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A Factorial-based Dynamic Analysis Method for Reservoir Operation Under Fuzzy-stochastic Uncertainties

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  • D. Fu
  • Y. Li
  • G. Huang

Abstract

In this study, a factorial-based fuzzy-stochastic dynamic programming (FFS-DP) method is developed for tackling multiple uncertainties including fuzziness, randomness and their interaction in reservoir operation management (ROM). FFS-DP is framed on the integration of stochastic dynamic programming, fuzzy-Markov chain, vertex analysis and factorial analysis techniques. It can not only deal with the conventional optimization problem for reflecting dynamic and uncertain features in ROM, but also obtain detailed effects of uncertain parameters and their interactions on the system performance. The developed method is applied to a case study of a reservoir operation system, where the local authority is in charge of allocating relative scant water to the downstream municipality. The results obtained can help the local authority identify desired water release policies under uncertain system conditions. Besides, the results simultaneously indicate that significant factors and their interactions can be identified in ROM. Moreover, the results can be further analyzed for generating optimal parameter inputs to obtain maximized system benefits. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2013

Suggested Citation

  • D. Fu & Y. Li & G. Huang, 2013. "A Factorial-based Dynamic Analysis Method for Reservoir Operation Under Fuzzy-stochastic Uncertainties," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(13), pages 4591-4610, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:27:y:2013:i:13:p:4591-4610
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-013-0429-6
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. L. Reis & G. Walters & D. Savic & F. Chaudhry, 2005. "Multi-Reservoir Operation Planning Using Hybrid Genetic Algorithm and Linear Programming (GA-LP): An Alternative Stochastic Approach," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 19(6), pages 831-848, December.
    2. Li, Y.P. & Huang, G.H. & Guo, P. & Yang, Z.F. & Nie, S.L., 2010. "A dual-interval vertex analysis method and its application to environmental decision making under uncertainty," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 200(2), pages 536-550, January.
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    4. Noor Khan & Mukand Babel & Tawatchai Tingsanchali & Roberto Clemente & Huynh Luong, 2012. "Reservoir Optimization-Simulation with a Sediment Evacuation Model to Minimize Irrigation Deficits," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 26(11), pages 3173-3193, September.
    5. Cervellera, Cristiano & Chen, Victoria C.P. & Wen, Aihong, 2006. "Optimization of a large-scale water reservoir network by stochastic dynamic programming with efficient state space discretization," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 171(3), pages 1139-1151, June.
    6. Li, Y.P. & Huang, G.H. & Chen, X., 2011. "Planning regional energy system in association with greenhouse gas mitigation under uncertainty," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 88(3), pages 599-611, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jinping Zhang & Yong Zhao & Weihua Xiao, 2014. "Study on Markov Joint Transition Probability and Encounter Probability of Rainfall and Reference Crop Evapotranspiration in the Irrigation District," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(15), pages 5543-5553, December.
    2. Gaiqiang Yang & Ping Guo & Mo Li & Shiqi Fang & Liudong Zhang, 2016. "An Improved Solving Approach for Interval-Parameter Programming and Application to an Optimal Allocation of Irrigation Water Problem," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(2), pages 701-729, January.
    3. Zhao Liu & Yiping Guo & Lixia Wang & Qing Wang, 2015. "Streamflow Forecast Errors and Their Impacts on Forecast-based Reservoir Flood Control," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(12), pages 4557-4572, September.
    4. Gaiqiang Yang & Ping Guo & Mo Li & Shiqi Fang & Liudong Zhang, 2016. "An Improved Solving Approach for Interval-Parameter Programming and Application to an Optimal Allocation of Irrigation Water Problem," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(2), pages 701-729, January.

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