IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/waterr/v33y2019i15d10.1007_s11269-019-02413-6.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Quantifying the Contributions of Climate Change and Human Activities to Drought Extremes, Using an Improved Evaluation Framework

Author

Listed:
  • Shuang Zhu

    (China University of Geosciences)

  • Zhanya Xu

    (China University of Geosciences)

  • Xiangang Luo

    (China University of Geosciences)

  • Chao Wang

    (China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research)

  • Hairong Zhang

    (China Yangtze Power Company Limited)

Abstract

An increasing amount of studies have emphasized that more frequent and extensive extreme events have occurred around the world. The effects of climate change and anthropogenic activities on the variation in runoff have been studied extensively. However, the effects of variation in hydrological extremes have rarely been studied. In this study, a modeling framework was developed to quantify the time-varying probability of extreme hydrological drought events under a changing environment, and the framework includes standardized runoff index construction, a change point test, generalized extreme value modeling, a return years analysis and an evaluation of the impact of climate change and human activities. Importantly, unlike the common change point test in the individual runoff series, the copula method was introduced to determine the change in the precipitation-runoff dependence structure. Generalized extreme value models were developed to make inferences about the return probability of the extreme standardized runoff index. The new method was applied to the Jinshajiang River Basin (JSJR). The results show that a change point in the relationship between precipitation and runoff occurred in 1995. Even though the climate became slightly drier, extreme drought was alleviated in the JSJR, and human activities were the main contributors to drought mitigation. The copula multivariate change point detection was accurate. Studying the impacts of climate change and human activities on general runoff and hydrological drought extremes is important to better understanding complex water resource variations.

Suggested Citation

  • Shuang Zhu & Zhanya Xu & Xiangang Luo & Chao Wang & Hairong Zhang, 2019. "Quantifying the Contributions of Climate Change and Human Activities to Drought Extremes, Using an Improved Evaluation Framework," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 33(15), pages 5051-5065, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:33:y:2019:i:15:d:10.1007_s11269-019-02413-6
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-019-02413-6
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11269-019-02413-6
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11269-019-02413-6?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Daniel Berg, 2009. "Copula goodness-of-fit testing: an overview and power comparison," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(7-8), pages 675-701.
    2. Xiao-Bo Luan & Pu-Te Wu & Shi-Kun Sun & Xiao-Lei Li & Yu-Bao Wang & Xue-Rui Gao, 2018. "Impact of Land Use Change on Hydrologic Processes in a Large Plain Irrigation District," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 32(9), pages 3203-3217, July.
    3. Lei Zou & Jun Xia & Dunxian She, 2018. "Analysis of Impacts of Climate Change and Human Activities on Hydrological Drought: a Case Study in the Wei River Basin, China," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 32(4), pages 1421-1438, March.
    4. A. N. Pettitt, 1979. "A Non‐Parametric Approach to the Change‐Point Problem," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 28(2), pages 126-135, June.
    5. Javad Bazrafshan & Somayeh Hejabi, 2018. "A Non-Stationary Reconnaissance Drought Index (NRDI) for Drought Monitoring in a Changing Climate," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 32(8), pages 2611-2624, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Qinghe Zhao & Shengyan Ding & Xiaoyu Ji & Zhendong Hong & Mengwen Lu & Peng Wang, 2021. "Relative Contribution of the Xiaolangdi Dam to Runoff Changes in the Lower Yellow River," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(5), pages 1-21, May.
    2. Mohammad Achite & Ommolbanin Bazrafshan & Zohreh Pakdaman & Andrzej Wałęga & Fateme Pourhaghverdi & Tommaso Caloiero, 2024. "Uncertainty analysis of SPI and SRI calculation using bootstrap in the Mediterranean regions of Algeria," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 120(12), pages 11031-11061, September.
    3. Junaid Maqsood & Aitazaz A. Farooque & Farhat Abbas & Travis Esau & Xander Wang & Bishnu Acharya & Hassan Afzaal, 2022. "Application of Artificial Neural Networks to Project Reference Evapotranspiration Under Climate Change Scenarios," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(3), pages 835-851, February.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Youxin Wang & Tao Peng & Qingxia Lin & Vijay P. Singh & Xiaohua Dong & Chen Chen & Ji Liu & Wenjuan Chang & Gaoxu Wang, 2022. "A New Non-stationary Hydrological Drought Index Encompassing Climate Indices and Modified Reservoir Index as Covariates," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(7), pages 2433-2454, May.
    2. Robinson Ploszai & Miriam Rita Moro Mine & Daniel Henrique Marco Detzel, 2022. "An Analysis of Non-stationary Drought Conditions in Parana State Based on Climate Change Scenarios," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(10), pages 3401-3415, August.
    3. Ziqiang Xing & Denghua Yan & Cheng Zhang & Gang Wang & Dongdong Zhang, 2015. "Spatial Characterization and Bivariate Frequency Analysis of Precipitation and Runoff in the Upper Huai River Basin, China," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(9), pages 3291-3304, July.
    4. Stephen J. Déry & Marco A. Hernández-Henríquez & Tricia A. Stadnyk & Tara J. Troy, 2021. "Vanishing weekly hydropeaking cycles in American and Canadian rivers," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-12, December.
    5. Wang Ruihua & Wang Hongjun, 2020. "Correlation Analysis of Stock Market and Fund Market Based on M-Copula-EGARCH-M-GED Model," Journal of Systems Science and Information, De Gruyter, vol. 8(3), pages 240-252, June.
    6. Wanling Huang & Artem Prokhorov, 2014. "A Goodness-of-fit Test for Copulas," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(7), pages 751-771, October.
    7. Kleinow, Jacob & Moreira, Fernando, 2016. "Systemic risk among European banks: A copula approach," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 27-42.
    8. Siyu Yue & Huaien Li & Fengmin Song, 2023. "Temporal–Spatial Variations in the Economic Value Produced by Environmental Flows in a Water Shortage Area in Northwest China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-17, February.
    9. Kazi Ali Tamaddun & Ajay Kalra & Sajjad Ahmad, 2019. "Spatiotemporal Variation in the Continental US Streamflow in Association with Large-Scale Climate Signals Across Multiple Spectral Bands," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 33(6), pages 1947-1968, April.
    10. González-Rivera, Gloria & Yoldas, Emre, 2012. "Autocontour-based evaluation of multivariate predictive densities," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 328-342.
    11. Jie Yang & Yimin Wang & Jun Yao & Jianxia Chang & Guoxin Xu & Xin Wang & Hui Hu, 2020. "Coincidence probability analysis of hydrologic low-flow under the changing environment in the Wei River Basin," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 103(2), pages 1711-1726, September.
    12. Alina Bărbulescu & Cristian Ștefan Dumitriu, 2021. "On the Connection between the GEP Performances and the Time Series Properties," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(16), pages 1-19, August.
    13. Peter Grundke & Kamil Pliszka, 2018. "A macroeconomic reverse stress test," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 50(4), pages 1093-1130, May.
    14. Alfredas Račkauskas & Martin Wendler, 2020. "Convergence of U-processes in Hölder spaces with application to robust detection of a changed segment," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 61(4), pages 1409-1435, August.
    15. Hsin-Yu Chen & Yu-Hsiang Hsu & Chia-Chi Huang & Hsin-Fu Yeh, 2023. "Baseflow Variation in Southern Taiwan Basin," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-23, February.
    16. Catherine Araujo Bonjean & Alioune N’diaye & Olivier Santoni, 2019. "Who benefits from the return of the rains? The case of the Ferlo breeders in Senegal [A qui profite le retour des pluies ? Le cas des éleveurs du Ferlo]," CERDI Working papers halshs-02419601, HAL.
    17. Menghao Wang & Shanhu Jiang & Liliang Ren & Chong-Yu Xu & Linyong Wei & Hao Cui & Fei Yuan & Yi Liu & Xiaoli Yang, 2022. "The Development of a Nonstationary Standardised Streamflow Index Using Climate and Reservoir Indices as Covariates," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(4), pages 1377-1392, March.
    18. Matthias R. Fengler & Helmut Herwartz & Christian Werner, 2012. "A Dynamic Copula Approach to Recovering the Index Implied Volatility Skew," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 10(3), pages 457-493, June.
    19. Hobæk Haff, Ingrid, 2012. "Comparison of estimators for pair-copula constructions," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 91-105.
    20. Mendes, Beatriz Vaz de Melo & Marques, Daniel S., 2012. "Choosing an optimal investment strategy: The role of robust pair-copulas based portfolios," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 449-464.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:33:y:2019:i:15:d:10.1007_s11269-019-02413-6. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.