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Rainfall and drought in equatorial east Africa during the past 1,100 years

Author

Listed:
  • Dirk Verschuren

    (Limnological Research Center, University of Minnesota
    University of Gent)

  • Kathleen R. Laird

    (Paleoecological Environmental Assessment and Research Laboratory, Queen's University)

  • Brian F. Cumming

    (Paleoecological Environmental Assessment and Research Laboratory, Queen's University)

Abstract

Knowledge of natural long-term rainfall variability is essential for water-resource and land-use management in sub-humid regions of the world. In tropical Africa, data relevant to determining this variability are scarce because of the lack of long instrumental climate records and the limited potential of standard high-resolution proxy records such as tree rings and ice cores1,2,3. Here we present a decade-scale reconstruction of rainfall and drought in equatorial east Africa over the past 1,100 years, based on lake-level and salinity fluctuations of Lake Naivasha (Kenya) inferred from three different palaeolimnological proxies: sediment stratigraphy and the species compositions of fossil diatom and midge assemblages. Our data indicate that, over the past millennium, equatorial east Africa has alternated between contrasting climate conditions, with significantly drier climate than today during the ‘Medieval Warm Period’ (∼ ad 1000–1270) and a relatively wet climate during the ‘Little Ice Age’ (∼ ad 1270–1850) which was interrupted by three prolonged dry episodes. We also find strong chronological links between the reconstructed history of natural long-term rainfall variation and the pre-colonial cultural history of east Africa4, highlighting the importance of a detailed knowledge of natural long-term rainfall fluctuations for sustainable socio-economic development.

Suggested Citation

  • Dirk Verschuren & Kathleen R. Laird & Brian F. Cumming, 2000. "Rainfall and drought in equatorial east Africa during the past 1,100 years," Nature, Nature, vol. 403(6768), pages 410-414, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:nature:v:403:y:2000:i:6768:d:10.1038_35000179
    DOI: 10.1038/35000179
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    Cited by:

    1. L. Feng & C. Huang, 2008. "A Risk Assessment Model of Water Shortage Based on Information Diffusion Technology and its Application in Analyzing Carrying Capacity of Water Resources," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 22(5), pages 621-633, May.
    2. Yangzong Cidan & Hongyan Li & Yunqing Xuan & Hong Sun & Fang You, 2022. "Runoff Forecast for the Flood Season Based on Physical Factors and Their Effect Process and Its Application in the Second Songhua River Basin, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(17), pages 1-13, August.
    3. Feng, Li-Hua & Zhang, Xing-Cai & Luo, Gao-Yuan, 2008. "Application of system dynamics in analyzing the carrying capacity of water resources in Yiwu City, China," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 79(3), pages 269-278.
    4. Wilson Kalisa & Tertsea Igbawua & Fanan Ujoh & Igbalumun S. Aondoakaa & Jean Nepomuscene Namugize & Jiahua Zhang, 2021. "Spatio-temporal variability of dry and wet conditions over East Africa from 1982 to 2015 using quantile regression model," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 106(3), pages 2047-2076, April.
    5. Willy, Daniel Kyalo & Kuhn, Arnim & Holm-Müller, Karin, 2012. "Payments for Environmental Services (PES) and the Characteristics of Social Ecological Systems: the Case of Lake Naivasha Basin," Discussion Papers 162880, University of Bonn, Institute for Food and Resource Economics.
    6. Monika Baumanova, 2023. "The Element of Water in the Built Environment on the Precolonial Kenya Coast," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-13, January.
    7. Tsegaye Tadesse & Menghestab Haile & Gabriel Senay & Brian D. Wardlow & Cody L. Knutson, 2008. "The need for integration of drought monitoring tools for proactive food security management in sub‐Saharan Africa," Natural Resources Forum, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 32(4), pages 265-279, November.
    8. Bingqing Zhang & Nathan J. Chellman & Jed O. Kaplan & Loretta J. Mickley & Takamitsu Ito & Xuan Wang & Sophia M. Wensman & Drake McCrimmon & Jørgen Peder Steffensen & Joseph R. McConnell & Pengfei Liu, 2024. "Improved biomass burning emissions from 1750 to 2010 using ice core records and inverse modeling," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-10, December.
    9. Rick Hogeboom & Pieter Oel & Maarten Krol & Martijn Booij, 2015. "Modelling the Influence of Groundwater Abstractions on the Water Level of Lake Naivasha, Kenya Under Data-Scarce Conditions," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(12), pages 4447-4463, September.
    10. Shimelis Setegn & V. Chowdary & B. Mal & Fikadu Yohannes & Yasuyuki Kono, 2011. "Water Balance Study and Irrigation Strategies for Sustainable Management of a Tropical Ethiopian Lake: A Case Study of Lake Alemaya," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 25(9), pages 2081-2107, July.
    11. Dongling Li & Longbin Sha & Jialin Li & Hui Jiang & Yanguang Liu & Yanni Wu, 2017. "Summer Sea-Surface Temperatures and Climatic Events in Vaigat Strait, West Greenland, during the Last 5000 Years," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(5), pages 1-16, April.

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