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Evaluation of the Influence of Occurrence Time of Drought on the Annual Yield of Rain-Fed Winter Wheat Using Backward Multiple Generalized Estimation Equation

Author

Listed:
  • Abdol Rassoul Zarei

    (Fasa University)

  • Ali Shabani

    (Fasa University)

  • Mohammad Reza Mahmoudi

    (Fasa University
    Duy Tan University)

Abstract

Rain-fed agriculture, which is highly dependent on rainfall, is one of various types of farming method. Therefore, the occurrence of drought can play a significant role in the yields of rain-fed plants. Therefore, the present study tries to examine the most important effective time period on the changes of the annual yield of rain-fed winter wheat (AY) under the influence of drought changes by using the correlation between calculated SPEI drought index in different time scales and simulated AY using AquaCrop model based on Backward Multiple Generalized Estimation Equation (BMGEE) method in the north-west of Iran. In this study, climatic data of 8 synoptic stations from 1967 to 2016 were used to calculate SPEI indices and AY values. According to the results, at Arak station time period from Jan to Mar (with |B| coefficient equal to 0.688), at Babolsar station time period from Nov to Jan (with |B| coefficient equal to 3.747), at Ghazvin, Ramsar and Rasht stations time period from Mar to May (with |B| coefficients equal to 1.155, 1.35 and 2.185, respectively), at Zanjan and Tabriz stations time period from Apr to Jun (with |B| coefficients equal to 0.249 and 1.33, respectively) and at Tehran station time period from Feb to July (with |B| coefficient equal to 4.018) were the most important effective time periods on the changes of AY under the influence of drought changes. It seems steam extension and heading growth stages of rain-fed winter wheat are the most sensitive stages of plant growth to drought occurrence.

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  • Abdol Rassoul Zarei & Ali Shabani & Mohammad Reza Mahmoudi, 2020. "Evaluation of the Influence of Occurrence Time of Drought on the Annual Yield of Rain-Fed Winter Wheat Using Backward Multiple Generalized Estimation Equation," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 34(9), pages 2911-2931, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:34:y:2020:i:9:d:10.1007_s11269-020-02590-9
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-020-02590-9
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Morteza Mohsenipour & Shamsuddin Shahid & Eun-sung Chung & Xiao-jun Wang, 2018. "Changing Pattern of Droughts during Cropping Seasons of Bangladesh," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 32(5), pages 1555-1568, March.
    2. Mohmmed, Alnail & Li, Jianhua & Elaru, Joshua & Elbashier, Mohammed M.A. & Keesstra, Saskia & Artemi, Cerdà & Martin, Kabenge & Reuben, Makomere & Teffera, Zeben, 2018. "Assessing drought vulnerability and adaptation among farmers in Gadaref region, Eastern Sudan," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 402-413.
    3. Toumi, J. & Er-Raki, S. & Ezzahar, J. & Khabba, S. & Jarlan, L. & Chehbouni, A., 2016. "Performance assessment of AquaCrop model for estimating evapotranspiration, soil water content and grain yield of winter wheat in Tensift Al Haouz (Morocco): Application to irrigation management," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 219-235.
    4. Mohammad Ghabaei Sough & Hamid Zare Abyaneh & Abolfazl Mosaedi, 2018. "Assessing a Multivariate Approach Based on Scalogram Analysis for Agricultural Drought Monitoring," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 32(10), pages 3423-3440, August.
    5. Abdol Rassoul Zarei, 2018. "Evaluation of Drought Condition in Arid and Semi- Arid Regions, Using RDI Index," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 32(5), pages 1689-1711, March.
    6. Mustafa, S.M.T. & Vanuytrecht, E. & Huysmans, M., 2017. "Combined deficit irrigation and soil fertility management on different soil textures to improve wheat yield in drought-prone Bangladesh," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 191(C), pages 124-137.
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    Cited by:

    1. Wang, Runyuan & Zhao, Hong & Qi, Yue & Zhao, Funian & Chen, Fei & Ding, Wenkui & Jiang, Jufang & Zhang, Kai & Wang, Heling, 2023. "Onset and severity thresholds of drought impacts on wheat," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 281(C).
    2. Soumyashree Dixit & V. Neethin & K. V. Jayakumar, 2023. "Assessment of Crop-Drought Relationship: A Climate Change Perspective," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 37(10), pages 4075-4095, August.

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