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Additive outliers in INAR(1) models

Author

Listed:
  • Mátyás Barczy
  • Márton Ispány
  • Gyula Pap
  • Manuel Scotto
  • Maria Silva

Abstract

In this paper the integer-valued autoregressive model of order one, contaminated with additive outliers is studied in some detail. Moreover, parameter estimation is also addressed. Supposing that the timepoints of the outliers are known but their sizes are unknown, we prove that the conditional least squares (CLS) estimators of the offspring and innovation means are strongly consistent. In contrast, however, the CLS estimators of the outliers’ sizes are not strongly consistent, although they converge to a random limit with probability 1. We also prove that the joint CLS estimator of the offspring and innovation means is asymptotically normal. Conditionally on the values of the process at the timepoints neighboring to the outliers’ occurrences, the joint CLS estimator of the sizes of the outliers is also asymptotically normal. Copyright Springer-Verlag 2012

Suggested Citation

  • Mátyás Barczy & Márton Ispány & Gyula Pap & Manuel Scotto & Maria Silva, 2012. "Additive outliers in INAR(1) models," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 53(4), pages 935-949, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:stpapr:v:53:y:2012:i:4:p:935-949
    DOI: 10.1007/s00362-011-0398-x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Christian Weiß, 2008. "Thinning operations for modeling time series of counts—a survey," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer;German Statistical Society, vol. 92(3), pages 319-341, August.
    2. Bovas Abraham & Alice Chuang, 1993. "Expectation‐Maximization Algorithms And The Estimation Of Time Series Models In The Presence Of Outliers," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(3), pages 221-234, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. Paolo Gorgi, 2020. "Beta–negative binomial auto‐regressions for modelling integer‐valued time series with extreme observations," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 82(5), pages 1325-1347, December.
    2. Aknouche, Abdelhakim & Scotto, Manuel, 2022. "A multiplicative thinning-based integer-valued GARCH model," MPRA Paper 112475, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Stella Kitromilidou & Konstantinos Fokianos, 2016. "Mallows’ quasi-likelihood estimation for log-linear Poisson autoregressions," Statistical Inference for Stochastic Processes, Springer, vol. 19(3), pages 337-361, October.
    4. Wooi Chen Khoo & Seng Huat Ong & Atanu Biswas, 2017. "Modeling time series of counts with a new class of INAR(1) model," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 58(2), pages 393-416, June.
    5. Predrag M. Popović & Miroslav M. Ristić & Aleksandar S. Nastić, 2016. "A geometric bivariate time series with different marginal parameters," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 57(3), pages 731-753, September.
    6. Wanbo Lu & Rui Ke, 2019. "A generalized least squares estimation method for the autoregressive conditional duration model," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 60(1), pages 123-146, February.
    7. Wagner Barreto-Souza, 2015. "Zero-Modified Geometric INAR(1) Process for Modelling Count Time Series with Deflation or Inflation of Zeros," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(6), pages 839-852, November.

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