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Flow Forecasting in a Watershed using Autoregressive Updating Model

Author

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  • Shirisha Pulukuri

    (National Institute of Technology Warangal (NITW))

  • Venkata Reddy Keesara

    (National Institute of Technology Warangal (NITW))

  • Pratap Deva

    (National Institute of Technology Warangal (NITW))

Abstract

A real-time autoregressive updating model is proposed in this study to forecast the flow in a watershed. The model has two components: (1) Finite Element-Event based distributed rainfall runoff model for runoff simulation and (2) Autoregressive model for updating the error forecast. The efficiency of the runoff updating model depends on the accuracy of the rainfall. Forecasting plays a major role in view of the lead time. In the present study, forecasting is carried out with a lead period of 1 to 3 h. The performance of the integrated model is tested using Nash Sutcliffe efficiency (E) and correlation coefficient (r). The integrated model is applied for Banha, Harsul and Khadakohol watersheds in India. From the results, it can be concluded that the developed model is efficient in flow forecasting on real-time basis in the watersheds.

Suggested Citation

  • Shirisha Pulukuri & Venkata Reddy Keesara & Pratap Deva, 2018. "Flow Forecasting in a Watershed using Autoregressive Updating Model," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 32(8), pages 2701-2716, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:32:y:2018:i:8:d:10.1007_s11269-018-1953-1
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-018-1953-1
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Junhong Zhang & Lu Chen & Vijay Singh & Hongwen Cao & Dangwei Wang, 2015. "Determination of the distribution of flood forecasting error," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 75(2), pages 1389-1402, January.
    2. Junhong Zhang & Lu Chen & Vijay Singh & Wenhong Cao & Dangwei Wang, 2015. "Erratum to: Determination of the distribution of flood forecasting error," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 75(2), pages 2065-2065, January.
    3. Muhammad Ajmal & Muhammad Waseem & Jae-Hyun Ahn & Tae-Woong Kim, 2015. "Improved Runoff Estimation Using Event-Based Rainfall-Runoff Models," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(6), pages 1995-2010, April.
    4. J. Patil & A. Sarangi & O. Singh & A. Singh & T. Ahmad, 2008. "Development of a GIS Interface for Estimation of Runoff from Watersheds," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 22(9), pages 1221-1239, September.
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    Cited by:

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