IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/waterr/v22y2008i5p621-633.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A Risk Assessment Model of Water Shortage Based on Information Diffusion Technology and its Application in Analyzing Carrying Capacity of Water Resources

Author

Listed:
  • L. Feng
  • C. Huang

Abstract

A risk assessment model for water shortage was constructed from the risk analysis method based on the information diffusion theory. The application of this model was demonstrated in the city of Jinhua in Zhejiang Province, China. The study indicates that the present model is more stable and effective when compared with the traditional model, based on analytical results from a small sample. The risk assessment result was used to analyze the carrying capacity of water resources from an ecological angle. The author advances that the carrying capacity of water resources should be defined as the maximum bearing capacity of water resources for human activity in certain stages of social development under the sound circle of the ecological system. Further study on Jinhua was also performed in the paper, and the result indicates that water shortage in this city is not of the relevant type of water source and can classified in terms of water quality type as well as water conservancy. In order to verify the result of the theoretical investigation in the present paper, the author also simulates the dynamic changing process of carrying capacity of water resources under the condition of enforcement of the future policy in the city. The simulation uses the model of system dynamics (SD), according to the historical data of the city over twenty years and the governmental standard for comprehensively building a comfortable society by 2020. The paper simultaneously indicates that the primary scheme of unilaterally pursuing the fast development of the economy at the expense of environment and the secondary scheme of taking environmental protection as the primary goal via slowing of development of the economy are undesirable for Jinhua. Furthermore, a scheme of simultaneously giving consideration to both economic development and environmental protection should be the preferred scheme. However, if the present amount of water supply is constantly maintained in the near future, the requirement for water supply will not be satisfied under the balanced considerations of economy and environment. The carrying capacity of water resources in this region can be effectively improved only under the situation of not only strengthening the investment in environmental protection but also increasing income and reducing expenditure year after year. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2008

Suggested Citation

  • L. Feng & C. Huang, 2008. "A Risk Assessment Model of Water Shortage Based on Information Diffusion Technology and its Application in Analyzing Carrying Capacity of Water Resources," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 22(5), pages 621-633, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:22:y:2008:i:5:p:621-633
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-007-9182-z
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s11269-007-9182-z
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11269-007-9182-z?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Elfreda A. Chatman, 1986. "Diffusion theory: A review and test of a conceptual model in information diffusion," Journal of the American Society for Information Science, Association for Information Science & Technology, vol. 37(6), pages 377-386, November.
    2. Dirk Verschuren & Kathleen R. Laird & Brian F. Cumming, 2000. "Rainfall and drought in equatorial east Africa during the past 1,100 years," Nature, Nature, vol. 403(6768), pages 410-414, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Maryam Ghashghaei & Ali Bagheri & Saeed Morid, 2013. "Rainfall-runoff Modeling in a Watershed Scale Using an Object Oriented Approach Based on the Concepts of System Dynamics," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(15), pages 5119-5141, December.
    2. Wei Qian & Chun Fu & Zhongzheng He, 2023. "Study on Evaluation of Order Degree of Water Resources Coupling System Considering Time Series Characteristics—Take Jiangxi Province as an Example," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(19), pages 1-17, September.
    3. Jing Wang & Feng Fang & Qiang Zhang & Jinsong Wang & Yubi Yao & Wei Wang, 2016. "Risk evaluation of agricultural disaster impacts on food production in southern China by probability density method," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 83(3), pages 1605-1634, September.
    4. Kaveh Madani & Miguel Mariño, 2009. "System Dynamics Analysis for Managing Iran’s Zayandeh-Rud River Basin," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 23(11), pages 2163-2187, September.
    5. Chengzu Bai & Ren Zhang & Longxia Qian & Yaning Wu, 2017. "A fuzzy graph evolved by a new adaptive Bayesian framework and its applications in natural hazards," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 87(2), pages 899-918, June.
    6. Ning Zhang & Zichen Wang & Lan Zhang & Xiao Yang, 2021. "Assessment of Water Resources Carrying Risk and the Coping Behaviors of the Government and the Public," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(14), pages 1-20, July.
    7. Qian Zhang & Xiujuan Liang & Zhang Fang & Tao Jiang & Yubo Wang & Lei Wang, 2016. "Urban water resources allocation and shortage risk mapping with support vector machine method," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 81(2), pages 1209-1228, March.
    8. Lu Hao & Xiaoyu Zhang & Shoudong Liu, 2012. "Risk assessment to China’s agricultural drought disaster in county unit," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 61(2), pages 785-801, March.
    9. Yansong Zhang & Yujie Wei & Yu Mao, 2023. "Sustainability Assessment of Regional Water Resources in China Based on DPSIR Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(10), pages 1-20, May.
    10. Olya, Hossein G.T. & Alipour, Habib, 2015. "Risk assessment of precipitation and the tourism climate index," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 73-80.
    11. Yonghua Zhu & Sam Drake & Haishen Lü & Jun Xia, 2010. "Analysis of Temporal and Spatial Differences in Eco-environmental Carrying Capacity Related to Water in the Haihe River Basins, China," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 24(6), pages 1089-1105, April.
    12. Elmira Hassanzadeh & Mahdi Zarghami & Yousef Hassanzadeh, 2012. "Determining the Main Factors in Declining the Urmia Lake Level by Using System Dynamics Modeling," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 26(1), pages 129-145, January.
    13. Jakub Żywiec & Dawid Szpak & Izabela Piegdoń & Krzysztof Boryczko & Katarzyna Pietrucha-Urbanik & Barbara Tchórzewska-Cieślak & Janusz Rak, 2023. "An Approach to Assess the Water Resources Reliability and Its Management," Resources, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-14, January.
    14. Drupp, Moritz A. & Baumgärtner, Stefan & Meyer, Moritz & Quaas, Martin F. & von Wehrden, Henrik, 2020. "Between Ostrom and Nordhaus: The research landscape of sustainability economics," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 172(C).
    15. Qian Zhang & Xiujuan Liang & Zhang Fang & Tao Jiang & Yubo Wang & Lei Wang, 2016. "Urban water resources allocation and shortage risk mapping with support vector machine method," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 81(2), pages 1209-1228, March.
    16. Xiao-meng Song & Fan-zhe Kong & Che-sheng Zhan, 2011. "Assessment of Water Resources Carrying Capacity in Tianjin City of China," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 25(3), pages 857-873, February.
    17. Bo Li & Jingyu Su & Donghui Ma & Wei Wang, 2015. "The study on forecasting the surface rupture width under strong earthquake based on information diffusion methodology," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 75(2), pages 1871-1882, January.
    18. Zhiying Shao & Fengping Wu & Fang Li & Yue Zhao & Xia Xu, 2020. "System Dynamics Model for Evaluating Socio-Economic Impacts of Different Water Diversion Quantity from Transboundary River Basins—A Case Study of Xinjiang," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(23), pages 1-24, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Feng, Li-Hua & Zhang, Xing-Cai & Luo, Gao-Yuan, 2008. "Application of system dynamics in analyzing the carrying capacity of water resources in Yiwu City, China," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 79(3), pages 269-278.
    2. Christoph Safferling & Aaron Lowen, 2011. "Economics in the Kingdom of Loathing: Analysis of Virtual Market Data," Working Paper Series of the Department of Economics, University of Konstanz 2011-30, Department of Economics, University of Konstanz.
    3. Tsegaye Tadesse & Menghestab Haile & Gabriel Senay & Brian D. Wardlow & Cody L. Knutson, 2008. "The need for integration of drought monitoring tools for proactive food security management in sub‐Saharan Africa," Natural Resources Forum, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 32(4), pages 265-279, November.
    4. Bingqing Zhang & Nathan J. Chellman & Jed O. Kaplan & Loretta J. Mickley & Takamitsu Ito & Xuan Wang & Sophia M. Wensman & Drake McCrimmon & Jørgen Peder Steffensen & Joseph R. McConnell & Pengfei Liu, 2024. "Improved biomass burning emissions from 1750 to 2010 using ice core records and inverse modeling," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-10, December.
    5. Yu Xiaobing & Li Chenliang & Huo Tongzhao & Ji Zhonghui, 2021. "Information diffusion theory-based approach for the risk assessment of meteorological disasters in the Yangtze River Basin," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 107(3), pages 2337-2362, July.
    6. Rick Hogeboom & Pieter Oel & Maarten Krol & Martijn Booij, 2015. "Modelling the Influence of Groundwater Abstractions on the Water Level of Lake Naivasha, Kenya Under Data-Scarce Conditions," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(12), pages 4447-4463, September.
    7. Deanne Bird & Matthew Roberts & Dale Dominey-Howes, 2008. "Usage of an early warning and information system Web-site for real-time seismicity in Iceland," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 47(1), pages 75-94, October.
    8. Mahdi Omidi & Qingfei Min & Ali Omidi, 2017. "Multi-level analysis framework for reviewing IDT-based studies," Cogent Business & Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(1), pages 1339338-133, January.
    9. Chengzhi Niu & Hong He & Yunfei Qi & Shoujie Wang, 2024. "Can Participation in the Green Standard-Setting Process Promote Green Innovation in Heavy-Pollution Firms? Evidence from China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(14), pages 1-29, July.
    10. Wilson Kalisa & Tertsea Igbawua & Fanan Ujoh & Igbalumun S. Aondoakaa & Jean Nepomuscene Namugize & Jiahua Zhang, 2021. "Spatio-temporal variability of dry and wet conditions over East Africa from 1982 to 2015 using quantile regression model," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 106(3), pages 2047-2076, April.
    11. Willy, Daniel Kyalo & Kuhn, Arnim & Holm-Müller, Karin, 2012. "Payments for Environmental Services (PES) and the Characteristics of Social Ecological Systems: the Case of Lake Naivasha Basin," Discussion Papers 162880, University of Bonn, Institute for Food and Resource Economics.
    12. Monika Baumanova, 2023. "The Element of Water in the Built Environment on the Precolonial Kenya Coast," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-13, January.
    13. Dongling Li & Longbin Sha & Jialin Li & Hui Jiang & Yanguang Liu & Yanni Wu, 2017. "Summer Sea-Surface Temperatures and Climatic Events in Vaigat Strait, West Greenland, during the Last 5000 Years," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(5), pages 1-16, April.
    14. Yangzong Cidan & Hongyan Li & Yunqing Xuan & Hong Sun & Fang You, 2022. "Runoff Forecast for the Flood Season Based on Physical Factors and Their Effect Process and Its Application in the Second Songhua River Basin, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(17), pages 1-13, August.
    15. Shimelis Setegn & V. Chowdary & B. Mal & Fikadu Yohannes & Yasuyuki Kono, 2011. "Water Balance Study and Irrigation Strategies for Sustainable Management of a Tropical Ethiopian Lake: A Case Study of Lake Alemaya," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 25(9), pages 2081-2107, July.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:22:y:2008:i:5:p:621-633. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.