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Robust Methods for Identifying Optimal Reservoir Operation Strategies Using Deterministic and Stochastic Formulations

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  • Azadeh Ahmadi
  • Mohammad Karamouz
  • Ali Moridi

Abstract

Water allocation in a competing environment is a major social and economic challenge especially in water stressed semi-arid regions. In developing countries the end users are represented by the water sectors in most parts and conflict over water is resolved at the agency level. In this paper, two reservoir operation optimization models for water allocation to different users are presented. The objective functions of both models are based on the Nash Bargaining Theory which can incorporate the utility functions of the water users and the stakeholders as well as their relative authorities on the water allocation process. The first model is called GA–KNN (Genetic Algorithm–K Nearest Neighborhood) optimization model. In this model, in order to expedite the convergence process of GA, a KNN scheme for estimating initial solutions is used. Also KNN is utilized to develop the operating rules in each month based on the derived optimization results. The second model is called the Bayesian Stochastic GA (BSGA) optimization model. This model considers the joint probability distribution of inflow and its forecast to the reservoir. In this way, the intrinsic and forecast uncertainties of inflow to the reservoir are incorporated. In order to test the proposed models, they are applied to the Satarkhan reservoir system in the north-western part of Iran. The models have unique features in incorporating uncertainties, facilitating the convergence process of GA, and handling finer state variable discretization and utilizing reliability based utility functions for water user sectors. They are compared with the alternative models. Comparisons show the significant value of the proposed models in reservoir operation and supplying the demands of different water users. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2010

Suggested Citation

  • Azadeh Ahmadi & Mohammad Karamouz & Ali Moridi, 2010. "Robust Methods for Identifying Optimal Reservoir Operation Strategies Using Deterministic and Stochastic Formulations," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 24(11), pages 2527-2552, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:24:y:2010:i:11:p:2527-2552
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-009-9566-3
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Nash, John, 1950. "The Bargaining Problem," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 18(2), pages 155-162, April.
    2. Varian, Hal R., 1995. "Coase, competition, and compensation," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 13-27, May.
    3. John C. Harsanyi & Reinhard Selten, 1972. "A Generalized Nash Solution for Two-Person Bargaining Games with Incomplete Information," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 18(5-Part-2), pages 80-106, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Sabah Fayaed & Ahmed El-Shafie & Othman Jaafar, 2013. "Integrated Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Stochastic Dynamic Programming (SDP) Model for Optimal Release Policy," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(10), pages 3679-3696, August.
    2. Ali Assani & Raphaëlle Landry & Jonathan Daigle & Alain Chalifour, 2011. "Reservoirs Effects on the Interannual Variability of Winter and Spring Streamflow in the St-Maurice River Watershed (Quebec, Canada)," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 25(14), pages 3661-3675, November.
    3. K. Ramakrishnan & C. Suribabu & T. Neelakantan, 2010. "Crop Calendar Adjustment Study for Sathanur Irrigation System in India Using Genetic Algorithm," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 24(14), pages 3835-3851, November.
    4. Jianan Qin & Xiang Fu & Shaoming Peng & Yuni Xu & Jie Huang & Sha Huang, 2019. "Asymmetric Bargaining Model for Water Resource Allocation over Transboundary Rivers," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(10), pages 1-23, May.
    5. Salman Sharifazari & Shahab Araghinejad, 2015. "Development of a Nonparametric Model for Multivariate Hydrological Monthly Series Simulation Considering Climate Change Impacts," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(14), pages 5309-5322, November.
    6. Behrang Beiranvand & Parisa-Sadat Ashofteh, 2023. "A Systematic Review of Optimization of Dams Reservoir Operation Using the Meta-heuristic Algorithms," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 37(9), pages 3457-3526, July.
    7. Parisa Noorbeh & Abbas Roozbahani & Hamid Kardan Moghaddam, 2020. "Annual and Monthly Dam Inflow Prediction Using Bayesian Networks," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 34(9), pages 2933-2951, July.
    8. Mingxiang Yang & Hao Wang & Yunzhong Jiang & Xing Lu & Zhao Xu & Guangdong Sun, 2020. "GECA Proposed Ensemble–KNN Method for Improved Monthly Runoff Forecasting," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 34(2), pages 849-863, January.
    9. Javad Shafiee Neyestanak & Abbas Roozbahani, 2021. "Comprehensive Risk Assessment of Urban Wastewater Reuse in Water Supply Alternatives Using Hybrid Bayesian Network Model," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 35(14), pages 5049-5072, November.

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