IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/waterr/v33y2019i15d10.1007_s11269-019-02396-4.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Analyzing the Variability in Low-Flow Projections under GCM CMIP5 Scenarios

Author

Listed:
  • Mona Ghafouri-Azar

    (Sejong University
    Sejong University)

  • Deg-Hyo Bae

    (Sejong University
    Sejong University)

Abstract

The present study considered the impacts of global climate model (GCM) selection in the Couple Model Intercomparison Phase 5 (CMIP5) scenarios on the low-flow projections for two representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios. The calibrated hydrologic model was applied to project future streamflow for Korean river basins using 13 GCMs and two RCPs (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). A flow duration curve was constructed for each subbasin, and 75th percentiles of each period were considered as the thresholds for low flow. The results showed that there were high variabilities in the low-flow projections due to different internal variability within the GCMs. Some GCMs revealed a significant decrease in low-flow projections (IPSL-CM5A-MR scenario), and others showed a significant increase in low-flow projections (CanESM2 scenario). Selecting a few GCMs, including these extreme GCMs, can lead to different low-flow projections. The comparison of the climate projections for the primary GCMs revealed that the higher temperature and lower precipitation in the IPSL-CM5A-MR model than that in the CanESM2 model led to higher evapotranspiration and lower recharge of the underlying aquifer and, therefore, a significant decrease in the low-flow projection for the IPSL-CM5A-MR model. In addition, there were different uncertainties among the RCPs for the three future periods, which indicated that in addition to the dominant effect of GCM selection on low-flow projections, the selection of an RCP can have a major effect on the results.

Suggested Citation

  • Mona Ghafouri-Azar & Deg-Hyo Bae, 2019. "Analyzing the Variability in Low-Flow Projections under GCM CMIP5 Scenarios," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 33(15), pages 5035-5050, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:33:y:2019:i:15:d:10.1007_s11269-019-02396-4
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-019-02396-4
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11269-019-02396-4
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11269-019-02396-4?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Brij Kishor Pandey & Deepak Khare & Akiyuki Kawasaki & Prabhash K. Mishra, 2019. "Climate Change Impact Assessment on Blue and Green Water by Coupling of Representative CMIP5 Climate Models with Physical Based Hydrological Model," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 33(1), pages 141-158, January.
    2. Kun-xia Yu & Lihua Xiong & Peng Li & Zhanbin Li & Xiang Zhang & Qian Sun, 2018. "Analyzing the Impacts of Climatic and Physiographic Factors on Low Flow Distributions," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 32(3), pages 881-896, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Mona Ghafouri-Azar & Deg-Hyo Bae, 2020. "The Impacts of Water Cycle Components on Streamflow in a Changing Climate of Korea: Historical and Future Trends," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(10), pages 1-20, May.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jan Niel & E. Uytven & P. Willems, 2019. "Uncertainty Analysis of Climate Change Impact on River Flow Extremes Based on a Large Multi-Model Ensemble," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 33(12), pages 4319-4333, September.
    2. Jeewanthi Sirisena & Denie Augustijn & Aftab Nazeer & Janaka Bamunawala, 2022. "Use of Remote-Sensing-Based Global Products for Agricultural Drought Assessment in the Narmada Basin, India," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(20), pages 1-21, October.
    3. Maryam Abbaszadeh & Ommolbanin Bazrafshan & Rasool Mahdavi & Elham Rafiei Sardooi & Sajad Jamshidi, 2023. "Modeling Future Hydrological Characteristics Based on Land Use/Land Cover and Climate Changes Using the SWAT Model," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 37(10), pages 4177-4194, August.
    4. Xiaoyang Tang & Deshan Tang & Fulin Zhang, 2024. "A Framework for Algorithmic Improvement to Mitigate the Effects of Equifinality in the Calibration of High-dimensional Parameters for Hydrological Models," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 38(1), pages 251-267, January.
    5. Swatantra Kumar Dubey & JungJin Kim & Younggu Her & Devesh Sharma & Hanseok Jeong, 2023. "Hydroclimatic Impact Assessment Using the SWAT Model in India—State of the Art Review," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(22), pages 1-40, November.
    6. Junchao Jiang & Leting Lyu & Yuechi Han & Caizhi Sun, 2021. "Effect of Climate Variability on Green and Blue Water Resources in a Temperate Monsoon Watershed, Northeastern China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(4), pages 1-13, February.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Low flow; Uncertainty; CMIP5 scenarios; GCM selection;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:33:y:2019:i:15:d:10.1007_s11269-019-02396-4. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.