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Developing a Robust Multi-Attribute Decision-Making Framework to Evaluate Performance of Water System Design and Planning under Climate Change

Author

Listed:
  • Babak Zolghadr-Asli

    (University of Tehran)

  • Omid Bozorg-Haddad

    (University of Tehran)

  • Maedeh Enayati

    (University of Tehran)

  • Erfan Goharian

    (University of South Carolina)

Abstract

In theory, emergence of robustness concept has pushed decision-makers toward designing alternatives, such as resistant against the potential fluctuations fueled by uncertain surrounding environment. This study promotes an objective-based multi-attributes decision-making framework that takes into account the uncertainties associated with the impacts of the climate change on water resources systems. To capture the uncertainties of climate change, Monte Carlo approach has been used to generate a series of ensembles. These generated ensembles represent the stochastic behavior of the hydro-climatic variables under climate change. This framework represents the inherent uncertainties associated with hydro-climatic simulations. Next, a coupled TOPSIS/Entropy multi-attribute decision-making framework has been formed to prioritize the feasible alternatives using system performance measures. The main objective of this framework is to minimize the risk of deceptive and subjective assessments during decision-making process. Karkheh River basin has been selected as a case study to demonstrate the implication of this framework. Using a set of system performance attributes, the performance of two hydropower systems has been estimated during the baseline period and under the future climate change conditions. According to the conducted frequency analysis, the alternative in which both hydropower projects would go under construction emerged as the robust solution (i.e., there was a 99.9% chance that it outperforms other solutions). The results indicate that the construction of these hydropower systems leads to the increase of Karkheh River basin robustness in the future.

Suggested Citation

  • Babak Zolghadr-Asli & Omid Bozorg-Haddad & Maedeh Enayati & Erfan Goharian, 2021. "Developing a Robust Multi-Attribute Decision-Making Framework to Evaluate Performance of Water System Design and Planning under Climate Change," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 35(1), pages 279-298, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:35:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1007_s11269-020-02725-y
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-020-02725-y
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Zolghadr-Asli, Babak & McIntyre, Neil & Djordjevic, Slobodan & Farmani, Raziyeh & Pagliero, Liliana, 2023. "The sustainability of desalination as a remedy to the water crisis in the agriculture sector: An analysis from the climate-water-energy-food nexus perspective," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 286(C).
    2. Maria da Conceição Cunha, 2023. "Water and Environmental Systems Management Under Uncertainty: From Scenario Construction to Robust Solutions and Adaptation," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 37(6), pages 2271-2285, May.

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