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Quantification of Expected Changes in Peak Flow Quantiles in Climate Change by Combining Continuous Hydrological Modelling with the Modified Curve Number Method

Author

Listed:
  • E. Soriano

    (Universidad Politécnica de Madrid)

  • L. Mediero

    (Universidad Politécnica de Madrid)

  • C. Garijo

    (Universidad Politécnica de Madrid)

Abstract

Climate projections point to modifications in the magnitude, frequency and timing of floods in the future. However, robust methodologies to quantify how climate change will modify the catchment response in flood events are required. Continuous hydrological modelling usually smooth magnitudes of extreme events. This paper proposes a methodology to improve the assessment of flood changes in the future driven by climate change. Climate change projections of the EURO-CORDEX programme obtained under the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) supplied are used. Four catchments located on the Douro River Basin have been considered as case studies. Precipitation and temperature projections have been bias corrected to reduce errors with observations in the control period (1971–2004). The HBV continuous hydrological simulation model has been used to simulate the soil moisture content on the day of occurrence of the maximum annual rainfalls in the four catchments. The modified curve number method has been utilized to obtain the changes expected in the future in flood magnitudes, considering the initial soil moisture contents estimated with the HBV model and the expected changes in annual maximum rainfalls. The methodology has been applied to the control period (1971–2004) to check the validity of the process. Then, the methodology has been applied to the future period (2011–2095), to quantify the changes expected in the future in flood magnitudes under climate change conditions. The combined use of the HBV continuous hydrological simulation with the modified curve number method improves the results provided by the HBV model. The proposed methodology allows a better characterization of the response of catchments in flood events. It also considers the expected variation in the antecedent moisture content in catchments in the future, driven by increasing temperatures and decreasing mean annual precipitations in the future. The results show that flood quantiles will increase in three of the four catchments considered.

Suggested Citation

  • E. Soriano & L. Mediero & C. Garijo, 2020. "Quantification of Expected Changes in Peak Flow Quantiles in Climate Change by Combining Continuous Hydrological Modelling with the Modified Curve Number Method," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 34(14), pages 4381-4397, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:34:y:2020:i:14:d:10.1007_s11269-020-02670-w
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-020-02670-w
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Philippe Roudier & Jafet C. M. Andersson & Chantal Donnelly & Luc Feyen & Wouter Greuell & Fulco Ludwig, 2016. "Projections of future floods and hydrological droughts in Europe under a +2°C global warming," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 135(2), pages 341-355, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Shuai Zhou & Yimin Wang & Ziyan Li & Jianxia Chang & Aijun Guo, 2021. "Quantifying the Uncertainty Interaction Between the Model Input and Structure on Hydrological Processes," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 35(12), pages 3915-3935, September.
    2. Luis Garrote & Alvaro Sordo-Ward, 2020. "Preface to the Special Issue: Managing Water Resources for a Sustainable Future," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 34(14), pages 4307-4311, November.
    3. Bingyao Li & Jingming Hou & Donglai Li & Dong Yang & Hao Han & Xu Bi & Xinghua Wang & Reinhard Hinkelmann & Junqiang Xia, 2021. "Application of LiDAR UAV for High-Resolution Flood Modelling," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 35(5), pages 1433-1447, March.
    4. Jiqing Li & Jing Huang & Xuefeng Chu & Jay R. Lund, 2021. "An Improved Peaks-Over-Threshold Method and its Application in the Time-Varying Design Flood," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 35(3), pages 933-948, February.
    5. Akshay Kadu & Basudev Biswal, 2022. "A Model Combination Approach for Improving Streamflow Prediction," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(15), pages 5945-5959, December.

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