IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/waterr/v34y2020i11d10.1007_s11269-020-02634-0.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Flood Frequency Analysis of Interconnected Rivers by Copulas

Author

Listed:
  • Esmaeel Dodangeh

    (Sari Agriculture Science and Natural Resources University)

  • Vijay P. Singh

    (Texas A & M University)

  • Binh Thai Pham

    (Duy Tan University)

  • Jiabo Yin

    (Wuhan University)

  • Guang Yang

    (University of Wisconsin-Madison)

  • Amirhosein Mosavi

    (Ton Duc Thang University
    Ton Duc Thang University)

Abstract

Flood frequency analysis (FFA) considering the confluence of interconnected rivers is important for hydraulic structures (such as dams or diversions) design, but it has received little attention. This study develops a copula-based method for FFA and quantile estimation considering the confluence of two interconnected rivers, along with the uncertainty estimation by a nonparametric bootstrapping algorithm. Flood probability distribution and return periods are estimated for the two rivers by mapping from bivariate to univariate peak flow quantile estimation. The methodology is applied to the case study of Qezel Ozan and Shahrud Rivers which merge to one of the largest reservoir dams in Iran: Sefidrud (Manjil) dam. According to the results from Peak flow records from Gilvan station (GPF) at Qezel Ozan River and from Loshan station (LCF) at Shahrud River, Gaussian copula with Weibull and gamma margins fits best. Also, it shows that some peak flow quantiles with the same magnitudes have a different probability of occurrences at the confluence of the rivers, and the bivariate estimation uncertainty usually plays an important role in FFA. These findings suggest the use of bivariate instead of univariate distributions to the peak flows at the confluence of interconnected rivers, in which the sampling uncertainty should be considered.

Suggested Citation

  • Esmaeel Dodangeh & Vijay P. Singh & Binh Thai Pham & Jiabo Yin & Guang Yang & Amirhosein Mosavi, 2020. "Flood Frequency Analysis of Interconnected Rivers by Copulas," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 34(11), pages 3533-3549, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:34:y:2020:i:11:d:10.1007_s11269-020-02634-0
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-020-02634-0
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11269-020-02634-0
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11269-020-02634-0?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. W. Breymann & A. Dias & P. Embrechts, 2003. "Dependence structures for multivariate high-frequency data in finance," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(1), pages 1-14.
    2. White, Halbert, 1982. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Misspecified Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(1), pages 1-25, January.
    3. Bahram Saghafian & Hossein Mehdikhani, 2014. "Drought characterization using a new copula-based trivariate approach," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 72(3), pages 1391-1407, July.
    4. Reza Modarres, 2008. "Regional Frequency Distribution Type of Low Flow in North of Iran by L-moments," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 22(7), pages 823-841, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. R. K. Jaiswal & T. R. Nayak & A. K. Lohani & R. V. Galkate, 2022. "Regional flood frequency modeling for a large basin in India," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 111(2), pages 1845-1861, March.
    2. Ming Zhong & Ting Zeng & Tao Jiang & Huan Wu & Xiaohong Chen & Yang Hong, 2021. "A Copula-Based Multivariate Probability Analysis for Flash Flood Risk under the Compound Effect of Soil Moisture and Rainfall," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 35(1), pages 83-98, January.
    3. Zhang, Yaling & Guo, Li & Liang, Chuan & Zhao, Lu & Wang, Junqin & Zhan, Cun & Jiang, Shouzheng, 2022. "Encounter risk analysis of crop water requirements and effective precipitation based on the copula method in the Hilly Area of Southwest China," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 266(C).
    4. Yuming Huang & Yanjie Li & Min Liu & Liang Xiao & Fuwan Gan & Jian Jiao, 2022. "Uncertainty Analysis of Flood Control Design Under Multiple Floods," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(4), pages 1175-1189, March.
    5. Na Li & Shenglian Guo & Feng Xiong & Jun Wang & Yuzuo Xie, 2022. "Comparative Study of Flood Coincidence Risk Estimation Methods in the Mainstream and its Tributaries," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(2), pages 683-698, January.
    6. Sabrina Ali & Ataur Rahman, 2022. "Development of a kriging-based regional flood frequency analysis technique for South-East Australia," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 114(3), pages 2739-2765, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Zhang, Shulin & Okhrin, Ostap & Zhou, Qian M. & Song, Peter X.-K., 2016. "Goodness-of-fit test for specification of semiparametric copula dependence models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 193(1), pages 215-233.
    2. Shulin Zhang & Qian M. Zhou & Huazhen Lin, 2021. "Goodness-of-fit test of copula functions for semi-parametric univariate time series models," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 62(4), pages 1697-1721, August.
    3. Härdle Wolfgang Karl & Okhrin Ostap & Okhrin Yarema, 2013. "Dynamic structured copula models," Statistics & Risk Modeling, De Gruyter, vol. 30(4), pages 361-388, December.
    4. Lahiri Kajal & Yang Liu, 2016. "A non-linear forecast combination procedure for binary outcomes," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 20(4), pages 421-440, September.
    5. Kjersti Aas, 2016. "Pair-Copula Constructions for Financial Applications: A Review," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 4(4), pages 1-15, October.
    6. Schepsmeier, Ulf, 2015. "Efficient information based goodness-of-fit tests for vine copula models with fixed margins: A comprehensive review," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 34-52.
    7. Das, Debojyoti & Bhatia, Vaneet & Kumar, Surya Bhushan & Basu, Sankarshan, 2022. "Do precious metals hedge crude oil volatility jumps?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    8. P.A.V.B. Swamy & I-Lok Chang & Jatinder S. Mehta & William H. Greene & Stephen G. Hall & George S. Tavlas, 2016. "Removing Specification Errors from the Usual Formulation of Binary Choice Models," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 4(2), pages 1-21, June.
    9. Carlo Altavilla & Raffaella Giacomini & Giuseppe Ragusa, 2017. "Anchoring the yield curve using survey expectations," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(6), pages 1055-1068, September.
    10. Fernando Rios-Avila & Gustavo Canavire-Bacarreza, 2018. "Standard-error correction in two-stage optimization models: A quasi–maximum likelihood estimation approach," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 18(1), pages 206-222, March.
    11. Sandy Fréret & Denis Maguain, 2017. "The effects of agglomeration on tax competition: evidence from a two-regime spatial panel model on French data," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 24(6), pages 1100-1140, December.
    12. Ai, Chunrong & Chen, Xiaohong, 2007. "Estimation of possibly misspecified semiparametric conditional moment restriction models with different conditioning variables," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 141(1), pages 5-43, November.
    13. Ayouz, Mourad K. & Remaud, Herve, 2003. "The Internationalization Determinants Of The Small Agro-Food Firms: Hypotheses And Statistical Tests," International Food and Agribusiness Management Review, International Food and Agribusiness Management Association, vol. 5(2), pages 1-27.
    14. Broze, Laurence & Gourieroux, Christian, 1998. "Pseudo-maximum likelihood method, adjusted pseudo-maximum likelihood method and covariance estimators," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 85(1), pages 75-98, July.
    15. Sridhar, Shrihari & Naik, Prasad A. & Kelkar, Ajay, 2017. "Metrics unreliability and marketing overspending," International Journal of Research in Marketing, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 761-779.
    16. Yen, Steven T. & Chern, Wen S. & Lee, Hwang-Jaw, 1991. "Effects Of Income Sources On Household Food Expenditures," 1991 Annual Meeting, August 4-7, Manhattan, Kansas 271167, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    17. Ruoxuan Xiong & Allison Koenecke & Michael Powell & Zhu Shen & Joshua T. Vogelstein & Susan Athey, 2021. "Federated Causal Inference in Heterogeneous Observational Data," Papers 2107.11732, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2023.
    18. Posch, Olaf, 2009. "Structural estimation of jump-diffusion processes in macroeconomics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 153(2), pages 196-210, December.
    19. Koutmos, Dimitrios, 2012. "An intertemporal capital asset pricing model with heterogeneous expectations," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 22(5), pages 1176-1187.
    20. Gregory, Allan W. & McCurdy, Thomas H., 1986. "The unbiasedness hypothesis in the forward foreign exchange market: A specification analysis with application to France, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom and West Germany," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 365-381, April.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:34:y:2020:i:11:d:10.1007_s11269-020-02634-0. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.