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Determination of the distribution of flood forecasting error

Author

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  • Junhong Zhang
  • Lu Chen
  • Vijay Singh
  • Hongwen Cao
  • Dangwei Wang

Abstract

Flood forecasting plays an essential role in enhancing the safety of residents downstream and preventing or reducing economic losses. One critical issue in flood risk assessment is the determination of the probability distribution of forecast errors. Several investigations, which have been carried out to analyze the influence of the uncertainty in real-time operation or water resources management, assumed that the relative forecast error was approximately normally distributed. This study investigates whether the flood forecast error follows the normal distribution. Several distributions were fitted to the flood error series, and their performances were analyzed using the data from Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR) and Muma River. Then, the most appropriate distribution was selected. Results show that the assumption of normal distribution is not justified for the flood forecast error series of TGR and Muma River. The use of normal distribution for estimating flood risk may lead to incorrect results. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2015

Suggested Citation

  • Junhong Zhang & Lu Chen & Vijay Singh & Hongwen Cao & Dangwei Wang, 2015. "Determination of the distribution of flood forecasting error," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 75(2), pages 1389-1402, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:75:y:2015:i:2:p:1389-1402
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-014-1385-z
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Jiazheng Lu & Jun Guo & Li Yang & Xunjian Xu, 2017. "Research of reservoir watershed fine zoning and flood forecasting method," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 89(3), pages 1291-1306, December.
    2. Yawei Ning & Wei Ding & Guohua Liang & Bin He & Huicheng Zhou, 2021. "An Analytical Risk Analysis Method for Reservoir Flood Control Operation Considering Forecast Information," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 35(7), pages 2079-2099, May.
    3. He, Zhongzheng & Zhou, Jianzhong & Xie, Mengfei & Jia, Benjun & Bao, Zhengfeng & Qin, Hui & Zhang, Hairong, 2019. "Study on guaranteed output constraints in the long term joint optimal scheduling for the hydropower station group," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 185(C), pages 1210-1224.
    4. P. Shirisha & K. Venkata Reddy & Deva Pratap, 2019. "Real-Time Flow Forecasting in a Watershed Using Rainfall Forecasting Model and Updating Model," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 33(14), pages 4799-4820, November.
    5. Tian Peng & Jianzhong Zhou & Chu Zhang & Na Sun, 2018. "Modeling and Combined Application of Orthogonal Chaotic NSGA-II and Improved TOPSIS to Optimize a Conceptual Hydrological Model," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 32(11), pages 3781-3799, September.
    6. Shirisha Pulukuri & Venkata Reddy Keesara & Pratap Deva, 2018. "Flow Forecasting in a Watershed using Autoregressive Updating Model," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 32(8), pages 2701-2716, June.

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