IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/stmapp/v33y2024i3d10.1007_s10260-024-00756-y.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The local distribution of in-work poverty and sectoral employment: an analysis of local dynamics in Italy

Author

Listed:
  • Giovanni Tonutti

    (Scuola Normale Superiore
    World Bank Group)

  • Andrea Garnero

    (OECD
    Institute of Labor Economics IZA)

  • Gaia Bertarelli

    (Ca’Foscari University of Venice)

  • Monica Pratesi

    (Italian National Institute of Statistic ISTAT
    University of Pisa)

Abstract

In-work poverty has risen to become a key feature of European societies. In 2017, the percentage of workers at risk of low pay in Italy reached an estimated 25% and the issue rose to the forefront of the public and political debate. Yet, due to data limitations, few studies analysed the local distribution of this phenomenon and investigated the macro-determinants associated with its rise. By applying Small Area Estimates (SAE) to EU-SILC data we obtain a novel map of the distribution of in-work poverty in Italy, defined as the share of workers at risk of low pay (AROLP) between 2008 and 2017. The unit of analysis of Local Labour Systems, a non-administrative unit based on commuter flows, highlights the deepening of Italian dualism between Northern and Southern areas, as well as rising within-region wage inequality. By means of a panel fixed-effects model linking estimates of AROLP with data on local sectoral employment, we observe that growth in low-skill sectors such as agriculture is associated with increases in AROLP incidence. On the contrary trends of low pay are negatively associated with the growth of manufacturing and construction sectors, and jobs in non-market services, such as public sector jobs. In addition, variations in overall employment represent the strongest predictor for dynamics of low-pay incidence.

Suggested Citation

  • Giovanni Tonutti & Andrea Garnero & Gaia Bertarelli & Monica Pratesi, 2024. "The local distribution of in-work poverty and sectoral employment: an analysis of local dynamics in Italy," Statistical Methods & Applications, Springer;Società Italiana di Statistica, vol. 33(3), pages 973-998, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:stmapp:v:33:y:2024:i:3:d:10.1007_s10260-024-00756-y
    DOI: 10.1007/s10260-024-00756-y
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10260-024-00756-y
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10260-024-00756-y?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Marhuenda, Yolanda & Molina, Isabel & Morales, Domingo, 2013. "Small area estimation with spatio-temporal Fay–Herriot models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 308-325.
    2. Alberto Abadie & Susan Athey & Guido W Imbens & Jeffrey M Wooldridge, 2023. "When Should You Adjust Standard Errors for Clustering?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 138(1), pages 1-35.
    3. Paul Gregg & Stephen Machin & Mariña Fernández‐Salgado, 2014. "Real Wages and Unemployment in the Big Squeeze," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 0(576), pages 408-432, May.
    4. Esther Duflo, 2003. "Grandmothers and Granddaughters: Old-Age Pensions and Intrahousehold Allocation in South Africa," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 17(1), pages 1-25, June.
    5. Tito Boeri & Andrea Ichino & Enrico Moretti & Johanna Posch, 2021. "Wage Equalization and Regional Misallocation: Evidence from Italian and German Provinces [“Regional Wage Disparities and Migration.”]," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 19(6), pages 3249-3292.
    6. Paul Sissons & Anne E Green & Neil Lee, 2018. "Linking the Sectoral Employment Structure and Household Poverty in the United Kingdom," Work, Employment & Society, British Sociological Association, vol. 32(6), pages 1078-1098, December.
    7. Claudio Lucifora & Daria Vigani, 2021. "Losing Control? Unions’ Representativeness, Pirate Collective Agreements, and Wages," Industrial Relations: A Journal of Economy and Society, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 60(2), pages 188-218, April.
    8. David H. Autor & David Dorn, 2013. "The Growth of Low-Skill Service Jobs and the Polarization of the US Labor Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(5), pages 1553-1597, August.
    9. Marianna Belloc & Paolo Naticchioni & Claudia Vittori, 2023. "Urban wage premia, cost of living, and collective bargaining," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 23(1), pages 25-50.
    10. Shelly Lundberg & Robert A. Pollak, 1996. "Bargaining and Distribution in Marriage," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 10(4), pages 139-158, Fall.
    11. G. Datta & M. Ghosh & R. Steorts & J. Maples, 2011. "Bayesian benchmarking with applications to small area estimation," TEST: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer;Sociedad de Estadística e Investigación Operativa, vol. 20(3), pages 574-588, November.
    12. Andrea Garnero, 2018. "The dog that barks doesn’t bite: coverage and compliance of sectoral minimum wages in Italy," IZA Journal of Labor Policy, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 7(1), pages 1-24, December.
    13. repec:bla:jorssa:v:180:y:2017:i:4:p:1163-1190 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Cormier, David & Craypo, Charles, 2000. "The Working Poor and the Working of American Labour Markets," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 24(6), pages 691-708, November.
    15. Faggio, Guilia & Nickell, Stephen, 2005. "The responsiveness of wages to labour market conditions in the UK," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(5), pages 685-696, October.
    16. Filandri, Marianna & Struffolino, Emanuela, 2019. "Individual and household in-work poverty in Europe: understanding the role of labor market characteristics," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 21(1), pages 130-157.
    17. González-Manteiga, W. & Lombardi­a, M.J. & Molina, I. & Morales, D. & Santamari­a, L., 2008. "Analytic and bootstrap approximations of prediction errors under a multivariate Fay-Herriot model," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(12), pages 5242-5252, August.
    18. Neil Foster-McGregor & Doris Hanzl-Weiss & Sandra M. Leitner & Sebastian Leitner & Nirina Rabemiafara & Fadila Sanoussi & Robert Stehrer & Terry Ward, 2012. "Sectoral Employment Effects of Economic Downturns," wiiw Research Reports 379, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Effrosyni Adamopoulou & Ernesto Villanueva, 2020. "Wage Determination and the Bite of Collective Contracts in Italy and Spain: Evidence From the Metalworking Industry," CRC TR 224 Discussion Paper Series crctr224_2020_176, University of Bonn and University of Mannheim, Germany.
    2. Bernardo Fanfani, 2019. "The Employment Effects of Collective Bargaining," Working papers 064, Department of Economics, Social Studies, Applied Mathematics and Statistics (Dipartimento di Scienze Economico-Sociali e Matematico-Statistiche), University of Torino.
    3. Adamopoulou, Effrosyni & Villanueva, Ernesto, 2022. "Wage determination and the bite of collective contracts in Italy and Spain," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    4. Andrea Garnero & Claudio Lucifora, 2020. "Turning A Blind Eye? Compliance To Minimum Wages And Employment," DISCE - Working Papers del Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza def085, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimenti e Istituti di Scienze Economiche (DISCE).
    5. Bavaro, Michele & Raitano, Michele, 2024. "Is working enough to escape poverty? Evidence on low-paid workers in Italy," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 495-511.
    6. Benavent, Roberto & Morales, Domingo, 2016. "Multivariate Fay–Herriot models for small area estimation," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 372-390.
    7. Brändle, Tobias, 2024. "Unions and Collective Bargaining: The Influence on Wages, Employment and Firm Survival," GLO Discussion Paper Series 1457, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    8. Fanfani, Bernardo, 2023. "The employment effects of collective wage bargaining," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 227(C).
    9. Eugene Choo & Shannon Seitz & Aloysius Siow, 2008. "The Collective Marriage Matching Model: Identification, Estimation and Testing," Working Papers tecipa-340, University of Toronto, Department of Economics.
    10. LaFave, Daniel & Thomas, Duncan, 2017. "Extended families and child well-being," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 52-65.
    11. Jan Pablo Burgard & Domingo Morales & Anna-Lena Wölwer, 2022. "Small area estimation of socioeconomic indicators for sampled and unsampled domains," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer;German Statistical Society, vol. 106(2), pages 287-314, June.
    12. Tito Boeri & Andrea Ichino & Enrico Moretti & Johanna Posch, 2021. "Wage Equalization and Regional Misallocation: Evidence from Italian and German Provinces [“Regional Wage Disparities and Migration.”]," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 19(6), pages 3249-3292.
    13. Jérôme Adda & Yarine Fawaz, 2020. "The Health Toll of Import Competition," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 130(630), pages 1501-1540.
    14. Francesconi, Marco & Sonedda, Daniela, 2024. "Does Weaker Employment Protection Lower the Cost of Job Loss?," IZA Discussion Papers 17374, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    15. Bauluz, Luis & Bukowski, Pawel & Fransham, Mark & Lee, Annie Seong & López Forero, Margarita & Novokmet, Filip & Breau, Sébastien & Lee, Neil & Malgouyres, Clément & Schularick, Moritz & Verdugo, Greg, 2023. "Spatial wage inequality in North America and Western Europe: changes between and within local labour markets 1975-2019," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 121290, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    16. Marianna Belloc & Paolo Naticchioni & Claudia Vittori, 2023. "Urban wage premia, cost of living, and collective bargaining," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 23(1), pages 25-50.
    17. Cassidy, Rachel & Groot Bruinderink, Marije & Janssens, Wendy & Morsink, Karlijn, 2021. "The power to protect: Household bargaining and female condom use," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    18. Chigavazira, Abraham & Fisher, Hayley & Robinson, Tim & Zhu, Anna, 2019. "The Consequences of Extending Equitable Property Division Divorce Laws to Cohabitants," IZA Discussion Papers 12102, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    19. Lee, Neil & Clarke, Stephen, 2019. "Do low-skilled workers gain from high-tech employment growth? High-technology multipliers, employment and wages in Britain," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 48(9), pages 1-1.
    20. Boubeta, Miguel & Lombardía, María José & Morales, Domingo, 2017. "Poisson mixed models for studying the poverty in small areas," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 32-47.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:stmapp:v:33:y:2024:i:3:d:10.1007_s10260-024-00756-y. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.