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Modeling Climate Change Effects on Streams and Reservoirs with HSPF

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  • Serdar Göncü
  • Erdem Albek

Abstract

This study deals with the effects of the expected climate change on the hydrology of watersheds and on water resources. HSPF (Hydrological Simulation Program—Fortran) has been used to model streamflow and reservoir volume as realizations of watershed response. Climate change scenarios have been prepared based on trends expected in western Turkey in the first half of the twenty-first century and a hypothetical watershed with different land uses has been simulated. Changes in streamflow due to landuse, soil type and climate change have been examined using flood frequency and low flow analysis. The simulations have revealed quantitatively the difference among the responses of watersheds with no vegetative cover and with forests or pasture to trends in temperature and precipitation. It has also been found that monthly variations are very important in predicting the future response of watersheds. Significant differences have been observed in streamflows and reservoir volumes on a monthly basis between scenarios, soil types and land uses. Though the effects of temperature and precipitation act to counterbalance their effects on a long-term scale, on a monthly basis they can act to reinforce their effects and create drought periods and floods. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2010

Suggested Citation

  • Serdar Göncü & Erdem Albek, 2010. "Modeling Climate Change Effects on Streams and Reservoirs with HSPF," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 24(4), pages 707-726, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:24:y:2010:i:4:p:707-726
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-009-9466-6
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Goyal, R. K., 2004. "Sensitivity of evapotranspiration to global warming: a case study of arid zone of Rajasthan (India)," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 1-11, September.
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    1. Dong Hoon Lee & Pamela Sofia Fabian & Jin Hwi Kim & Joo-Hyon Kang, 2021. "HSPF-Based Assessment of Inland Nutrient Source Control Strategies to Reduce Algal Blooms in Streams in Response to Future Climate Changes," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(22), pages 1-18, November.
    2. Kang, Mingoo & Park, Seungwoo, 2014. "Modeling water flows in a serial irrigation reservoir system considering irrigation return flows and reservoir operations," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 143(C), pages 131-141.

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