & Fu, Xueqian & Cao, Guangzhong, 2019. "Deep learning aided interval state prediction for improving cyber security in energy internet," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 174(C), pages 1292-1304.
    10. Hu, Jiaxiang & Hu, Weihao & Cao, Di & Sun, Xinwu & Chen, Jianjun & Huang, Yuehui & Chen, Zhe & Blaabjerg, Frede, 2024. "Probabilistic net load forecasting based on transformer network and Gaussian process-enabled residual modeling learning method," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 225(C).
    11. Agga, Ali & Abbou, Ahmed & Labbadi, Moussa & El Houm, Yassine, 2021. "Short-term self consumption PV plant power production forecasts based on hybrid CNN-LSTM, ConvLSTM models," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 177(C), pages 101-112.
    12. Mojtaba Qolipour & Ali Mostafaeipour & Mohammad Saidi-Mehrabad & Hamid R Arabnia, 2019. "Prediction of wind speed using a new Grey-extreme learning machine hybrid algorithm: A case study," Energy & Environment, , vol. 30(1), pages 44-62, February.
    13. Yang, Mao & Wang, Da & Xu, Chuanyu & Dai, Bozhi & Ma, Miaomiao & Su, Xin, 2023. "Power transfer characteristics in fluctuation partition algorithm for wind speed and its application to wind power forecasting," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 211(C), pages 582-594.
    14. Ke Yan & Xudong Wang & Yang Du & Ning Jin & Haichao Huang & Hangxia Zhou, 2018. "Multi-Step Short-Term Power Consumption Forecasting with a Hybrid Deep Learning Strategy," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(11), pages 1-15, November.
    15. Zonggui Yao & Chen Wang, 2018. "A Hybrid Model Based on A Modified Optimization Algorithm and An Artificial Intelligence Algorithm for Short-Term Wind Speed Multi-Step Ahead Forecasting," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(5), pages 1-33, May.
    16. Shengli Liao & Xudong Tian & Benxi Liu & Tian Liu & Huaying Su & Binbin Zhou, 2022. "Short-Term Wind Power Prediction Based on LightGBM and Meteorological Reanalysis," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(17), pages 1-21, August.
    17. Cen, Xiao & Chen, Zengliang & Chen, Haifeng & Ding, Chen & Ding, Bo & Li, Fei & Lou, Fangwei & Zhu, Zhenyu & Zhang, Hongyu & Hong, Bingyuan, 2024. "User repurchase behavior prediction for integrated energy supply stations based on the user profiling method," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 286(C).
    18. Wang, Kejun & Qi, Xiaoxia & Liu, Hongda & Song, Jiakang, 2018. "Deep belief network based k-means cluster approach for short-term wind power forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 165(PA), pages 840-852.
    19. Lee, Yoonjae & Ha, Byeongmin & Hwangbo, Soonho, 2022. "Generative model-based hybrid forecasting model for renewable electricity supply using long short-term memory networks: A case study of South Korea's energy transition policy," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 200(C), pages 69-87.
    20. Türkoğlu, A. Selim & Erkmen, Burcu & Eren, Yavuz & Erdinç, Ozan & Küçükdemiral, İbrahim, 2024. "Integrated Approaches in Resilient Hierarchical Load Forecasting via TCN and Optimal Valley Filling Based Demand Response Application," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 360(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:35:y:2021:i:8:d:10.1007_s11269-021-02854-y. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.