A Decision Support System Based on AHP for Ranking Strategies to Manage Emergencies on Drinking Water Supply Systems

The provision of critical services, such as drinking water, is crucial both in ordinary and in emergency conditions due to either natural (e.g. earthquakes, droughts, etc.) or man-made hazards (e.g. contamination). Although several models and tools have been developed to support decision-making in ordinary operations, such as e.g. for scheduling ordinary maintenance and for planning rehabilitation/replacement activities, relatively limited attention has been paid to support decision-making in emergency conditions, which are characterized by high complexity and inherent uncertainty. However, a huge amount of information related to emergency management of drinking water supply systems is typically available in the form of expert knowledge and may represent a precious source to enhance the effectiveness of decision-making processes. The present research aims at building a Decision Support System (DSS) for emergency managers, to identify and rank the most suitable measures to deal with emergency water supply. The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) has been used for integrating both scientific knowledge and expert knowledge in the decision process, and for explicitly including some criteria (e.g. social impacts) which are highly relevant during crises, but often difficult to consider in the most widely used methods and tools. Both the National Department of Civil Protection (DPC) and some water utilities with recent experiences in emergency management have been involved in model conceptualization and building.