IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/waterr/v34y2020i14d10.1007_s11269-020-02670-w.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Quantification of Expected Changes in Peak Flow Quantiles in Climate Change by Combining Continuous Hydrological Modelling with the Modified Curve Number Method

Author

Listed:
  • E. Soriano

    (Universidad Politécnica de Madrid)

  • L. Mediero

    (Universidad Politécnica de Madrid)

  • C. Garijo

    (Universidad Politécnica de Madrid)

Abstract

Climate projections point to modifications in the magnitude, frequency and timing of floods in the future. However, robust methodologies to quantify how climate change will modify the catchment response in flood events are required. Continuous hydrological modelling usually smooth magnitudes of extreme events. This paper proposes a methodology to improve the assessment of flood changes in the future driven by climate change. Climate change projections of the EURO-CORDEX programme obtained under the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) supplied are used. Four catchments located on the Douro River Basin have been considered as case studies. Precipitation and temperature projections have been bias corrected to reduce errors with observations in the control period (1971–2004). The HBV continuous hydrological simulation model has been used to simulate the soil moisture content on the day of occurrence of the maximum annual rainfalls in the four catchments. The modified curve number method has been utilized to obtain the changes expected in the future in flood magnitudes, considering the initial soil moisture contents estimated with the HBV model and the expected changes in annual maximum rainfalls. The methodology has been applied to the control period (1971–2004) to check the validity of the process. Then, the methodology has been applied to the future period (2011–2095), to quantify the changes expected in the future in flood magnitudes under climate change conditions. The combined use of the HBV continuous hydrological simulation with the modified curve number method improves the results provided by the HBV model. The proposed methodology allows a better characterization of the response of catchments in flood events. It also considers the expected variation in the antecedent moisture content in catchments in the future, driven by increasing temperatures and decreasing mean annual precipitations in the future. The results show that flood quantiles will increase in three of the four catchments considered.

Suggested Citation

  • E. Soriano & L. Mediero & C. Garijo, 2020. "Quantification of Expected Changes in Peak Flow Quantiles in Climate Change by Combining Continuous Hydrological Modelling with the Modified Curve Number Method," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 34(14), pages 4381-4397, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:34:y:2020:i:14:d:10.1007_s11269-020-02670-w
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-020-02670-w
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11269-020-02670-w
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11269-020-02670-w?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Philippe Roudier & Jafet C. M. Andersson & Chantal Donnelly & Luc Feyen & Wouter Greuell & Fulco Ludwig, 2016. "Projections of future floods and hydrological droughts in Europe under a +2°C global warming," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 135(2), pages 341-355, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Shuai Zhou & Yimin Wang & Ziyan Li & Jianxia Chang & Aijun Guo, 2021. "Quantifying the Uncertainty Interaction Between the Model Input and Structure on Hydrological Processes," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 35(12), pages 3915-3935, September.
    2. Luis Garrote & Alvaro Sordo-Ward, 2020. "Preface to the Special Issue: Managing Water Resources for a Sustainable Future," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 34(14), pages 4307-4311, November.
    3. Bingyao Li & Jingming Hou & Donglai Li & Dong Yang & Hao Han & Xu Bi & Xinghua Wang & Reinhard Hinkelmann & Junqiang Xia, 2021. "Application of LiDAR UAV for High-Resolution Flood Modelling," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 35(5), pages 1433-1447, March.
    4. Jiqing Li & Jing Huang & Xuefeng Chu & Jay R. Lund, 2021. "An Improved Peaks-Over-Threshold Method and its Application in the Time-Varying Design Flood," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 35(3), pages 933-948, February.
    5. Akshay Kadu & Basudev Biswal, 2022. "A Model Combination Approach for Improving Streamflow Prediction," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(15), pages 5945-5959, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Alison Kay, 2022. "Differences in hydrological impacts using regional climate model and nested convection-permitting model data," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 173(1), pages 1-19, July.
    2. Joanna Nowak Da Costa & Beata Calka & Elzbieta Bielecka, 2021. "Urban Population Flood Impact Applied to a Warsaw Scenario," Resources, MDPI, vol. 10(6), pages 1-17, June.
    3. Ioannis Kougkoulos & Myriam Merad & Simon J. Cook & Ioannis Andredakis, 2021. "Floods in Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur and lessons for French flood risk governance," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 109(2), pages 1959-1980, November.
    4. Thibault Lemaitre-Basset & Ludovic Oudin & Guillaume Thirel, 2022. "Evapotranspiration in hydrological models under rising CO2: a jump into the unknown," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 172(3), pages 1-19, June.
    5. Valentina Krysanova & Jamal Zaherpour & Iulii Didovets & Simon N. Gosling & Dieter Gerten & Naota Hanasaki & Hannes Müller Schmied & Yadu Pokhrel & Yusuke Satoh & Qiuhong Tang & Yoshihide Wada, 2020. "How evaluation of global hydrological models can help to improve credibility of river discharge projections under climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 163(3), pages 1353-1377, December.
    6. A. L. Kay & V. A. Bell & B. P. Guillod & R. G. Jones & A. C. Rudd, 2018. "National-scale analysis of low flow frequency: historical trends and potential future changes," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 147(3), pages 585-599, April.
    7. Edwar Forero-Ortiz & Eduardo Martínez-Gomariz & Robert Monjo, 2020. "Climate Change Implications for Water Availability: A Case Study of Barcelona City," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(5), pages 1-15, February.
    8. Alison C. Rudd & A. L. Kay & V. A. Bell, 2019. "National-scale analysis of future river flow and soil moisture droughts: potential changes in drought characteristics," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 156(3), pages 323-340, October.
    9. Chantal Donnelly & Wouter Greuell & Jafet Andersson & Dieter Gerten & Giovanna Pisacane & Philippe Roudier & Fulco Ludwig, 2017. "Impacts of climate change on European hydrology at 1.5, 2 and 3 degrees mean global warming above preindustrial level," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 143(1), pages 13-26, July.
    10. Nina Knittel & Martin W. Jury & Birgit Bednar-Friedl & Gabriel Bachner & Andrea K. Steiner, 2020. "A global analysis of heat-related labour productivity losses under climate change—implications for Germany’s foreign trade," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 160(2), pages 251-269, May.
    11. Quoc Bao Pham & Sk Ajim Ali & Elzbieta Bielecka & Beata Calka & Agata Orych & Farhana Parvin & Ewa Łupikasza, 2022. "Flood vulnerability and buildings’ flood exposure assessment in a densely urbanised city: comparative analysis of three scenarios using a neural network approach," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 113(2), pages 1043-1081, September.
    12. Noora Veijalainen & Lauri Ahopelto & Mika Marttunen & Jaakko Jääskeläinen & Ritva Britschgi & Mirjam Orvomaa & Antti Belinskij & Marko Keskinen, 2019. "Severe Drought in Finland: Modeling Effects on Water Resources and Assessing Climate Change Impacts," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(8), pages 1-26, April.
    13. Jan Gaska, 2023. "Losses from Fluvial Floods in Poland over the 21st Century – Estimation Using the Productivity Costs Method," Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, Springer, vol. 7(3), pages 357-383, November.
    14. Georgy Ayzel, 2023. "Runoff for Russia (RFR v1.0): The Large-Sample Dataset of Simulated Runoff and Its Characteristics," Data, MDPI, vol. 8(2), pages 1-13, January.
    15. Valentina Krysanova & Fred F. Hattermann & Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz, 2020. "How evaluation of hydrological models influences results of climate impact assessment—an editorial," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 163(3), pages 1121-1141, December.
    16. Ioannis M. Kourtis & Ioannis Nalbantis & George Tsakiris & Basil Ε. Psiloglou & Vassilios A. Tsihrintzis, 2023. "Updating IDF Curves Under Climate Change: Impact on Rainfall-Induced Runoff in Urban Basins," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 37(6), pages 2403-2428, May.
    17. Tung-Tsan Chen & Wei-Ling Hsu & Wen-Kuang Chen, 2020. "An Assessment of Water Resources in the Taiwan Strait Island Using the Water Poverty Index," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(6), pages 1-22, March.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:34:y:2020:i:14:d:10.1007_s11269-020-02670-w. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.