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Estimating the Impacts of Urbanization in the Next 100 years on Spatial Hydrological Response

Author

Listed:
  • Xiangang Luo

    (China University of Geosciences)

  • Jianqing Li

    (China University of Geosciences)

  • Shuang Zhu

    (China University of Geosciences)

  • Zhanya Xu

    (China University of Geosciences)

  • Zhibin Huo

    (Chinese Academy of Geological Sciences)

Abstract

Figuring out the impacts of future urbanization on hydrological response is significant in a rapidly changing environment. As an important urbanization element, the various impacts of land use/land cover change have been studied a lot with the methods of combining different land use scenarios and hydrological models. However, it needs to be improved because of only simplified land use scenarios being considered, which cannot reflect the real urbanization process of the future. Taking into account the roles of social and economic development, in this paper, a hybrid FLUS-SWAT method is proposed for the first time for accurately evaluating the hydrological responses to urbanization. First, instead of subjective assumption, future land use patterns are predicted by developing improved cellular automata model on driving forces involving regional population, gross domestic product, location, transportation network, etc. Then, spatial hydrological responses were individually analyzed by coupling projected future land use scenarios and distributed hydrological model. The results clearly forecasted a burst of urban expansion in future 100 years in Zhexi river basin, China. Loss of forest and agriculture land will lead to a 64.86% increase in surface runoff and 9.05% decrease in groundwater flow. This study is significant for ecological environment planning because it provides a direct understanding of future urbanization level as well as its impacts on hydrological processes.

Suggested Citation

  • Xiangang Luo & Jianqing Li & Shuang Zhu & Zhanya Xu & Zhibin Huo, 2020. "Estimating the Impacts of Urbanization in the Next 100 years on Spatial Hydrological Response," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 34(5), pages 1673-1692, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:34:y:2020:i:5:d:10.1007_s11269-020-02519-2
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-020-02519-2
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jinkang Du & Hanyi Rui & Tianhui Zuo & Qian Li & Dapeng Zheng & Ailing Chen & Youpeng Xu & C.-Y. Xu, 2013. "Hydrological Simulation by SWAT Model with Fixed and Varied Parameterization Approaches Under Land Use Change," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(8), pages 2823-2838, June.
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    5. Xiao-Bo Luan & Pu-Te Wu & Shi-Kun Sun & Xiao-Lei Li & Yu-Bao Wang & Xue-Rui Gao, 2018. "Impact of Land Use Change on Hydrologic Processes in a Large Plain Irrigation District," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 32(9), pages 3203-3217, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jun Zhang & Zhaoshun Liu & Shujie Li, 2022. "Research on Land Use Simulation of Incorporating Historical Information into the FLUS Model—Setting Songyuan City as an Example," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(7), pages 1-14, March.

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