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Monthly Precipitation Forecasting with a Neuro-Fuzzy Model

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  • Changsam Jeong
  • Ju-Young Shin
  • Taesoon Kim
  • Jun-Haneg Heo

Abstract

Quantitative and qualitative monthly precipitation forecasts are produced with ANFIS. To select the proper input variable set from 30 variables, including climatological and hydrological monthly recording data, the forward selection method, which is a wrapper method for feature selection, is applied. The error analysis of the results from training and checking the data sets suggests that 3 variables can be used as a suitable number of inputs for ANFIS, and the best five 3-input-variable sets were selected. The quantitative monthly precipitation forecasts were computed using each 3-input-variable set, and the ensemble averaging method over the five forecasts was used for calculations to reduce the uncertainties in the forecasts and to remove the negative rainfall forecasts. A qualitative forecast that is computed with the quantitative forecast also produced three types of categories that describe the next month’s precipitation condition and was compared with data from the weather agency of Korea. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2012

Suggested Citation

  • Changsam Jeong & Ju-Young Shin & Taesoon Kim & Jun-Haneg Heo, 2012. "Monthly Precipitation Forecasting with a Neuro-Fuzzy Model," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 26(15), pages 4467-4483, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:26:y:2012:i:15:p:4467-4483
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-012-0157-3
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Kostas Moustris & Ioanna Larissi & Panagiotis Nastos & Athanasios Paliatsos, 2011. "Precipitation Forecast Using Artificial Neural Networks in Specific Regions of Greece," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 25(8), pages 1979-1993, June.
    2. Hadi Sanikhani & Ozgur Kisi, 2012. "River Flow Estimation and Forecasting by Using Two Different Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Approaches," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 26(6), pages 1715-1729, April.
    3. Ozgur Kisi & Alireza Nia & Mohsen Gosheh & Mohammad Tajabadi & Azadeh Ahmadi, 2012. "Intermittent Streamflow Forecasting by Using Several Data Driven Techniques," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 26(2), pages 457-474, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Alireza Farrokhi & Saeed Farzin & Sayed-Farhad Mousavi, 2020. "A New Framework for Evaluation of Rainfall Temporal Variability through Principal Component Analysis, Hybrid Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System, and Innovative Trend Analysis Methodology," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 34(10), pages 3363-3385, August.
    2. Kulwinder Parmar & Rashmi Bhardwaj, 2015. "River Water Prediction Modeling Using Neural Networks, Fuzzy and Wavelet Coupled Model," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(1), pages 17-33, January.
    3. Yan-Fang Sang, 2013. "Improved Wavelet Modeling Framework for Hydrologic Time Series Forecasting," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(8), pages 2807-2821, June.
    4. Nariman Valizadeh & Ahmed El-Shafie, 2013. "Forecasting the Level of Reservoirs Using Multiple Input Fuzzification in ANFIS," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(9), pages 3319-3331, July.
    5. R Maheswaran & Rakesh Khosa, 2014. "A Wavelet-Based Second Order Nonlinear Model for Forecasting Monthly Rainfall," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(15), pages 5411-5431, December.

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