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Predicting Monthly Spring Discharges Using a Simple Statistical Model

Author

Listed:
  • Nazzareno Diodato
  • Luigi Guerriero
  • Francesco Fiorillo
  • Libera Esposito
  • Paola Revellino
  • Gerardo Grelle
  • Francesco Guadagno

Abstract

Current precipitation and past climate variability induce considerable intermonthly fluctuations in spring discharges. This study presents the DISHMET model (Discharge Hydro-Climatological Model) developed to perform historical spring reconstructions in the lack of physical assumptions. We analyzed discharge data of the Caraventa spring, located on the southern side of Mount La Montagna in Southern Italy, which has been monitored since the 1996s. The La Montagna aquifer is tectonically and litologically complex and deformed bedding controls the groundwater flow. Due to this aspect a parsimonious model should be more suitable than a complex model in spring discharge estimation. Thus, the DISHMET model incorporates monthly and annual precipitation only. The model is able to estimate sufficiently well the monthly fluctuations of groundwater discharge. DISHMET can be easily used to assess historical discharge, even when hydrological data is discontinuously available. The magnitude of this discharge is linked to the frequency and type of weather patterns transiting over the central Mediterranean area during the autumn and winter seasons. It is mainly related to the local precipitation that recharges the Mt. La Montagna aquifer. An analysis of antecedent rainfall and spring discharge reveal moderate to strong relationships. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2014

Suggested Citation

  • Nazzareno Diodato & Luigi Guerriero & Francesco Fiorillo & Libera Esposito & Paola Revellino & Gerardo Grelle & Francesco Guadagno, 2014. "Predicting Monthly Spring Discharges Using a Simple Statistical Model," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(4), pages 969-978, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:28:y:2014:i:4:p:969-978
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-014-0527-0
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Luigi Guerriero & Paola Revellino & Jeffrey A. Coe & Mariano Focareta & Gerardo Grelle & Vincenzo Albanese & Angelo Corazza & Francesco M. Guadagno, 2013. "Multi-temporal Maps of the Montaguto Earth Flow in Southern Italy from 1954 to 2010," Journal of Maps, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(1), pages 135-145, March.
    2. Ana Iglesias & Luis Garrote & Francisco Flores & Marta Moneo, 2007. "Challenges to Manage the Risk of Water Scarcity and Climate Change in the Mediterranean," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 21(5), pages 775-788, May.
    3. Francesco Fiorillo & Francesco Guadagno, 2010. "Karst Spring Discharges Analysis in Relation to Drought Periods, Using the SPI," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 24(9), pages 1867-1884, July.
    4. Nadav Peleg & Efrat Morin & Haim Gvirtzman & Yehouda Enzel, 2012. "Rainfall, spring discharge and past human occupancy in the Eastern Mediterranean," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 112(3), pages 769-789, June.
    5. Giuseppe Mendicino & Pasquale Versace, 2007. "Integrated Drought Watch System: A Case Study in Southern Italy," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 21(8), pages 1409-1428, August.
    6. Stefan Hajkowicz & Kerry Collins, 2007. "A Review of Multiple Criteria Analysis for Water Resource Planning and Management," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 21(9), pages 1553-1566, September.
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    1. Luigi Guerriero & Nazzareno Diodato & Francesco Fiorillo & Paola Revellino & Gerardo Grelle & Francesco Guadagno, 2015. "Reconstruction of long-term earth-flow activity using a hydroclimatological model," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 77(1), pages 1-15, May.
    2. Kulwinder Parmar & Rashmi Bhardwaj, 2015. "River Water Prediction Modeling Using Neural Networks, Fuzzy and Wavelet Coupled Model," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(1), pages 17-33, January.
    3. Yaoze Liu & Sisi Li & Carlington W. Wallace & Indrajeet Chaubey & Dennis C. Flanagan & Lawrence O. Theller & Bernard A. Engel, 2017. "Comparison of Computer Models for Estimating Hydrology and Water Quality in an Agricultural Watershed," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 31(11), pages 3641-3665, September.

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