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Impacts of Hydrological Changes on Annual Runoff Distribution in Seasonally Dry Basins

Author

Listed:
  • Francesco Viola

    (University of Cagliari)

  • X. Feng

    (University of Minnesota)

  • D. Caracciolo

    (Regional Environmental Protection Agency of Sardinia)

Abstract

Runoff is expected to change due to climate and land use change. Because it constitutes a large component of the terrestrial water budget, we need to develop new policies for managing regional water resources. To do so, we must first attribute changes in the natural flow regime to either climate or land use change. In this context, the Budyko’s curve has previously been adopted to separate the impacts of climate and land use change on runoff by using long term hydrological variables. In this study, a framework based on Fu’s equation (which describes Budyko’s curve) is used to separate the impacts of climate and land use change on annual runoff distributions. Specifically, this framework is based on a recently developed method to obtain annual runoff probability density function (pdf) in seasonally dry basins—such as those in Mediterranean regions—from climate statistics and Fu’s equation parameter ω. The effect of climate change is captured through variations in the first order statistics of annual rainfall and potential evapotranspiration, while land use change is represented by changes in Fu’s equation parameter ω. The effects of these two drivers (i.e., climate and land use change) are analyzed by reconstructing the annual runoff pdfs for the current period and for likely future scenarios, based on predictions from global circulation models and urbanization trajectories. The results show that climate change can lead to a strong reduction in mean annual runoff, a shift of the runoff pdf toward lower values, and a decrease in its variance. Concurrent changes in climate and land use almost always result in a reduction in the mean annual runoff, due to the greater impact of climate change on the runoff pdf.

Suggested Citation

  • Francesco Viola & X. Feng & D. Caracciolo, 2019. "Impacts of Hydrological Changes on Annual Runoff Distribution in Seasonally Dry Basins," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 33(7), pages 2319-2333, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:33:y:2019:i:7:d:10.1007_s11269-019-02250-7
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-019-02250-7
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Domenico Caracciolo & D. Pumo & F. Viola, 2018. "Budyko’s Based Method for Annual Runoff Characterization across Different Climatic Areas: an Application to United States," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 32(9), pages 3189-3202, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Shuai Li & Tao Du & Christopher James Gippel, 2022. "A Modified Fu (1981) Equation with a Time-varying Parameter that Improves Estimates of Inter-annual Variability in Catchment Water Balance," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(5), pages 1645-1659, March.
    2. Lanie A. Alejo & Arlen S. Alejandro, 2022. "Changes in Irrigation Planning and Development Parameters Due to Climate Change," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(5), pages 1711-1726, March.
    3. Zhengfang Jiang & Baohong Lu & Zunguang Zhou & Yirui Zhao, 2024. "Comparison of Process-Driven SWAT Model and Data-Driven Machine Learning Techniques in Simulating Streamflow: A Case Study in the Fenhe River Basin," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(14), pages 1-21, July.
    4. Xiangang Luo & Jianqing Li & Shuang Zhu & Zhanya Xu & Zhibin Huo, 2020. "Estimating the Impacts of Urbanization in the Next 100 years on Spatial Hydrological Response," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 34(5), pages 1673-1692, March.

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